prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 13 Auburn 37 43.6, 138 Western Kentucky 14 5.6
92% 2 Texas Tech 63 78.4, 221 Indiana State 7 6.5
89% 30 California 41 34.6, 152 New Mexico State 13 10.4
88% 182 Alabama State 38 36.2, 231 Alcorn State 3 13.9
88% 4 Texas A&M 44 45.7, 122 Texas State - San Marc 31 2.9
87% 97 Illinois State 42 39.2, 193 Murray State 0 13.8
87% 17 Florida 49 35.2, 100 Kentucky 28 13.9
85% 164 Coastal Carolina 24 31.8, 222 Delaware State 6 10.1
85% 148 William & Mary 56 37.4, 232 Liberty 0 6.5
84% 117 Georgia Southern 48 44.3, 200 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 19.5
84% 26 West Virginia 20 46.6, 163 East Carolina 15 12.4
83% 162 Eastern Kentucky 52 28.7, 210 Tennessee Tech 3 11.2
83% 31 Iowa State 28 32.2, 157 Army 21 8.0
82% 46 Vanderbilt 37 28.7, 135 Richmond 13 8.3
81% 211 Drake 54 36.9, 237 Austin Peay 0 10.6
80% 49 Hawaii 24 36.0, 159 Idaho 0 18.3
79% 168 Central Connecticut 14 21.9, 194 Albany 13 9.5
79% 82 San Diego State 52 30.8, 142 San Jose State 21 16.0
79% 66 Lehigh 28 40.5, 195 Virginia Military 26 16.2
79% 55 Kansas State 54 30.5, 161 North Texas 7 4.8
78% 118 California - Davis 37 23.7, 192 Sacramento State 7 10.9
78% 102 Appalachian State 45 32.6, 188 The Citadel 13 19.7
78% 27 Georgia 23 25.4, 93 Mississippi State 10 12.6
78% 8 Miami - Florida 23 24.3, 28 Colorado 3 10.4
78% 1 Southern California 45 44.8, 43 Oregon 13 21.8
77% 140 Portland State 41 22.8, 176 Northern Colorado 17 12.2
77% 14 Arizona State 42 45.2, 73 Oregon State 24 31.6
76% 77 New Hampshire 49 29.8, 127 Dartmouth 20 16.5
76% 36 Alabama 24 38.6, 96 Arkansas 13 21.1
76% 12 Michigan State 61 47.0, 64 Illinois 14 33.9
75% 174 Stephen F. Austin 40 31.6, 223 Southern Utah 17 20.0
75% 165 Jacksonville State 24 38.1, 217 Southeast Missouri Sta 10 25.8
75% 116 Lafayette 27 27.7, 170 Fordham 10 15.1
75% 74 Colorado State 42 36.2, 106 Nevada - Reno 21 24.9
75% 5 Wisconsin 23 19.4, 10 Michigan 20 9.6
72% 201 Florida A&M 12 28.7, 230 Tennessee State 7 19.5
72% 22 Notre Dame 36 24.2, 68 Washington 17 15.1
71% 67 Delaware 35 36.6, 90 Holy Cross 23 27.5
71% 53 Massachusetts 14 23.9, 88 Rhode Island 6 13.4
70% 228 Jacksonville 55 29.9, 235 Butler 21 16.8
70% 139 Ohio 35 18.5, 153 Kent State 32 12.1
70% 61 Tulsa 37 21.4, 78 Memphis 31 13.5
69% 197 Eastern Illinois 43 26.9, 212 Samford 14 18.3
69% 16 Minnesota 42 35.7, 19 Purdue 35 28.2
67% 180 Bethune - Cookman 63 30.8, 215 Norfolk State 61 22.7
67% 126 Dayton 42 20.3, 204 Morehead State 7 6.9
67% 71 South Carolina 45 23.2, 112 Troy State 20 11.5
65% 203 Elon 12 15.6, 206 North Carolina A&T 9 11.1
65% 62 Virginia 38 28.4, 94 Duke 7 18.0
65% 41 Utah 38 37.0, 50 Air Force 35 29.7
64% 220 Howard 39 28.7, 233 Savannah State 21 22.4
64% 37 Penn State 34 30.6, 81 Northwestern 29 24.9
64% 21 Ohio State 31 21.2, 24 Iowa 6 16.7
63% 121 Arkansas State 66 24.1, 134 Florida International 24 19.0
63% 86 Princeton 20 29.4, 105 San Diego 17 22.3
63% 52 Maryland 22 29.8, 111 Wake Forest 12 22.1
63% 38 Harvard 38 15.7, 56 Brown 35 6.0
62% 166 Idaho State 34 38.6, 167 Eastern Washington 30 34.7
62% 132 Utah State 31 21.3, 123 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 17.8
62% 3 Virginia Tech 51 20.8, 18 Georgia Tech 7 6.9
61% 218 La Salle 29 39.4, 216 Saint Francis - Pennsy 27 35.9
61% 80 Pittsburgh 41 16.2, 99 Youngstown State 0 8.0
60% 156 Northeastern 56 31.1, 149 Towson 41 27.8
60% 129 Columbia 23 20.3, 120 Duquesne 13 17.5
59% 109 Tulane 31 26.3, 151 Southern Methodist 10 24.0
57% 133 Yale 37 13.2, 125 Cornell 17 10.3
57% 92 California Poly 24 20.1, 130 South Dakota State 16 18.0
53% 79 Texas - El Paso 21 33.2, 57 New Mexico 13 32.5
50% 98 Boise State 48 43.0, 70 Bowling Green 20 43.0
48% 199 Georgetown 10 13.3, 208 Stony Brook 7 13.8
48% 181 Marist 38 21.6, 190 Wagner 21 22.2
45% 147 Western Michigan 19 28.0, 160 Temple 16 29.2
44% 173 Hampton 44 31.1, 169 Morgan State 14 32.7
44% 75 Texas Christian 51 15.9, 84 Brigham Young 50 18.0
42% 40 Wyoming 24 19.9, 42 Mississippi 14 21.8
41% 101 Akron 48 25.1, 69 Northern Illinois 42 28.4
38% 143 Central Florida 23 22.1, 91 Marshall 13 26.3
35% 33 Boston College 16 21.3, 20 Clemson 13 29.5
33% 146 Montana State 20 10.2, 83 North Dakota State 17 16.2
30% 225 Jackson State 33 19.1, 207 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 28.5
25% 239 Davidson 48 10.8, 236 Valparaiso 17 22.6
22% 186 Eastern Michigan 23 17.9, 141 Central Michigan 20 32.2
22% 76 South Florida 45 19.8, 9 Louisville 14 36.0
21% 229 Tennessee - Martin 31 20.2, 185 Gardner - Webb 28 40.7
21% 224 Weber State 31 13.5, 172 Northern Arizona 23 27.6
21% 58 North Carolina 31 10.6, 11 North Carolina State 24 32.3
20% 183 Northeast Louisiana 28 9.3, 124 Florida Atlantic 21 22.3
18% 110 Villanova 28 13.2, 29 Pennsylvania 24 33.7
18% 39 Tennessee 30 8.1, 7 Louisiana State 27 26.1
17% 145 Furman 44 17.8, 35 Hofstra 41 37.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.83 24 1.36 35 1.02 16 0.96 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 90 69 64.6 1.07
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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