prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred 80% 69 Southern Mississippi 31 33.0, 146 Arkansas State 19 18.2 74% 20 California 35 27.4, 60 Brigham Young 28 18.0 71% 25 Arizona State 45 35.9, 54 Rutgers 40 27.5 68% 51 Kansas 42 25.0, 96 Houston 13 17.9 68% 3 Ohio State 34 28.1, 12 Notre Dame 20 21.3 67% 8 Penn State 26 25.6, 27 Florida State 23 19.3 65% 22 Clemson 19 23.1, 47 Colorado 10 17.2 62% 84 Memphis 38 24.7, 113 Akron 31 20.6 62% 73 Toledo 45 30.7, 92 Texas - El Paso 13 27.0 61% 24 Texas Christian 27 23.7, 32 Iowa State 24 20.9 60% 59 Navy 51 30.0, 79 Colorado State 30 27.2 60% 1 Texas 41 31.0, 2 Southern California 38 28.3 59% 98 Nevada - Reno 49 32.9, 112 Central Florida 48 31.0 59% 41 California - Los Angel 50 40.5, 48 Northwestern 38 38.7 59% 36 North Carolina State 14 18.5, 45 South Florida 0 17.0 53% 40 Utah 38 20.8, 42 Georgia Tech 10 20.3 51% 17 Boston College 27 23.1, 35 Boise State 21 22.8 44% 18 Oklahoma 17 25.8, 15 Oregon 14 27.1 44% 6 Virginia Tech 35 27.8, 4 Louisville 24 29.0 40% 52 Missouri 38 23.8, 44 South Carolina 31 26.2 40% 16 Florida 31 20.2, 9 Iowa 24 22.5 40% 11 West Virginia 38 18.2, 5 Georgia 35 20.8 39% 109 Appalachian State 21 24.2, 91 Northern Iowa 16 27.1 39% 31 Virginia 34 29.9, 26 Minnesota 31 33.0 39% 19 Louisiana State 40 13.4, 10 Miami - Florida 3 16.4 37% 23 Alabama 13 20.0, 13 Texas Tech 10 24.4 36% 74 Tulsa 31 21.7, 43 Fresno State 24 27.3 32% 21 Wisconsin 24 22.3, 7 Auburn 10 29.3 28% 38 Nebraska 32 15.3, 14 Michigan 28 23.3 results by prob (number of games, actual/expected): 50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100% 10 1.05 15 0.84 4 1.01 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00 total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 29 17 18.2 0.93 actual/expected = 1 -- model right on actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected) actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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