2005 Bowl Games Results for College Football Division IA & IAA

prob rnk winning_team        actual pred    rnk losing_team         actual pred

 80%  69 Southern Mississippi    31 33.0,   146 Arkansas State          19 18.2
 74%  20 California              35 27.4,    60 Brigham Young           28 18.0
 71%  25 Arizona State           45 35.9,    54 Rutgers                 40 27.5
 68%  51 Kansas                  42 25.0,    96 Houston                 13 17.9
 68%   3 Ohio State              34 28.1,    12 Notre Dame              20 21.3
 67%   8 Penn State              26 25.6,    27 Florida State           23 19.3
 65%  22 Clemson                 19 23.1,    47 Colorado                10 17.2
 62%  84 Memphis                 38 24.7,   113 Akron                   31 20.6
 62%  73 Toledo                  45 30.7,    92 Texas - El Paso         13 27.0
 61%  24 Texas Christian         27 23.7,    32 Iowa State              24 20.9
 60%  59 Navy                    51 30.0,    79 Colorado State          30 27.2
 60%   1 Texas                   41 31.0,     2 Southern California     38 28.3
 59%  98 Nevada - Reno           49 32.9,   112 Central Florida         48 31.0
 59%  41 California - Los Angel  50 40.5,    48 Northwestern            38 38.7
 59%  36 North Carolina State    14 18.5,    45 South Florida            0 17.0
 53%  40 Utah                    38 20.8,    42 Georgia Tech            10 20.3
 51%  17 Boston College          27 23.1,    35 Boise State             21 22.8

 44%  18 Oklahoma                17 25.8,    15 Oregon                  14 27.1
 44%   6 Virginia Tech           35 27.8,     4 Louisville              24 29.0
 40%  52 Missouri                38 23.8,    44 South Carolina          31 26.2
 40%  16 Florida                 31 20.2,     9 Iowa                    24 22.5
 40%  11 West Virginia           38 18.2,     5 Georgia                 35 20.8
 39% 109 Appalachian State       21 24.2,    91 Northern Iowa           16 27.1
 39%  31 Virginia                34 29.9,    26 Minnesota               31 33.0
 39%  19 Louisiana State         40 13.4,    10 Miami - Florida          3 16.4
 37%  23 Alabama                 13 20.0,    13 Texas Tech              10 24.4
 36%  74 Tulsa                   31 21.7,    43 Fresno State            24 27.3
 32%  21 Wisconsin               24 22.3,     7 Auburn                  10 29.3
 28%  38 Nebraska                32 15.3,    14 Michigan                28 23.3

  results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
               50%-59%  60%-69%  70%-79%  80%-89%  90%-99%     100%
               10 1.05  15 0.84   4 1.01   0 0.00   0 0.00   0 0.00

  total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected):  29  17  18.2 0.93

  actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
  actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
  actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)

NOTE: exact predicted scores are not released until after game time.

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