prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
64% 166 Grambling 45 26.6, 194 Alabama A&M 6 21.4
59% 99 Appalachian State 29 30.0, 90 Furman 23 28.1
55% 89 Northern Iowa 40 21.3, 114 Texas State - San Marc 37 20.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
2 1.76 1 1.56 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 3 3 1.8 1.69
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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