prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 1 Texas 70 34.1, 49 Colorado 3 8.9
78% 2 Southern California 66 46.8, 29 California - Los Angel 19 28.4
75% 162 Grambling 46 33.7, 222 Alcorn State 19 23.3
75% 7 Louisville 30 36.5, 59 Connecticut 20 25.9
73% 8 West Virginia 28 23.7, 51 South Florida 13 14.4
68% 92 Texas State - San Marc 14 29.8, 119 California Poly 7 22.2
67% 5 Georgia 34 17.6, 19 Louisiana State 14 11.2
61% 74 Navy 42 27.2, 90 Army 23 23.7
56% 98 Appalachian State 38 20.4, 85 Southern Illinois 24 19.1
52% 134 Florida International 35 20.4, 118 Middle Tennessee State 31 20.0
42% 83 Tulsa 44 22.3, 96 Central Florida 27 23.8
37% 107 Hawaii 49 22.7, 55 San Diego State 38 27.3
34% 91 Akron 31 18.1, 60 Northern Illinois 30 23.7
22% 135 Furman 24 17.2, 69 Richmond 20 32.1
19% 108 Louisiana Tech 40 16.9, 40 Fresno State 28 35.5
19% 42 Florida State 27 11.9, 4 Virginia Tech 22 26.5
18% 117 Northern Iowa 24 26.4, 30 New Hampshire 21 45.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.21 5 0.92 5 1.06 4 0.30 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 17 10 12.0 0.83
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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