prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 62 Texas - El Paso 45 57.9, 234 Texas Southern 0 8.4
92% 42 New Hampshire 56 60.4, 229 Iona 0 8.4
91% 111 California Poly 20 43.4, 222 Southern Utah 10 11.1
90% 1 Texas 66 35.5, 40 Kansas 14 6.0
89% 130 South Carolina State 65 38.5, 219 Morgan State 15 12.5
89% 87 Georgia Southern 63 37.9, 206 Morehead State 17 6.9
89% 25 Texas Christian 51 37.5, 131 Nevada - Las Vegas 3 10.9
89% 11 Michigan 41 34.5, 75 Indiana 14 11.0
88% 109 Illinois State 70 40.2, 210 Indiana State 28 12.9
88% 79 Montana 31 31.6, 207 Sacramento State 14 7.2
88% 52 Brown 24 34.0, 147 Dartmouth 14 11.9
87% 137 Eastern Illinois 31 35.6, 213 Tennessee Tech 20 13.4
86% 83 Cornell 45 27.4, 172 Columbia 7 7.0
86% 81 Colgate 16 32.9, 174 Bucknell 10 11.7
86% 46 James Madison 28 36.9, 133 Villanova 13 15.1
85% 157 Eastern Kentucky 31 34.6, 221 Tennessee - Martin 17 12.8
85% 39 Purdue 37 33.9, 110 Illinois 3 14.8
85% 8 Louisville 56 48.7, 69 Rutgers 5 26.9
85% 5 Ohio State 48 35.4, 50 Northwestern 7 15.8
84% 141 Hampton 34 25.6, 197 Florida A&M 14 8.3
84% 4 Miami - Florida 47 31.9, 76 Wake Forest 17 10.6
82% 224 Murray State 42 35.5, 239 Austin Peay 6 11.8
82% 43 Tennessee 20 31.4, 119 Memphis 16 13.3
82% 9 Notre Dame 42 41.5, 58 Navy 21 22.3
82% 2 Southern California 35 35.7, 37 California 10 20.7
80% 205 Southeast Missouri Sta 32 24.2, 233 Tennessee State 24 9.9
79% 66 Hofstra 20 34.9, 166 Northeastern 17 21.2
79% 36 Pittsburgh 24 32.2, 84 Connecticut 0 17.4
78% 199 Charleston Southern 31 19.8, 227 Liberty 30 5.6
78% 112 Hawaii 50 30.5, 149 Utah State 23 17.1
77% 163 Jacksonville State 26 32.5, 223 Samford 20 18.6
77% 123 Furman 34 33.8, 178 Wofford 21 20.6
77% 64 Lehigh 40 37.3, 155 Fordham 3 25.0
77% 59 Missouri 31 23.8, 103 Baylor 16 12.0
77% 18 West Virginia 38 30.8, 91 Cincinnati 0 17.6
76% 156 San Diego 42 32.6, 189 Marist 35 20.9
76% 32 Oklahoma 36 32.3, 53 Texas A&M 30 21.1
76% 20 Oregon 34 34.1, 77 Washington State 31 23.4
75% 96 Louisiana Tech 41 31.9, 170 Idaho 38 21.5
75% 26 South Florida 27 28.2, 116 Syracuse 0 17.4
73% 114 Nevada - Reno 48 32.2, 181 New Mexico State 24 22.0
73% 98 Tulsa 45 31.5, 125 East Carolina 13 21.0
72% 171 Alabama A&M 28 27.3, 216 Alcorn State 21 18.3
72% 93 Texas State - San Marc 38 32.2, 165 Stephen F. Austin 21 22.2
72% 74 Nebraska 27 33.3, 99 Kansas State 25 24.6
71% 19 Minnesota 41 35.5, 29 Michigan State 18 27.1
70% 153 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 34.4, 177 Florida International 7 26.1
70% 152 Portland State 39 32.4, 179 Weber State 14 24.3
70% 129 Nicholls State 38 32.7, 190 Southeast Louisiana 28 23.0
69% 198 The Citadel 21 18.2, 209 Elon 0 11.5
69% 48 Harvard 29 26.6, 70 Pennsylvania 3 18.4
68% 194 Delaware State 38 24.3, 204 Norfolk State 17 17.6
68% 105 Maine 27 23.9, 122 Rhode Island 24 16.5
67% 124 Appalachian State 35 18.4, 143 Western Carolina 7 10.8
67% 104 North Dakota State 41 24.0, 126 South Dakota State 17 16.4
67% 72 Richmond 48 24.5, 134 Towson 21 17.6
67% 33 Virginia 27 22.0, 44 Georgia Tech 17 16.1
