prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 13 Notre Dame 34 39.8, 130 Syracuse 10 6.1
90% 144 Hampton 44 40.3, 236 Savannah State 6 6.2
90% 61 Navy 38 37.5, 184 Temple 17 9.0
88% 117 South Carolina State 43 33.8, 223 North Carolina A&T 27 8.4
87% 106 Texas State - San Marc 26 33.9, 196 Sam Houston State 23 11.5
87% 51 James Madison 55 37.5, 141 Towson 14 15.1
87% 48 Boise State 70 42.6, 149 Idaho 35 17.2
87% 21 South Florida 31 30.9, 128 Cincinnati 16 4.3
86% 33 New Hampshire 59 34.7, 115 Maine 47 14.3
85% 102 Colgate 34 24.4, 215 Georgetown 7 6.6
85% 5 Louisiana State 40 25.0, 93 Mississippi 7 5.8
84% 42 North Carolina State 24 30.8, 138 Middle Tennessee State 3 8.8
83% 69 Brown 52 29.9, 173 Columbia 21 13.6
82% 187 Delaware State 23 21.0, 217 Howard 7 7.6
82% 129 California Poly 35 36.7, 193 Idaho State 10 19.4
82% 2 Southern California 50 31.2, 28 Fresno State 42 11.4
81% 145 San Diego 47 36.3, 222 Morehead State 40 15.6
81% 127 Nicholls State 39 38.1, 182 McNeese State 26 22.2
81% 19 Oregon 56 34.8, 58 Oregon State 14 18.2
80% 112 Appalachian State 52 23.4, 214 Elon 14 7.2
80% 16 Georgia 45 35.7, 74 Kentucky 13 18.3
79% 81 Army 38 32.4, 146 Arkansas State 10 15.5
79% 63 North Carolina 24 29.5, 122 Duke 21 15.3
79% 8 Auburn 28 23.9, 37 Alabama 18 9.6
78% 123 Northern Iowa 41 30.5, 180 Northern Arizona 17 15.6
78% 114 Furman 56 41.8, 200 Tennessee - Chattanoog 35 28.9
77% 142 Duquesne 44 31.0, 213 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 19.8
77% 56 Arkansas 44 22.4, 118 Mississippi State 10 11.2
77% 45 San Diego State 34 24.5, 97 Wyoming 21 13.4
75% 190 Alabama A&M 31 19.3, 230 Prairie View 16 10.2
75% 84 Colorado State 31 28.8, 160 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 18.0
74% 171 Eastern Kentucky 49 24.1, 226 Tennessee State 0 14.6
74% 64 Tulsa 38 33.0, 148 Tulane 14 22.3
73% 25 Purdue 41 31.3, 83 Indiana 14 22.4
71% 109 Nevada - Reno 30 32.1, 170 Utah State 24 23.2
68% 155 Northwestern State 41 26.2, 168 Stephen F. Austin 21 19.2
68% 119 Eastern Washington 24 24.6, 132 California - Davis 7 17.8
67% 221 Norfolk State 34 30.1, 229 Liberty 17 22.7
67% 154 San Jose State 27 30.7, 164 New Mexico State 10 24.7
66% 73 Northwestern 38 28.5, 124 Illinois 21 22.8
65% 60 Hofstra 21 23.5, 77 Massachusetts 10 16.9
65% 9 Penn State 31 26.9, 39 Michigan State 22 21.6
65% 6 Virginia Tech 52 24.2, 30 Virginia 14 18.9
64% 95 Princeton 30 18.4, 133 Dartmouth 0 14.0
64% 12 Iowa 52 25.3, 14 Minnesota 28 20.3
63% 162 South Dakota State 30 25.3, 179 Northern Colorado 14 18.8
63% 158 Wofford 56 24.7, 202 Gardner - Webb 42 19.5
63% 87 Richmond 41 23.6, 98 William & Mary 7 19.1
63% 72 Baylor 44 15.2, 67 Oklahoma State 34 11.5
63% 40 Harvard 30 19.0, 79 Yale 24 15.3
63% 18 Boston College 31 22.4, 50 Maryland 16 18.1
62% 136 Akron 27 23.8, 137 Ohio 3 20.0
62% 111 Southern Illinois 9 22.9, 104 North Dakota State 0 19.2
62% 100 Central Florida 31 30.5, 135 Rice 28 26.8
62% 24 Texas Tech 23 31.3, 20 Oklahoma 21 26.9
61% 220 Alcorn State 31 27.0, 233 Jackson State 14 23.4
60% 219 Tennessee - Martin 49 23.1, 210 Murray State 20 20.3
60% 3 Ohio State 25 19.5, 11 Michigan 21 17.1
59% 225 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 40 18.3, 234 Texas Southern 23 16.6
59% 80 Delaware 38 22.6, 116 Villanova 13 20.9
58% 198 Marist 30 25.3, 188 Stony Brook 28 23.6
57% 126 Holy Cross 51 23.6, 151 Bucknell 33 22.0
56% 120 Central Michigan 31 26.3, 143 Ball State 24 25.0
53% 218 Tennessee Tech 31 31.4, 205 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 30.9
51% 192 Southeast Louisiana 38 30.5, 207 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 30.3
51% 23 Clemson 13 22.8, 38 South Carolina 9 22.6
50% 195 Weber State 27 20.8, 209 Southern Utah 10 20.8
48% 157 Eastern Michigan 38 16.2, 178 Buffalo 14 16.6
46% 76 Kansas State 36 29.3, 43 Missouri 28 30.1
46% 31 California 27 19.0, 44 Stanford 3 19.9
45% 70 Cornell 16 21.7, 90 Pennsylvania 7 22.8
44% 191 Florida International 38 21.5, 163 Western Kentucky 35 22.7
44% 153 Northeast Louisiana 24 27.5, 167 North Texas 19 28.9
41% 181 The Citadel 22 18.8, 197 Virginia Military 14 20.8
37% 57 Washington State 26 20.9, 53 Washington 22 25.7
35% 49 Utah 41 24.3, 41 Brigham Young 34 30.2
33% 189 Albany 41 9.4, 177 Fordham 0 15.7
33% 165 Montana State 16 17.6, 113 Montana 6 23.6
30% 204 Florida A&M 26 22.6, 174 Bethune - Cookman 23 31.1
30% 176 Eastern Illinois 10 15.3, 152 Jacksonville State 6 23.9
29% 94 Northern Illinois 35 22.5, 71 Toledo 17 30.9
28% 212 Charleston Southern 34 20.9, 150 Coastal Carolina 27 32.4
28% 139 Northeastern 17 25.1, 121 Rhode Island 14 33.6
27% 96 Lafayette 23 14.9, 52 Lehigh 19 25.5
26% 92 Bowling Green 42 26.6, 59 Miami - Ohio 14 36.0
26% 88 Air Force 42 25.3, 55 New Mexico 24 35.4
25% 101 Alabama - Birmingham 35 17.5, 54 Texas - El Paso 23 29.7
22% 147 East Carolina 34 18.2, 103 Marshall 29 32.3
22% 107 Memphis 24 20.7, 65 Southern Mississippi 22 33.6
21% 134 Southern Methodist 29 14.2, 85 Houston 24 27.3
21% 89 Vanderbilt 28 19.0, 34 Tennessee 24 34.3
14% 46 Georgia Tech 14 6.8, 7 Miami - Florida 10 25.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.91 28 1.28 27 0.73 18 1.12 3 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 92 66 65.0 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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