prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 172 Grambling 56 40.4, 238 Prairie View 7 3.3
92% 13 Boston College 38 49.9, 207 Ball State 0 0.7
90% 139 Western Michigan 31 24.4, 210 Buffalo 21 3.6
88% 126 Dayton 49 30.0, 208 Jacksonville 17 4.3
88% 95 Northern Iowa 41 53.1, 218 Western Illinois 24 27.4
88% 50 Louisville 61 41.7, 152 Florida Atlantic 10 16.3
88% 37 Wyoming 42 40.9, 137 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 17.0
88% 22 Texas A&M 16 44.5, 121 Baylor 13 17.7
87% 151 Hampton 26 28.0, 211 Delaware State 8 6.0
86% 12 California - Los Angel 21 38.0, 75 Washington 17 16.7
86% 1 Virginia Tech 34 28.3, 46 West Virginia 17 7.4
85% 130 Maine 31 31.8, 193 Albany 7 12.1
85% 125 Furman 48 54.4, 221 Gardner - Webb 31 24.2
85% 102 Georgia Southern 49 29.5, 203 Elon 7 9.2
85% 14 Wisconsin 41 35.7, 69 Indiana 24 16.1
85% 7 Florida State 38 35.4, 92 Syracuse 14 8.0
84% 111 Western Kentucky 38 33.9, 200 Indiana State 28 15.0
83% 5 Texas Tech 30 45.2, 61 Kansas 17 24.1
82% 223 Morehead State 58 32.0, 236 Butler 10 14.9
82% 110 Marshall 16 27.9, 168 Southern Methodist 13 11.1
82% 104 Tulane 28 39.6, 201 Southeast Louisiana 21 15.4
82% 76 Alabama - Birmingham 45 34.0, 140 Rice 26 17.3
81% 163 Drake 58 36.9, 234 Davidson 17 8.4
81% 42 Connecticut 47 32.3, 145 Army 13 15.7
80% 116 Montana State 30 39.7, 169 Idaho State 28 24.5
80% 90 California Poly 31 34.6, 197 Northern Colorado 14 11.5
79% 157 Central Connecticut 56 36.5, 222 Saint Peter's 20 13.9
79% 20 Tennessee 27 23.0, 57 Mississippi 10 9.1
78% 220 La Salle 39 24.0, 232 Iona 32 12.3
78% 149 Montana 24 28.8, 195 Weber State 19 14.7
78% 73 Pennsylvania 26 34.0, 156 Dartmouth 9 20.8
78% 4 Miami - Florida 27 24.3, 28 South Florida 7 9.3
77% 132 Bowling Green 70 38.5, 167 Temple 7 25.2
77% 98 Texas State - San Marc 42 29.4, 171 South Dakota State 12 11.0
77% 43 California 28 27.0, 81 Arizona 0 15.5
77% 15 Louisiana State 37 31.1, 86 Mississippi State 7 17.2
76% 33 Iowa 35 27.3, 74 Illinois 7 13.9
76% 16 Auburn 48 27.2, 40 South Carolina 7 15.4
75% 182 Monmouth 36 24.7, 227 Stony Brook 7 14.1
75% 48 Southern Mississippi 33 40.0, 129 East Carolina 7 28.3
74% 178 Virginia Military 10 25.5, 235 Liberty 7 6.6
73% 154 Southern Illinois 30 39.5, 184 Southwest Missouri Sta 23 28.7
73% 106 Lafayette 12 14.8, 175 Georgetown 7 6.9
73% 36 Oregon 44 33.0, 107 Stanford 20 23.0
72% 91 Central Florida 24 29.7, 159 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 20.3
72% 56 New Hampshire 45 29.8, 83 Villanova 17 19.6
71% 82 Princeton 43 24.9, 117 Columbia 3 16.2
70% 3 Texas 51 33.8, 26 Missouri 20 25.9
68% 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 20.2, 233 Alcorn State 7 12.6
68% 24 North Carolina 31 24.7, 31 Utah 17 17.8
67% 192 Wagner 26 28.3, 199 Sacred Heart 21 21.9
67% 135 Colgate 34 25.0, 150 Cornell 20 17.9
67% 94 Miami - Ohio 44 26.6, 105 Cincinnati 16 20.3
67% 54 Fresno State 44 38.3, 60 Toledo 14 32.6
66% 2 Southern California 38 32.0, 11 Arizona State 28 24.8
