19 Jan 2007: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  2   7 15.8  7.4 Louisiana State          121 33   0 12.9  4.3 Illinois State          
  2 15   6 15.4  7.5 Southern California      122 21   0 12.0  5.0 Towson                  
  3  3   6 15.5  7.3 Florida                  123 39   0 13.1  4.2 Nevada - Las Vegas      
  4  3   6 14.8  7.7 Ohio State               124 36   0 12.3  4.8 Northern Iowa           
  5  4   6 15.7  6.6 Texas                    125 28   0 13.2  4.1 Texas - El Paso         
  6  4   6 16.0  6.4 Brigham Young            126 36   0 12.3  4.6 Holy Cross              
  7  4   6 15.5  6.7 Louisville               127 33   0 13.3  3.8 Rice                    
  8  5   5 13.9  7.8 Auburn                   128 32   0 11.7  5.0 Hofstra                 
  9  9   5 13.9  7.7 Virginia Tech            129 21   0 11.6  5.1 San Diego State         
 10  9   5 14.8  7.0 Oklahoma                 130 14   0 12.3  4.5 California - Davis      
 11  6   5 14.7  6.8 Boston College           131 31   0 12.4  4.4 Northeastern            
 12 12   5 14.8  6.8 Michigan                 132 40   0 11.3  5.2 California Poly         
 13  7   5 16.3  5.6 West Virginia            133 25   0 11.9  4.8 Duke                    
 14 10   5 15.4  6.2 California               134 27   0 12.6  4.2 Bowling Green           
 15 27   5 14.8  6.6 Georgia                  135 31   0 12.5  4.2 William & Mary          
 16 17   5 14.9  6.4 South Carolina           136 69   0 12.0  4.6 Hampton                 
 17  7   5 15.3  6.0 Clemson                  137 14   0 11.7  4.8 Montana State           
 18 39   4 13.3  7.4 Penn State               138 43   0 11.7  4.8 Portland State          
 19  7   5 15.0  6.2 Nebraska                 139 19   0 12.6  4.1 Furman                  
 20 13   4 13.4  7.3 Wisconsin                140 51   0 12.7  4.0 Tulane                  
 21  9   4 15.0  6.2 Arkansas                 141 32   0 10.4  5.6 Columbia                
 22 15   4 14.3  6.6 Tennessee                142 42   0 12.0  4.5 Colgate                 
 23 15   4 16.0  5.4 Texas Tech               143 36   0 10.8  5.3 Dartmouth               
 24  9   4 13.8  7.0 Texas Christian          144 15   0 11.8  4.6 Georgia Southern        
 25 16   4 15.5  5.7 Notre Dame               145 33   0 13.2  3.6 South Dakota State      
 26  9   4 15.1  6.0 Boise State              146 18   0 10.5  5.5 Kent State              
 27 14   4 14.3  6.4 Rutgers                  147 26   0 13.1  3.6 New Mexico State        
 28 44   4 15.6  5.4 Oregon                   148 20   0 11.8  4.5 Northeast Louisiana     
 29 22   4 14.0  6.5 Alabama                  149 20   0 12.1  4.2 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 30 22   4 14.7  5.9 Oregon State             150 31   0 13.6  3.1 Coastal Carolina        
 31 11   4 14.4  6.1 California - Los Angeles 151 39   0 12.0  4.3 Rhode Island            
 32 55   4 14.6  6.0 Pittsburgh               152 16   0 11.1  4.9 Arkansas State          
 33 32   4 15.0  5.6 Arizona State            153 89   0 10.3  5.5 Monmouth                
 34 10   4 15.3  5.3 Oklahoma State           154 70   0  9.8  5.8 Albany                  
 35 14   4 14.7  5.8 Missouri                 155 15   0 10.7  4.9 Florida Atlantic        
 36 11   4 13.9  6.3 Utah                     156 20   0 11.8  4.1 Western Kentucky        
 37 14   4 14.4  6.0 Florida State            157 56   0 11.7  4.1 Central Connecticut     
 38 11   3 13.3  6.7 Miami - Florida          158 34   0 12.5  3.4 Northern Arizona        
 39 11   3 14.1  6.0 Texas A&M                159 39   0 10.9  4.6 Eastern Michigan        
 40 50   3 14.2  6.0 Iowa                     160 23   0 11.0  4.5 Bucknell                