66% 231 Prairie View 27 22.4, 236 Jackson State 9 15.9
64% 202 Southern 27 22.8, 225 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 21 18.0
64% 169 Florida Atlantic 26 17.3, 176 North Texas 23 12.4
63% 208 Wagner 23 29.6, 214 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 24.5
63% 107 Northern Iowa 25 27.8, 115 Southern Illinois 24 23.5
62% 186 Monmouth 16 14.0, 185 Albany 13 10.9
62% 138 Eastern Washington 35 32.9, 146 Montana State 14 28.9
62% 55 Southern Mississippi 27 26.3, 101 Marshall 24 22.3
62% 31 Clemson 35 27.2, 30 Florida State 14 22.9
61% 118 Western Michigan 31 34.2, 117 Central Michigan 24 30.6
61% 41 Boston College 30 17.0, 28 North Carolina State 10 14.4
60% 180 Western Illinois 34 37.2, 173 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 34.1
60% 154 Youngstown State 42 17.0, 139 Western Kentucky 10 14.7
59% 188 Bethune - Cookman 45 19.5, 212 Howard 16 17.7
59% 35 Fresno State 27 28.3, 23 Boise State 7 26.1
58% 217 Gardner - Webb 31 30.3, 232 Savannah State 21 27.9
57% 57 Brigham Young 35 25.4, 89 Wyoming 21 23.5
55% 235 La Salle 30 35.6, 230 Saint Peter's 14 34.3
54% 161 Rice 42 26.5, 145 Tulane 34 25.6
52% 27 Iowa State 30 20.1, 13 Colorado 16 19.7
49% 187 Stony Brook 23 21.1, 162 Central Connecticut 21 21.3
46% 65 Arkansas 28 16.4, 82 Mississippi 17 17.1
44% 6 Louisiana State 16 10.6, 12 Alabama 13 11.6
41% 113 Lafayette 41 19.7, 120 Holy Cross 21 21.6
41% 88 Houston 27 26.7, 55 Southern Mississippi 24 28.6
40% 38 South Carolina 30 22.3, 14 Florida 22 25.3
39% 203 Sacred Heart 27 26.4, 201 Robert Morris 20 30.0
39% 175 Arkansas State 9 24.1, 135 Troy State 3 27.5
39% 15 Auburn 31 17.6, 16 Georgia 30 20.6
38% 148 Ball State 26 25.6, 150 Eastern Michigan 25 29.3
37% 193 McNeese State 22 19.6, 158 Northwestern State 17 24.3
36% 22 Iowa 20 22.8, 21 Wisconsin 10 27.6
35% 73 San Diego State 30 18.9, 68 Colorado State 10 24.4
34% 47 Maryland 33 18.5, 45 North Carolina 30 23.9
32% 220 Mississippi Valley Sta 38 27.3, 184 Alabama State 33 34.6
32% 106 Army 34 9.7, 49 Massachusetts 27 16.6
31% 100 Delaware 22 23.4, 80 William & Mary 21 30.9
31% 90 Kentucky 48 27.5, 63 Vanderbilt 43 36.4
31% 61 Stanford 20 20.0, 51 Oregon State 17 27.9
31% 60 California - Los Angel 45 35.5, 17 Arizona State 35 43.2
29% 102 Central Florida 27 22.6, 78 Alabama - Birmingham 21 30.7
25% 211 Northern Arizona 42 19.5, 151 Idaho State 28 30.5
23% 218 Northern Colorado 24 18.5, 167 Sam Houston State 3 31.2
21% 108 Yale 21 10.2, 56 Princeton 14 23.2
21% 67 New Mexico 31 20.7, 24 Utah 27 35.2
20% 182 Northeast Louisiana 34 12.1, 95 Middle Tennessee State 31 31.9
20% 86 Washington 38 9.2, 34 Arizona 14 25.5
18% 228 Davidson 10 6.6, 192 Georgetown 3 22.6
17% 200 Buffalo 10 7.1, 144 Kent State 6 23.8
11% 97 Oklahoma State 24 15.2, 3 Texas Tech 17 39.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 1.04 37 0.92 28 1.09 27 0.95 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 77 77.7 0.99
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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