65% 209 Norfolk State 58 42.0, 231 Savannah State 29 34.7
65% 100 North Dakota State 26 23.0, 113 Nicholls State 13 18.0
64% 206 North Carolina A&T 16 17.7, 219 Tennessee State 3 13.0
64% 188 Florida International 23 26.7, 194 Florida A&M 6 20.4
64% 162 Alabama State 45 22.5, 191 Southern 35 17.1
64% 59 San Diego State 31 34.0, 68 Brigham Young 10 27.3
64% 45 Oklahoma 43 24.8, 49 Kansas State 21 19.5
63% 53 Nebraska 27 16.9, 51 Iowa State 20 13.2
62% 180 Bethune - Cookman 44 44.8, 179 Morgan State 26 41.5
62% 144 Louisiana Tech 34 21.1, 138 New Mexico State 14 17.2
62% 85 Brown 45 26.1, 97 Rhode Island 35 21.4
60% 146 Eastern Michigan 27 29.6, 141 Kent State 20 26.4
59% 72 Texas Christian 49 27.8, 63 New Mexico 28 25.6
53% 142 Nevada - Reno 30 27.6, 165 San Jose State 23 27.0
53% 35 Colorado 34 11.8, 65 Oklahoma State 0 11.2
52% 196 Sacramento State 38 20.8, 186 Northern Arizona 24 20.5
52% 47 Rutgers 37 20.2, 25 Pittsburgh 29 19.5
49% 136 Eastern Kentucky 31 26.3, 153 Jacksonville State 14 26.5
46% 70 James Madison 42 34.4, 87 Hofstra 10 35.3
45% 38 Alabama 31 17.8, 21 Florida 3 18.7
43% 67 Colorado State 41 41.3, 39 Air Force 23 42.5
42% 229 Samford 33 25.0, 215 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 27.1
42% 109 Navy 28 25.7, 118 Duke 21 28.0
41% 77 Oregon State 44 30.1, 52 Washington State 33 31.9
41% 64 Maryland 45 21.8, 32 Virginia 33 24.9
41% 27 Penn State 44 25.6, 10 Minnesota 14 27.6
40% 205 Howard 27 15.6, 213 Charleston Southern 22 17.7
40% 189 Bucknell 27 24.5, 164 Marist 7 26.7
40% 112 Memphis 27 27.9, 71 Texas - El Paso 20 31.4
39% 239 Austin Peay 30 18.7, 237 Valparaiso 20 22.1
39% 214 Texas Southern 17 16.0, 216 Alabama A&M 7 18.7
38% 84 Holy Cross 22 26.6, 80 Yale 19 30.7
38% 19 Notre Dame 49 31.0, 23 Purdue 28 34.5
36% 9 Michigan 34 19.4, 8 Michigan State 31 25.4
35% 115 Houston 30 16.5, 89 Tulsa 23 26.0
33% 170 Eastern Washington 42 21.7, 131 Portland State 24 27.7
33% 161 Coastal Carolina 24 13.5, 148 South Carolina State 23 19.6
27% 230 Tennessee Tech 42 10.7, 204 Murray State 21 19.7
27% 122 Wake Forest 31 19.6, 30 Clemson 27 34.3
27% 88 Lehigh 49 32.8, 41 Harvard 24 44.8
26% 177 Idaho 27 14.5, 119 Utah State 13 23.9
25% 155 Central Michigan 31 19.8, 103 Akron 17 34.6
25% 58 Boise State 44 13.2, 29 Hawaii 41 25.8
22% 166 Northeast Louisiana 31 20.6, 62 Arkansas State 27 36.6
21% 190 Youngstown State 20 7.7, 78 Illinois State 17 27.1
20% 160 Towson 35 18.5, 55 Delaware 31 36.1
19% 187 The Citadel 17 6.2, 128 Western Carolina 7 23.6
16% 228 Saint Francis - Pennsy 35 14.4, 185 Robert Morris 28 32.1
12% 224 Tennessee - Chattanoog 25 16.9, 123 Wofford 13 42.0
10% 181 Middle Tennessee State 17 5.0, 44 Vanderbilt 15 38.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.60 30 1.04 32 0.95 25 1.04 3 0.73 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 72 75.9 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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