 41 15   3 16.0  4.7 Hawaii                   161 21   0 12.6  3.3 Western Illinois        
 42 48   3 14.9  5.4 Minnesota                162 20   0 11.5  4.1 Eastern Washington      
 43 11   3 13.2  6.5 South Florida            163 78   0 11.3  4.2 Jacksonville State      
 44 11   3 13.8  6.0 Georgia Tech             164 65   0 11.0  4.4 South Carolina State    
 45 11   3 12.6  6.8 Wake Forest              165 39  -1 11.0  4.4 Duquesne                
 46 19   3 13.5  6.1 Cincinnati               166 34  -1 11.7  3.8 Buffalo                 
 47 26   3 13.0  6.4 Massachusetts            167 30  -1 10.2  4.7 Florida International   
 48 38   3 13.9  5.7 Washington State         168 27  -1 10.5  4.5 North Texas             
 49 11   3 13.7  5.8 Navy                     169 41  -1 11.2  3.8 Idaho                   
 50 16   3 13.7  5.7 Maryland                 170 35  -1  9.6  5.0 Utah State              
 51 35   3 13.3  6.0 James Madison            171 23  -1 10.6  4.2 Stephen F. Austin       
 52 43   3 13.6  5.7 Harvard                  172 44  -1 10.6  4.2 Eastern Illinois        
 53 28   3 13.5  5.8 Kansas State             173 38  -1 12.2  2.9 Louisiana Tech          
 54 33   2 15.0  4.6 New Hampshire            174 14  -1  9.9  4.7 Elon                    
 55 23   2 14.6  4.9 Kentucky                 175 66  -1 10.8  3.9 Delaware State          
 56 23   2 13.8  5.5 Vanderbilt               176 23  -1 11.3  3.5 The Citadel             
 57 28   2 12.1  6.7 Arizona                  177 62  -1 10.6  4.0 Eastern Kentucky        
 58 31   2 13.9  5.4 Washington               178 18  -1 10.6  4.0 Fordham                 
 59 71   2 13.8  5.5 Connecticut              179 14  -1 11.2  3.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 60 12   2 13.1  6.0 Southern Mississippi     180 26  -1 11.2  3.4 Stony Brook             
 61 24   2 14.3  5.0 Kansas                   181 18  -2 11.1  3.5 Weber State             
 62 12   2 12.7  6.2 North Dakota State       182 65  -2 11.6  3.1 Bethune - Cookman       
 63 12   2 13.4  5.6 Tulsa                    183 26  -2 11.1  3.5 McNeese State           
 64 21   2 14.7  4.6 Houston                  184 29  -2 10.4  3.9 Northwestern State      
 65 55   2 13.8  5.2 Purdue                   185 57  -2 10.4  3.9 Tennessee - Martin      
 66 47   2 13.2  5.7 Princeton                186 17  -2 11.2  3.2 Sam Houston State       
 67 14   2 12.9  5.8 Nevada - Reno            187 24  -2 10.2  4.0 Liberty                 
 68 27   2 14.2  4.9 Michigan State           188 15  -2 10.3  3.9 Southwest Missouri State
 69 13   2 12.8  5.9 North Carolina State     189 31  -2 10.3  3.8 Temple                  
 70 22   2 13.4  5.4 Appalachian State        190 26  -2  9.6  4.3 Robert Morris           
 71 22   2 12.2  6.3 Colorado                 191 18  -2 10.0  4.0 Georgetown              
 72 41   2 11.9  6.4 Virginia                 192 22  -2 10.7  3.4 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 73 43   2 13.0  5.6 Yale                     193 14  -2 10.9  3.1 Gardner - Webb          
 74 41   2 12.8  5.7 Northern Illinois        194 60  -2  9.8  4.0 Morgan State            
 75 13   2 13.9  4.9 Central Michigan         195 **  -2  9.1  4.5 Drake                   
 76 21   2 13.5  5.1 Wyoming                  196 61  -2 10.2  3.5 Alabama A&M             
 77 14   2 13.4  5.1 Air Force                197 13  -2  9.9  3.7 Sacramento State        
 78 60   2 12.8  5.5 Northwestern             198 39  -2 10.8  3.1 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 79 14   2 12.3  5.9 Colorado State           199 23  -2  9.6  4.0 Nicholls State          
 80 68   1 13.6  4.9 Fresno State             200 35  -2 10.9  3.0 Grambling               
