prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 90 San Diego 49 58.7, 237 Butler 7 3.1
92% 2 Virginia Tech 41 42.3, 111 Marshall 14 3.4
92% 1 Southern California 42 44.8, 128 Arizona 21 2.2
91% 32 Pittsburgh 38 39.1, 141 Cincinnati 20 11.1
90% 116 Eastern Kentucky 38 41.5, 218 Samford 6 13.8
90% 16 Fresno State 37 44.3, 166 New Mexico State 7 15.4
90% 9 Florida State 41 41.6, 86 Wake Forest 24 15.0
90% 4 Miami - Florida 52 38.3, 117 Duke 7 2.5
88% 28 Boise State 21 53.2, 157 Portland State 14 19.0
87% 67 Brown 37 42.6, 176 Fordham 14 19.3
87% 58 Maryland 38 40.8, 205 Temple 7 10.2
85% 56 Massachusetts 27 36.6, 136 Northeastern 0 16.1
84% 95 Georgia Southern 45 20.7, 175 Western Carolina 7 3.1
83% 36 Florida 35 23.9, 94 Mississippi State 9 6.2
81% 69 Pennsylvania 53 28.7, 152 Bucknell 7 9.7
81% 65 Mississippi 27 29.2, 149 The Citadel 7 10.7
80% 112 Lafayette 14 22.8, 163 Columbia 7 9.0
80% 72 Arkansas 44 36.0, 154 Northeast Louisiana 15 20.4
80% 48 Bowling Green 38 43.0, 120 Ohio 14 24.3
79% 235 Davidson 44 19.0, 238 Austin Peay 6 5.9
79% 170 Wofford 14 20.9, 206 Elon 9 7.0
79% 93 Toledo 30 34.1, 148 Eastern Michigan 3 19.6
79% 44 James Madison 38 34.4, 107 Maine 2 17.0
79% 3 Texas 45 27.4, 31 Oklahoma 12 13.8
78% 198 Tennessee - Chattanoog 24 28.9, 234 Liberty 21 15.1
78% 155 Hampton 52 28.6, 216 Gardner - Webb 21 16.6
77% 193 Grambling 37 28.9, 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 22 17.0
77% 180 Virginia Military 34 24.1, 224 Charleston Southern 12 6.8
77% 133 Eastern Washington 42 37.5, 199 Northern Arizona 14 24.5
77% 110 Dayton 25 34.7, 197 Drake 17 19.6
77% 87 Texas State - San Marc 30 41.7, 185 Southeast Louisiana 15 26.7
76% 231 Alcorn State 22 17.0, 236 Prairie View 10 7.3
76% 169 Jacksonville State 28 29.5, 226 Murray State 23 17.6
76% 129 Montana State 27 33.2, 194 Weber State 24 20.6
76% 66 South Carolina 44 31.4, 98 Kentucky 16 20.4
76% 52 Connecticut 26 24.8, 79 Syracuse 7 13.9
75% 142 South Carolina State 35 36.0, 215 Norfolk State 21 22.5
75% 132 Akron 13 25.5, 200 Buffalo 7 14.3
75% 91 Yale 13 22.5, 137 Dartmouth 0 10.8
75% 41 Missouri 38 19.4, 105 Oklahoma State 31 10.5
75% 19 Boston College 28 25.7, 59 Virginia 17 11.8
74% 190 Marist 27 42.6, 220 La Salle 0 31.6
74% 179 Eastern Illinois 48 24.1, 222 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 15.0
73% 151 Alabama State 44 28.9, 210 Jackson State 23 18.3
70% 122 Troy State 13 21.9, 182 North Texas 10 13.6
70% 68 Indiana 36 31.4, 80 Illinois 13 23.6
68% 164 Southern Illinois 34 35.7, 213 Western Illinois 24 27.0
68% 156 Youngstown State 45 20.7, 195 Indiana State 0 13.8
68% 27 Louisiana State 34 29.9, 78 Vanderbilt 6 20.7
66% 135 Nevada - Reno 62 21.2, 140 Idaho 14 15.3
66% 131 East Carolina 41 34.5, 145 Rice 28 27.9
64% 88 Houston 35 24.2, 126 Tulane 14 18.9
64% 20 Louisville 69 32.0, 22 North Carolina 14 26.8
63% 21 Colorado 41 23.2, 29 Texas A&M 20 18.3
62% 173 Northwestern State 10 34.2, 201 Sam Houston State 6 30.6
62% 168 Utah State 24 28.6, 167 San Jose State 17 24.8
