prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 212 Morehead State 44 33.9, 239 Austin Peay 12 2.0
92% 157 Alabama State 34 42.7, 237 Prairie View 13 4.4
92% 24 Fresno State 53 44.5, 168 Utah State 21 6.2
92% 2 Miami - Florida 34 51.1, 197 Temple 3 5.4
91% 128 California - Davis 33 27.3, 224 Southern Utah 21 3.0
91% 112 Towson 38 36.4, 234 Liberty 17 7.7
91% 50 Bowling Green 27 38.0, 202 Buffalo 7 9.1
89% 154 Duquesne 24 41.2, 231 Saint Peter's 0 13.3
88% 119 Northern Iowa 31 35.9, 219 Indiana State 10 9.1
88% 81 Colgate 23 34.0, 176 Fordham 0 9.9
87% 35 Texas Christian 38 36.7, 140 Army 17 11.5
86% 142 Youngstown State 23 30.1, 208 Western Illinois 21 10.6
86% 121 Coastal Carolina 34 38.5, 204 Gardner - Webb 31 17.9
86% 52 Boise State 38 46.2, 163 San Jose State 21 19.2
86% 12 Oregon 45 29.7, 70 Washington 21 6.9
85% 23 Boston College 35 29.9, 87 Wake Forest 30 10.6
84% 88 Western Kentucky 37 40.5, 158 Southwest Missouri Sta 28 22.2
84% 75 Northern Illinois 24 36.9, 155 Eastern Michigan 8 17.3
84% 10 Georgia 34 30.3, 100 Vanderbilt 17 10.8
83% 42 Pennsylvania 44 31.7, 160 Columbia 16 11.1
82% 147 South Carolina State 49 24.4, 199 Florida A&M 3 8.7
82% 104 Arkansas State 39 38.9, 177 Louisiana - Lafayette 36 20.4
82% 103 Cornell 57 21.1, 170 Georgetown 7 5.7
82% 47 Hofstra 44 25.8, 117 Maine 0 6.4
82% 22 Iowa 38 30.7, 61 Indiana 21 14.5
81% 187 Bethune - Cookman 56 38.4, 235 Savannah State 13 18.2
81% 77 Holy Cross 28 24.9, 148 Dartmouth 16 8.5
81% 71 Navy 34 35.6, 149 Kent State 31 17.5
80% 64 Toledo 34 38.2, 172 Ball State 14 21.8
80% 58 Air Force 42 35.5, 124 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 18.3
79% 156 Nicholls State 37 30.8, 216 Sam Houston State 17 11.5
79% 78 Miami - Ohio 51 37.9, 131 Akron 23 23.4
79% 15 Alabama 13 23.8, 67 Mississippi 10 11.1
79% 13 Texas Tech 59 45.8, 54 Kansas State 20 29.4
78% 31 Georgia Tech 35 28.2, 116 Duke 10 13.2
77% 73 Tulsa 41 34.7, 162 Rice 21 22.0
77% 39 Texas A&M 62 29.3, 91 Oklahoma State 23 14.4
77% 6 Auburn 34 31.6, 56 Arkansas 17 19.3
76% 165 Jacksonville State 37 34.4, 205 Tennessee - Martin 17 21.6
76% 3 Texas 42 26.5, 9 Colorado 17 14.8
75% 150 Hampton 55 32.7, 213 Norfolk State 14 21.6
75% 137 McNeese State 33 41.8, 167 Stephen F. Austin 23 32.7
75% 45 William & Mary 44 39.2, 151 Northeastern 41 23.7
75% 8 Ohio State 35 29.4, 26 Michigan State 24 19.2
74% 7 Louisiana State 21 24.4, 21 Florida 17 14.8
73% 76 Marshall 20 31.3, 110 Alabama - Birmingham 19 19.9
73% 53 Missouri 27 35.9, 69 Iowa State 24 26.3
72% 99 New Hampshire 53 31.0, 134 Rhode Island 9 20.2
71% 161 Northwestern State 31 29.9, 189 Southeast Louisiana 10 19.2
71% 108 Central Michigan 37 20.5, 130 Ohio 10 12.8
70% 27 California - Los Angel 44 38.7, 84 Washington State 41 30.4
68% 193 Morgan State 7 37.3, 209 Howard 0 29.9
67% 120 Portland State 44 24.8, 145 Montana State 41 17.6
66% 215 Samford 27 30.1, 221 Murray State 23 23.9
65% 141 Hawaii 49 22.4, 146 New Mexico State 28 16.0