 81 15   1 12.7  5.5 East Carolina            201 21  -2 10.9  2.9 Florida A&M             
 82 18   1 11.8  6.1 Richmond                 202 20  -3 10.4  3.2 Charleston Southern     
 83 35   1 12.1  5.9 Mississippi              203 **  -3 10.7  2.9 Davidson                
 84 22   1 11.9  6.1 Mississippi State        204 23  -3 11.3  2.4 Idaho State             
 85 40   1 13.3  5.0 Western Michigan         205 70  -3 11.0  2.6 Southern                
 86 54   1 12.8  5.3 Pennsylvania             206 68  -3 10.0  3.4 Tennessee State         
 87 64   1 12.4  5.6 Syracuse                 207 13  -3  9.0  4.2 Howard                  
 88 37   1 13.1  5.1 Iowa State               208 26  -3  9.6  3.6 Western Carolina        
 89 28   1 12.9  5.2 New Mexico               209 32  -3 10.4  3.0 Alcorn State            
 90 43   1 13.4  4.8 Lehigh                   210 22  -3  9.8  3.4 Marist                  
 91 45   1 13.7  4.6 Indiana                  211 22  -3 10.3  3.0 Sacred Heart            
 92 27   1 10.6  6.9 Maine                    212 36  -3  8.8  4.3 Northern Colorado       
 93 27   1 13.9  4.3 Ball State               213 45  -3  9.5  3.6 Alabama State           
 94 27   1 13.1  4.8 Southern Methodist       214 48  -3 10.4  2.7 Dayton                  
 95 39   1 12.6  5.2 Central Florida          215 13  -3  9.8  3.1 Southeast Louisiana     
 96 46   1 13.9  4.2 Marshall                 216 60  -3  9.8  3.0 Tennessee Tech          
 97 77   1 11.3  6.1 Stanford                 217 17  -3  9.4  3.3 Southern Utah           
 98 51   1 13.6  4.4 Baylor                   218 19  -3  8.7  3.8 Wagner                  
 99 21   1 13.0  4.8 San Jose State           219 13  -4 11.6  1.5 Indiana State           
100 19   1 13.0  4.7 Illinois                 220 55  -4 10.5  2.2 Jackson State           
101 15   1 13.6  4.3 North Carolina           221 53  -4  9.4  2.9 Mississippi Valley State
102 60   1 13.2  4.5 Toledo                   222 35  -4 10.4  2.1 Norfolk State           
103 47   1 12.8  4.8 Lafayette                223 47  -4  8.6  3.5 Iona                    
104 34   1 13.2  4.5 Southern Illinois        224 11  -4  8.7  3.3 Samford                 
105 27   1 11.6  5.6 Ohio                     225 11  -4  9.7  2.5 Southeast Missouri State
106 30   1 12.1  5.3 Montana                  226 14  -4  9.8  2.3 Murray State            
107 20   1 12.5  5.0 Alabama - Birmingham     227 10  -5 10.3  1.7 Virginia Military       
108 19   1 12.5  5.0 Troy State               228 10  -5 10.8  1.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
109 54   1 12.8  4.7 Miami - Ohio             229 53  -5  9.8  2.1 Jacksonville            
110 22   1 12.8  4.7 Youngstown State         230 48  -5  9.2  2.4 Morehead State          
111 44   1 13.5  4.2 Brown                    231 32  -4  7.7  3.6 Prairie View            
112 25   1 13.4  4.2 Delaware                 232 25  -5  9.2  2.0 Texas Southern          
113 70   1 13.4  4.3 San Diego                233 48  -5  8.2  2.7 Austin Peay             
114 42   0 12.5  4.9 Wofford                  234  8  -5  8.1  2.6 La Salle                
115 45   0 12.1  5.1 Army                     235 13  -6  7.9  2.5 North Carolina A&T      
116 18   0 13.1  4.4 Villanova                236  7  -6  9.2  1.5 Saint Peter's           
117 47   0 12.4  4.8 Akron                    237 16  -6  6.9  2.5 Butler                  
118 21   0 12.9  4.5 Memphis                  238  6  -7  8.3  1.0 Valparaiso              
119 46   0 12.7  4.6 Cornell                  239 62  -8  7.1  1.5 Savannah State          
120 31   0 12.1  5.0 Middle Tennessee State  

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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