prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 144 Dayton 52 45.3, 237 Valparaiso 7 6.5
92% 21 Clemson 37 46.5, 197 Temple 7 2.4
91% 79 Toledo 38 26.6, 205 Buffalo 15 1.2
87% 33 Fresno State 40 47.7, 193 Idaho 10 17.6
86% 116 Furman 45 35.5, 209 Elon 6 11.0
86% 30 Pittsburgh 34 30.7, 108 Syracuse 17 10.4
86% 10 Penn State 63 34.2, 100 Illinois 10 14.9
85% 120 San Diego 31 39.7, 192 Drake 26 19.8
85% 65 William & Mary 44 40.6, 166 Towson 13 18.5
85% 2 Southern California 51 36.9, 86 Washington 24 12.8
84% 125 Portland State 45 35.6, 199 Northern Arizona 0 16.4
84% 17 Florida State 55 31.9, 118 Duke 24 12.4
84% 13 Wisconsin 31 39.2, 69 Purdue 20 20.4
83% 87 Tulsa 20 27.6, 133 Southern Methodist 13 12.0
83% 40 New Hampshire 52 49.2, 139 Northeastern 21 26.6
83% 37 Massachusetts 35 23.9, 156 Maine 14 6.8
83% 12 Oklahoma 37 28.1, 75 Baylor 30 5.5
82% 229 Jacksonville 33 36.5, 239 Austin Peay 26 19.0
82% 109 Georgia Southern 49 31.2, 177 The Citadel 14 12.9
82% 31 Colorado 44 21.9, 78 Kansas 13 7.3
82% 9 Georgia 23 33.9, 54 Arkansas 20 16.0
82% 5 Ohio State 41 34.2, 81 Indiana 10 16.9
81% 80 Lehigh 42 34.0, 178 Bucknell 10 17.1
81% 47 Miami - Ohio 24 35.3, 155 Eastern Michigan 23 19.0
81% 3 Virginia Tech 28 27.5, 49 Maryland 9 11.2
80% 132 Coastal Carolina 27 31.9, 230 Liberty 21 12.2
80% 105 Louisiana Tech 40 26.5, 160 North Texas 14 12.7
80% 103 Western Kentucky 42 45.7, 202 Western Illinois 7 29.3
80% 14 Notre Dame 49 32.7, 59 Brigham Young 23 16.1
79% 213 Morehead State 31 17.3, 233 Davidson 13 5.1
79% 174 Eastern Kentucky 33 34.7, 219 Southeast Missouri Sta 32 18.6
79% 24 Oregon 28 33.1, 107 Arizona 21 18.5
78% 135 Eastern Illinois 35 33.6, 218 Murray State 28 19.5
78% 97 Texas State - San Marc 31 24.2, 151 Northwestern State 16 11.2
78% 68 Iowa State 37 25.2, 119 Oklahoma State 10 11.1
78% 55 Utah 42 30.8, 138 Nevada - Las Vegas 32 18.1
78% 8 Louisville 46 48.4, 88 Cincinnati 22 31.2
77% 123 Arkansas State 3 31.4, 167 Florida Atlantic 0 18.6
77% 58 Boise State 45 34.0, 159 Utah State 21 19.5
76% 168 Jacksonville State 33 26.3, 220 Tennessee State 3 15.7
76% 158 Troy State 18 24.0, 187 Florida International 13 13.9
76% 73 Mississippi 13 27.3, 114 Kentucky 7 16.6
75% 18 California - Los Angel 51 40.8, 34 Oregon State 28 31.6
75% 1 Texas 52 43.2, 4 Texas Tech 17 33.6
73% 126 Dartmouth 17 20.9, 164 Columbia 6 11.9
73% 90 Memphis 27 30.4, 124 East Carolina 24 20.6
73% 77 Navy 41 40.5, 154 Rice 9 30.7
72% 44 California 42 30.1, 63 Washington State 38 21.6
72% 16 Alabama 6 20.3, 29 Tennessee 3 13.4
70% 57 Pennsylvania 38 22.6, 89 Yale 21 14.5
69% 143 Ohio 38 27.2, 171 Ball State 21 18.5
69% 140 Southern Illinois 42 24.2, 201 Indiana State 20 17.3
68% 82 Northern Illinois 34 30.7, 131 Kent State 3 23.9
68% 53 Colorado State 39 26.5, 67 Wyoming 31 19.9
68% 46 South Carolina 35 26.7, 61 Vanderbilt 28 19.6
68% 43 Southern Mississippi 37 33.7, 106 Alabama - Birmingham 28 25.3
67% 204 Howard 16 15.6, 211 North Carolina A&T 0 9.5
67% 112 Central Florida 34 27.8, 127 Tulane 24 20.1