64% 226 Jacksonville 21 25.8, 233 Davidson 13 19.7
64% 132 Villanova 38 29.6, 174 Bucknell 10 23.8
63% 178 Central Connecticut 21 32.1, 184 Robert Morris 14 26.8
63% 173 Wofford 38 19.8, 180 Virginia Military 23 15.9
63% 123 Furman 39 32.2, 169 The Citadel 31 27.3
62% 195 Stony Brook 47 19.6, 191 Saint Francis - Pennsy 29 15.6
62% 90 Brown 31 24.7, 96 Princeton 28 20.1
62% 83 Texas - El Paso 45 22.5, 126 Tulane 21 18.8
61% 93 Southern Mississippi 52 21.5, 80 Central Florida 31 18.2
61% 79 Nevada - Reno 37 34.5, 68 Louisiana Tech 27 30.6
61% 5 Southern California 34 28.9, 17 Notre Dame 31 25.9
60% 218 Albany 21 16.4, 211 Sacred Heart 7 14.2
60% 18 Michigan 27 18.6, 11 Penn State 25 15.9
59% 94 Lehigh 28 16.5, 72 Yale 21 14.1
59% 34 Nebraska 23 15.0, 62 Baylor 14 13.2
58% 190 Weber State 26 26.5, 185 Sacramento State 14 24.8
55% 200 Grambling 26 17.5, 217 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 16.5
53% 122 Illinois State 61 24.2, 153 Southern Illinois 35 23.5
52% 65 Brigham Young 24 27.4, 51 Colorado State 14 26.8
51% 182 Delaware State 23 10.9, 196 North Carolina A&T 13 10.7
50% 46 Oklahoma 19 16.0, 43 Kansas 3 16.1
47% 223 Tennessee State 31 20.5, 229 Tennessee Tech 20 21.1
46% 40 Pittsburgh 31 21.0, 25 South Florida 17 21.8
45% 63 Stanford 20 20.7, 85 Arizona 16 21.8
44% 220 Southern 20 23.4, 207 Jackson State 14 24.8
42% 101 Harvard 24 17.5, 109 Lafayette 17 19.1
41% 107 Appalachian State 24 23.3, 89 Georgia Southern 7 25.6
40% 166 North Texas 13 17.0, 171 Florida International 10 19.6
40% 133 San Diego 48 16.4, 138 Dayton 24 18.8
39% 74 Rutgers 31 17.9, 92 Syracuse 9 22.1
38% 125 East Carolina 24 20.7, 127 Southern Methodist 17 24.9
38% 115 Richmond 20 17.5, 113 Delaware 10 21.7
38% 41 Massachusetts 10 9.3, 20 James Madison 7 13.3
37% 143 Middle Tennessee State 35 7.6, 139 Florida Atlantic 14 11.6
37% 136 Eastern Washington 34 16.1, 118 Montana 20 21.3
33% 57 Northwestern 34 35.7, 49 Purdue 29 41.5
33% 55 Virginia 26 27.6, 16 Florida State 21 35.2
30% 186 Eastern Illinois 53 17.0, 129 Eastern Kentucky 22 24.5
30% 86 New Mexico 27 16.6, 59 Wyoming 24 24.9
30% 30 Wisconsin 38 27.8, 19 Minnesota 34 36.6
29% 48 Oregon State 23 23.2, 29 California 20 32.9
28% 179 Northeast Louisiana 27 17.3, 111 Troy State 3 25.6
28% 66 San Diego State 28 12.6, 44 Utah 19 22.1
27% 114 Memphis 35 24.8, 97 Houston 20 34.3
25% 238 Valparaiso 34 22.6, 236 Butler 21 32.7
25% 33 West Virginia 46 24.7, 1 Louisville 44 37.3
24% 201 Wagner 26 15.9, 159 Monmouth 20 27.9
24% 38 Clemson 31 16.5, 14 North Carolina State 10 28.4
23% 232 Alcorn State 29 12.4, 210 Texas Southern 22 27.0
22% 214 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 13.2, 188 Elon 7 25.2
21% 135 Cincinnati 28 18.9, 37 Connecticut 17 33.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.90 28 0.95 33 0.84 22 1.19 7 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 75 76.6 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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