62% 64 Navy 27 34.4, 71 Air Force 24 29.6
62% 26 California - Los Angel 47 24.2, 25 California 40 19.9
62% 11 Texas Tech 34 26.9, 34 Nebraska 31 22.9
62% 8 North Carolina State 17 27.3, 30 Georgia Tech 14 23.3
61% 51 Colorado State 21 36.6, 46 Utah 17 33.3
60% 171 Monmouth 45 24.6, 203 Sacred Heart 14 20.1
57% 13 Penn State 17 21.7, 6 Ohio State 10 20.2
55% 202 Robert Morris 38 20.4, 191 Wagner 30 19.5
55% 35 West Virginia 27 25.2, 63 Rutgers 14 23.7
55% 10 Georgia 27 19.5, 23 Tennessee 14 18.6
54% 24 Iowa 34 26.9, 43 Purdue 17 25.9
53% 115 California Poly 37 14.0, 92 North Dakota State 6 13.6
52% 177 Georgetown 10 13.2, 162 Duquesne 7 12.8
51% 221 Tennessee - Martin 46 27.4, 212 Tennessee Tech 16 27.0
50% 75 Brigham Young 27 29.9, 96 New Mexico 24 29.9
49% 113 Central Florida 38 23.2, 85 Memphis 17 23.6
46% 121 Louisiana Tech 46 24.5, 81 Hawaii 14 25.7
40% 196 North Carolina A&T 40 17.2, 187 Morgan State 33 19.2
40% 160 Montana 32 26.8, 165 Idaho State 10 29.9
40% 138 Richmond 38 15.4, 104 Villanova 20 17.5
40% 118 Central Michigan 14 18.2, 130 Army 10 20.4
40% 89 Northern Illinois 38 29.7, 61 Miami - Ohio 27 32.1
38% 219 Morehead State 31 16.5, 217 Jacksonville 12 20.1
38% 147 Furman 34 30.5, 100 Appalachian State 31 34.5
38% 102 Western Kentucky 37 22.9, 101 Illinois State 34 27.3
37% 76 Kansas State 12 26.1, 37 Kansas 3 31.2
37% 53 Texas Christian 28 25.1, 47 Wyoming 14 30.1
36% 119 Towson 23 25.5, 106 Rhode Island 14 31.2
33% 174 Florida Atlantic 28 18.9, 158 Louisiana - Lafayette 10 26.7
32% 232 Iona 27 19.2, 229 Saint Peter's 26 28.3
31% 99 Hofstra 10 19.4, 74 Delaware 6 28.3
30% 181 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 25.6, 125 Northern Iowa 21 34.3
30% 178 Stephen F. Austin 27 29.4, 127 Nicholls State 21 37.3
30% 33 Oregon 31 27.7, 18 Arizona State 17 37.1
28% 209 Delaware State 17 24.8, 150 Bethune - Cookman 0 34.5
27% 109 William & Mary 42 27.5, 38 New Hampshire 10 38.6
27% 97 Stanford 24 25.6, 70 Washington State 21 35.6
25% 214 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 20.6, 144 Central Connecticut 28 32.7
25% 189 Ball State 60 20.2, 159 Western Michigan 57 33.4
24% 84 Holy Cross 13 29.4, 57 Lehigh 10 41.1
22% 228 Alabama A&M 20 18.5, 188 Southern 7 33.8
22% 153 Cornell 27 15.9, 62 Harvard 13 30.4
22% 83 Baylor 23 16.6, 55 Iowa State 13 29.4
22% 73 Northwestern 51 22.7, 15 Wisconsin 48 35.6
21% 186 South Dakota State 16 6.9, 103 California - Davis 14 23.3
21% 39 Minnesota 23 16.7, 7 Michigan 20 32.7
20% 108 Colgate 16 18.4, 49 Princeton 10 34.3
19% 143 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 19.4, 45 San Diego State 10 34.7
18% 225 Stony Brook 7 6.7, 192 Albany 3 21.1
17% 161 Southern Methodist 28 14.0, 82 Alabama - Birmingham 27 31.3
17% 114 Tulsa 34 11.5, 42 Southern Mississippi 17 31.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.97 28 0.89 42 0.91 16 0.82 6 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 70 77.2 0.91
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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