67% 104 Illinois State 38 33.5, 113 Northern Iowa 3 27.4
67% 98 Appalachian State 49 25.2, 147 Wofford 17 18.8
67% 20 Texas A&M 30 43.4, 76 Kansas State 28 35.6
65% 225 Charleston Southern 48 24.2, 232 Savannah State 28 17.0
65% 215 Alabama A&M 28 13.6, 212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 9.2
65% 172 Idaho State 27 27.3, 208 Sacramento State 17 21.6
64% 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 35 26.4, 228 Texas Southern 28 21.4
63% 84 Texas - El Paso 31 25.3, 83 Marshall 3 21.1
62% 196 Delaware State 41 22.2, 194 Morgan State 14 18.0
62% 182 Monmouth 14 21.4, 185 Robert Morris 0 17.8
61% 200 Grambling 52 23.7, 221 Jackson State 21 21.0
61% 198 Albany 25 23.5, 223 Saint Francis - Pennsy 16 20.2
61% 163 Youngstown State 31 18.1, 153 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 15.2
60% 102 Hawaii 45 34.0, 136 San Jose State 38 30.9
58% 42 Missouri 41 24.8, 32 Nebraska 24 23.0
55% 162 Duquesne 22 15.0, 176 Marist 14 14.0
50% 180 Western Carolina 38 17.2, 190 Tennessee - Chattanoog 20 17.1
48% 173 Central Connecticut 38 20.8, 184 Wagner 34 21.2
45% 130 Army 20 24.9, 141 Akron 0 26.3
45% 50 Rutgers 26 19.5, 70 Connecticut 24 20.6
42% 224 Florida A&M 31 24.9, 206 Norfolk State 17 26.6
41% 22 Louisiana State 20 15.9, 7 Auburn 17 17.7
40% 214 Sacred Heart 21 19.6, 189 Stony Brook 14 22.2
40% 11 Michigan 23 18.5, 19 Iowa 20 21.0
39% 51 Texas Christian 48 29.8, 60 Air Force 10 33.0
38% 210 Southern Utah 20 19.6, 179 Northern Colorado 17 23.5
38% 207 Georgetown 24 12.0, 175 Fordham 21 15.4
38% 149 Hampton 14 15.3, 111 South Carolina State 10 19.0
38% 91 Colgate 27 18.6, 92 Holy Cross 14 22.5
38% 74 Wake Forest 27 23.8, 38 North Carolina State 19 27.8
37% 217 Samford 30 25.0, 216 Tennessee - Martin 22 29.9
37% 188 Gardner - Webb 55 27.1, 186 Virginia Military 52 32.3
37% 85 North Carolina 7 21.7, 35 Virginia 5 27.8
37% 71 Brown 38 32.2, 66 Cornell 24 36.9
35% 134 Montana 36 14.4, 95 California Poly 27 19.1
33% 203 Sam Houston State 52 21.4, 165 Stephen F. Austin 24 27.2
33% 195 Southeast Louisiana 37 26.0, 142 McNeese State 13 33.2
33% 148 California - Davis 20 12.6, 129 North Dakota State 14 18.7
33% 64 New Mexico 47 18.2, 52 San Diego State 24 24.2
30% 157 Louisiana - Lafayette 13 17.6, 128 Middle Tennessee State 10 26.6
30% 117 Houston 28 15.3, 99 Mississippi State 16 22.2
29% 93 Princeton 27 17.3, 62 Harvard 24 25.9
28% 72 Stanford 45 21.4, 23 Arizona State 35 30.6
25% 101 Richmond 43 10.8, 39 Hofstra 37 19.8
24% 222 Alcorn State 38 18.3, 191 Southern 16 29.7
24% 146 Rhode Island 48 17.9, 110 Villanova 30 30.3
24% 115 Delaware 34 16.3, 41 James Madison 28 27.4
24% 45 Northwestern 49 33.7, 27 Michigan State 14 43.3
16% 183 Weber State 28 18.9, 122 Eastern Washington 23 36.6
14% 152 Western Michigan 45 28.5, 56 Bowling Green 14 50.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.60 40 0.85 31 1.02 25 1.10 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 75 78.1 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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