prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 155 Dayton 41 46.7, 239 Butler 7 7.5
91% 36 Virginia 51 36.7, 175 Temple 3 4.9
90% 76 Miami - Ohio 54 34.6, 183 Buffalo 13 9.4
90% 64 Lehigh 46 38.9, 193 Georgetown 14 8.2
90% 1 Southern California 51 42.0, 59 Stanford 21 11.0
89% 69 Richmond 38 39.6, 200 Virginia Military 3 8.5
89% 38 Fresno State 45 40.9, 158 San Jose State 7 13.1
89% 8 Louisiana State 24 42.2, 122 Appalachian State 0 11.0
88% 128 Coastal Carolina 42 48.0, 237 Savannah State 16 16.6
88% 34 Boise State 56 46.5, 162 New Mexico State 6 16.7
88% 5 Ohio State 40 35.6, 88 Illinois 2 8.7
87% 2 Texas 62 35.9, 96 Baylor 0 11.6
86% 168 Duquesne 56 36.5, 227 La Salle 14 15.5
86% 51 Harvard 55 31.6, 179 Columbia 7 10.6
86% 7 Auburn 49 31.4, 95 Kentucky 27 12.2
83% 101 Montana 23 32.7, 206 Northern Arizona 0 15.7
83% 33 Clemson 49 30.8, 131 Duke 20 5.7
82% 188 Drake 49 38.0, 235 Valparaiso 24 21.6
81% 12 Florida 49 30.3, 63 Vanderbilt 42 14.0
80% 165 Eastern Illinois 27 25.1, 226 Tennessee State 3 11.4
80% 156 Montana State 37 28.8, 207 Sacramento State 16 15.2
80% 133 South Carolina State 23 21.3, 218 Howard 9 8.1
80% 27 Iowa State 45 31.4, 80 Kansas State 17 15.4
80% 21 Alabama 17 20.3, 111 Mississippi State 0 7.0
79% 202 Florida A&M 24 20.7, 217 North Carolina A&T 14 10.2
79% 124 Texas State - San Marc 49 34.6, 184 McNeese State 7 19.4
79% 9 Notre Dame 41 27.2, 37 Tennessee 21 13.4
78% 177 Eastern Kentucky 43 35.3, 228 Murray State 7 22.6
78% 3 Texas Tech 56 41.8, 41 Texas A&M 17 21.5
77% 190 Alabama A&M 52 30.6, 222 Jackson State 6 16.7
77% 173 South Dakota State 55 33.6, 212 Southern Utah 7 19.2
77% 146 North Dakota State 44 27.6, 189 Northern Colorado 0 15.3
77% 98 Southern Illinois 31 21.2, 144 Youngstown State 17 8.9
77% 68 Navy 49 32.8, 115 Tulane 21 20.1
77% 47 Brigham Young 55 36.5, 130 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 24.3
76% 28 West Virginia 45 29.4, 57 Connecticut 13 17.8
75% 182 Albany 20 22.3, 205 Robert Morris 17 12.1
75% 11 Louisville 42 40.2, 29 Pittsburgh 20 29.3
74% 66 Texas - El Paso 41 25.9, 89 Tulsa 38 16.9
73% 192 Marist 28 27.5, 230 Iona 27 17.7
72% 86 Georgia Southern 27 43.7, 109 Furman 24 35.6
72% 26 Minnesota 42 38.0, 91 Indiana 21 29.2
72% 23 Oregon 27 30.2, 31 California 20 21.6
71% 22 Colorado 41 28.1, 44 Missouri 12 18.1
71% 17 Arizona State 27 41.5, 75 Washington State 24 32.4
71% 13 Penn State 35 27.5, 25 Wisconsin 14 19.8
69% 194 Stony Brook 28 28.2, 208 Wagner 10 20.5
68% 87 Toledo 30 31.2, 143 Ohio 21 24.1
67% 159 Western Illinois 63 27.5, 209 Indiana State 35 20.6
67% 125 California Poly 40 28.9, 132 Eastern Washington 35 22.4
67% 30 Texas Christian 33 31.8, 40 Colorado State 6 25.3
66% 84 Central Florida 31 27.0, 97 Houston 29 20.9
66% 52 Utah 43 30.6, 65 Wyoming 13 24.8
65% 50 Kansas 40 19.0, 54 Nebraska 15 13.5
64% 135 Southern Methodist 27 28.0, 137 Rice 7 23.0
63% 215 Southern 44 26.5, 234 Texas Southern 20 21.7
63% 136 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 28.2, 186 North Texas 28 22.8
