prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 69 Southern Mississippi 31 33.0, 146 Arkansas State 19 18.2
74% 20 California 35 27.4, 60 Brigham Young 28 18.0
71% 25 Arizona State 45 35.9, 54 Rutgers 40 27.5
68% 51 Kansas 42 25.0, 96 Houston 13 17.9
68% 3 Ohio State 34 28.1, 12 Notre Dame 20 21.3
67% 8 Penn State 26 25.6, 27 Florida State 23 19.3
65% 22 Clemson 19 23.1, 47 Colorado 10 17.2
62% 84 Memphis 38 24.7, 113 Akron 31 20.6
62% 73 Toledo 45 30.7, 92 Texas - El Paso 13 27.0
61% 24 Texas Christian 27 23.7, 32 Iowa State 24 20.9
60% 59 Navy 51 30.0, 79 Colorado State 30 27.2
60% 1 Texas 41 31.0, 2 Southern California 38 28.3
59% 98 Nevada - Reno 49 32.9, 112 Central Florida 48 31.0
59% 41 California - Los Angel 50 40.5, 48 Northwestern 38 38.7
59% 36 North Carolina State 14 18.5, 45 South Florida 0 17.0
53% 40 Utah 38 20.8, 42 Georgia Tech 10 20.3
51% 17 Boston College 27 23.1, 35 Boise State 21 22.8
44% 18 Oklahoma 17 25.8, 15 Oregon 14 27.1
44% 6 Virginia Tech 35 27.8, 4 Louisville 24 29.0
40% 52 Missouri 38 23.8, 44 South Carolina 31 26.2
40% 16 Florida 31 20.2, 9 Iowa 24 22.5
40% 11 West Virginia 38 18.2, 5 Georgia 35 20.8
39% 109 Appalachian State 21 24.2, 91 Northern Iowa 16 27.1
39% 31 Virginia 34 29.9, 26 Minnesota 31 33.0
39% 19 Louisiana State 40 13.4, 10 Miami - Florida 3 16.4
37% 23 Alabama 13 20.0, 13 Texas Tech 10 24.4
36% 74 Tulsa 31 21.7, 43 Fresno State 24 27.3
32% 21 Wisconsin 24 22.3, 7 Auburn 10 29.3
28% 38 Nebraska 32 15.3, 14 Michigan 28 23.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 1.05 15 0.84 4 1.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 29 17 18.2 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net