prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 5 Virginia Tech 30 35.8, 84 North Carolina 3 7.9
88% 4 Louisville 41 44.1, 98 Syracuse 17 12.7
82% 83 Southern Mississippi 26 34.4, 139 Tulane 7 16.7
82% 20 Oklahoma 42 33.3, 73 Oklahoma State 14 14.1
82% 1 Texas 40 41.4, 40 Texas A&M 29 24.7
81% 22 Arizona State 23 36.4, 67 Arizona 20 19.3
79% 61 Northern Illinois 42 38.3, 110 Western Michigan 7 24.2
79% 53 Richmond 38 24.4, 147 Hampton 10 10.7
78% 115 Houston 35 36.1, 149 Rice 18 23.9
78% 109 Akron 35 25.9, 163 Kent State 3 12.6
77% 154 California - Davis 24 20.6, 187 Northern Colorado 14 10.3
77% 17 Notre Dame 38 29.3, 99 Stanford 31 14.1
77% 13 Miami - Florida 25 23.0, 39 Virginia 17 12.5
75% 28 Wisconsin 41 35.2, 101 Hawaii 24 24.8
75% 12 Louisiana State 19 27.9, 38 Arkansas 17 17.2
74% 142 San Jose State 26 36.8, 175 Idaho 18 26.5
74% 118 Furman 14 40.8, 138 Nicholls State 12 31.7
74% 77 Memphis 26 28.1, 113 Marshall 3 18.0
71% 34 Boise State 30 40.9, 112 Louisiana Tech 13 30.2
70% 48 New Hampshire 55 35.5, 82 Colgate 21 26.1
67% 174 Grambling 50 28.7, 202 Southern 35 22.6
67% 81 Rutgers 44 25.4, 90 Cincinnati 9 18.2
67% 43 Tennessee 27 28.3, 100 Kentucky 8 21.1
67% 16 West Virginia 45 21.0, 23 Pittsburgh 13 14.8
66% 92 Miami - Ohio 38 28.1, 146 Ohio 7 21.2
66% 41 North Carolina State 20 23.1, 51 Maryland 14 16.1
65% 26 Florida 34 28.6, 32 Florida State 7 23.2
60% 161 Florida International 52 22.2, 155 Florida Atlantic 6 19.5
58% 11 Georgia 14 17.7, 30 Georgia Tech 7 16.2
57% 232 Prairie View 30 17.4, 235 Texas Southern 27 16.0
56% 114 Southern Methodist 40 20.9, 93 Texas - El Paso 27 19.6
55% 125 Southern Illinois 21 17.3, 145 Eastern Illinois 6 16.2
55% 124 Northern Iowa 41 27.7, 107 Eastern Washington 38 26.7
52% 159 Arkansas State 31 21.6, 188 North Texas 24 21.1
46% 71 Connecticut 15 19.7, 44 South Florida 10 20.7
45% 117 California Poly 35 16.2, 130 Montana 21 17.1
45% 59 Kansas 24 18.6, 29 Iowa State 21 19.6
40% 140 Louisiana - Lafayette 54 30.2, 152 Northeast Louisiana 21 32.9
38% 168 Utah State 24 18.9, 169 New Mexico State 21 22.4
37% 132 Middle Tennessee State 17 11.3, 131 Troy State 7 15.6
37% 126 Texas State - San Marc 50 24.8, 85 Georgia Southern 35 29.5
36% 123 East Carolina 31 25.0, 72 Alabama - Birmingham 23 30.1
35% 135 Mississippi State 35 9.0, 87 Mississippi 14 13.6
34% 122 Appalachian State 34 16.2, 65 Lafayette 23 22.3
26% 96 Toledo 44 17.4, 62 Bowling Green 41 28.6
25% 102 Nevada - Reno 38 25.8, 21 Fresno State 35 37.9
23% 58 Nebraska 30 16.1, 25 Colorado 3 27.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 1.21 16 0.87 16 1.07 6 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 47 34 32.5 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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