63% 105 Cornell 21 23.9, 150 Dartmouth 10 19.5
63% 58 Massachusetts 35 21.0, 104 Delaware 7 16.2
63% 45 Georgia Tech 30 20.8, 46 Wake Forest 17 16.1
62% 170 Central Connecticut 24 30.1, 204 Sacred Heart 17 26.0
62% 152 Fordham 28 23.6, 151 Bucknell 21 19.5
61% 201 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 26.6, 199 The Citadel 21 23.1
61% 119 Nevada - Reno 38 29.9, 113 Hawaii 28 26.5
61% 106 Louisiana Tech 27 24.3, 147 Utah State 17 20.8
60% 221 Alcorn State 38 23.3, 216 Mississippi Valley Sta 36 20.6
60% 134 Illinois State 48 29.8, 176 Southwest Missouri Sta 23 27.2
60% 121 Bowling Green 24 23.1, 167 Kent State 14 20.4
60% 112 Western Michigan 44 28.7, 139 Eastern Michigan 36 26.2
57% 171 Grambling 32 32.6, 191 Alabama State 27 30.9
57% 160 Troy State 28 14.5, 148 Florida Atlantic 14 13.3
57% 110 Maine 14 26.4, 142 Northeastern 10 24.8
54% 180 Sam Houston State 35 28.9, 161 Southeast Louisiana 18 27.9
53% 67 James Madison 30 26.0, 93 William & Mary 29 25.4
52% 213 Norfolk State 24 32.9, 220 Morgan State 21 32.5
50% 39 New Hampshire 29 33.4, 61 Hofstra 26 33.4
49% 169 Western Carolina 24 18.2, 145 Wofford 0 18.5
49% 153 Hampton 24 20.5, 174 Bethune - Cookman 10 20.7
49% 60 Brown 38 19.1, 81 Yale 21 19.4
48% 117 Northern Iowa 23 21.0, 138 Western Kentucky 20 21.5
47% 154 Middle Tennessee State 45 16.3, 127 Arkansas State 7 16.9
46% 100 Colgate 18 20.9, 116 Lafayette 15 21.9
45% 35 Purdue 28 27.7, 18 Michigan State 21 28.9
45% 32 South Carolina 14 28.6, 49 Arkansas 10 29.7
40% 140 Ball State 23 21.4, 103 Akron 17 24.4
40% 129 Nicholls State 31 17.6, 149 Northwestern State 24 20.1
40% 43 South Florida 45 19.7, 56 Rutgers 31 22.3
39% 74 Oregon State 18 22.9, 77 Washington 10 25.7
38% 219 Tennessee - Martin 24 25.3, 196 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 28.8
36% 185 Idaho State 36 26.8, 141 Portland State 34 31.9
36% 71 Princeton 30 20.1, 62 Pennsylvania 13 25.2
35% 55 Northwestern 28 23.1, 15 Iowa 27 28.8
32% 70 North Carolina 16 15.5, 24 Boston College 14 22.6
31% 107 Alabama - Birmingham 37 26.3, 92 Memphis 20 33.3
31% 102 Army 27 19.5, 82 Air Force 24 28.5
29% 223 Saint Francis - Pennsy 19 21.0, 181 Monmouth 15 29.8
27% 10 Miami - Florida 27 13.5, 4 Virginia Tech 7 21.8
26% 233 Tennessee Tech 42 22.6, 203 Samford 21 31.6
25% 123 Northern Illinois 31 15.3, 83 Central Michigan 28 26.4
25% 73 Arizona 52 24.7, 19 California - Los Angel 14 34.1
24% 225 Charleston Southern 38 24.1, 195 Gardner - Webb 7 37.9
24% 166 Towson 40 20.7, 94 Villanova 19 30.9
24% 42 North Carolina State 20 16.5, 20 Florida State 15 27.6
23% 187 Florida International 31 17.5, 157 Northeast Louisiana 29 29.0
21% 197 Stephen F. Austin 27 17.4, 108 California - Davis 17 31.0
15% 236 Prairie View 34 9.0, 210 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 7 29.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.86 30 1.04 35 0.95 18 1.10 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 75 75.1 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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