19 Jan 2007: Current model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA)

Rankings determined from model fit at the current week in the season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  4   7 16.1  7.7 Louisiana State          121 16   0 12.9  4.4 Illinois State          
  2  4   7 15.8  7.5 Southern California      122 66   0 12.1  4.9 Akron                   
  3  5   7 15.7  7.4 Florida                  123 56   0 11.3  5.4 Ohio                    
  4  5   6 15.9  6.9 Brigham Young            124 56   0 11.9  4.9 Middle Tennessee State  
  5  5   6 14.6  7.5 Ohio State               125 35   0 13.1  4.0 Texas - El Paso         
  6 16   6 15.9  6.6 Texas                    126 15   0 11.6  5.1 San Diego State         
  7  7   5 14.0  7.9 Auburn                   127 37   0 12.3  4.6 Holy Cross              
  8  6   6 15.9  6.5 California               128 14   0 12.4  4.6 California - Davis      
  9  9   5 15.4  6.6 Louisville               129 29   0 11.8  5.0 Hofstra                 
 10 15   5 15.4  6.4 Georgia                  130 14   0 12.6  4.4 Northeastern            
 11 11   5 15.5  6.3 Oklahoma                 131 42   0 11.4  5.2 California Poly         
 12 37   5 16.8  5.2 Texas Tech               132 17   0 12.0  4.7 Duke                    
 13 27   5 13.4  7.6 Penn State               133 32   0 12.6  4.2 Bowling Green           
 14 39   5 14.0  7.2 Virginia Tech            134 43   0 12.1  4.5 Hampton                 
 15  8   5 16.6  5.3 West Virginia            135 45   0 10.5  5.7 Columbia                
 16  9   5 14.8  6.6 Boston College           136 21   0 12.5  4.2 William & Mary          
 17 27   5 15.9  5.6 Boise State              137 24   0 11.8  4.7 Montana State           
 18 54   5 14.7  6.5 Michigan                 138 34   0 13.2  3.6 New Mexico State        
 19 17   4 13.4  7.4 Wisconsin                139 60   0 11.6  4.8 Portland State          
 20 26   5 15.2  6.1 South Carolina           140 53   0 12.6  4.0 Tulane                  
 21 10   4 13.6  7.1 Texas Christian          141 31   0 10.9  5.3 Dartmouth               
 22 20   4 14.8  6.2 Arkansas                 142 37   0 12.1  4.4 Colgate                 
 23 10   4 14.8  6.2 Nebraska                 143 18   0 12.5  4.1 Furman                  
 24 10   4 14.2  6.6 Rutgers                  144 38   0 13.3  3.5 South Dakota State      
 25 14   4 15.5  5.5 Oregon State             145 28   0 11.8  4.5 Northeast Louisiana     
 26 25   4 14.0  6.6 Tennessee                146 14   0 11.7  4.6 Georgia Southern        
 27 37   4 14.8  5.9 Clemson                  147 29   0 10.4  5.5 Kent State              
 28 12   4 15.8  5.2 Oklahoma State           148 40   0 12.2  4.2 Rhode Island            
 29 10   4 14.0  6.4 Utah                     149 57   0 13.6  3.1 Coastal Carolina        
 30 85   4 15.2  5.5 Notre Dame               150 22   0 12.1  4.2 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 31 11   4 14.7  5.9 California - Los Angeles 151 19   0 11.2  4.8 Arkansas State          
 32 61   4 14.6  5.9 Pittsburgh               152 47   0 12.8  3.6 Rice                    
 33 11   4 16.1  4.7 Hawaii                   153 43   0 10.7  5.1 Florida Atlantic        
 34 24   4 13.8  6.4 Miami - Florida          154 82   0 10.2  5.4 Monmouth                
 35 11   4 14.1  6.1 Alabama                  155 28   0  9.6  5.8 Albany                  
 36 16   3 13.2  6.7 South Florida            156 61   0 12.5  3.5 Northern Arizona        
 37 13   4 14.6  5.8 Florida State            157 50   0 11.7  4.1 Central Connecticut     
 38 47   4 14.8  5.5 Arizona State            158 14   0 11.7  4.1 Western Kentucky        
 39 15   3 15.2  5.2 Missouri                 159 33   0 11.5  4.1 Eastern Washington      
 40 15   3 14.3  5.8 Iowa                     160 29   0 11.1  4.4 Bucknell                
 41 84   3 14.8  5.4 Oregon                   161 76   0 11.4  4.2 Jacksonville State      
 42 12   3 13.5  6.3 Maryland                 162 13   0 12.6  3.2 Western Illinois        
 43 12   3 14.1  5.9 Georgia Tech             163 50   0 11.0  4.4 Duquesne                
 44 12   3 14.7  5.3 Kentucky                 164 59  -1 11.0  4.4 South Carolina State    
 45 14   3 14.1  5.8 Cincinnati               165 48  -1 10.6  4.7 Eastern Michigan        
 46 19   3 12.6  6.8 Wake Forest              166 23  -1 11.7  3.8 Buffalo                 
 47 16   3 14.1  5.6 Navy                     167 25  -1 10.2  4.8 Florida International   
 48 39   3 15.1  4.8 Minnesota                168 29  -1 10.4  4.4 North Texas             
 49 12   3 13.3  6.2 Southern Mississippi     169 38  -1 11.2  3.8 Idaho                   
 50 50   3 13.9  5.6 Washington State         170 32  -1  9.7  4.9 Utah State              
 51 82   3 13.7  5.7 Texas A&M                171 53  -1 10.5  4.2 Eastern Illinois        
 52 41   3 13.3  5.9 Kansas State             172 17  -1 10.5  4.3 Stephen F. Austin       
 53 36   3 13.3  5.9 James Madison            173 14  -1 11.3  3.6 The Citadel             
 54 28   3 14.0  5.4 Appalachian State        174 36  -1 12.2  2.9 Louisiana Tech          
 55 38   2 15.0  4.6 New Hampshire            175 79  -1 10.6  4.1 Eastern Kentucky        
 56 13   2 12.9  6.2 North Dakota State       176 22  -1 10.7  3.9 Fordham                 
 57 27   2 14.0  5.3 Washington               177 21  -1  9.7  4.7 Elon                    
 58 18   2 13.7  5.5 Vanderbilt               178 14  -1 11.3  3.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 59 35   2 12.1  6.7 Arizona                  179 57  -1 10.7  3.9 Delaware State          
 60 41   2 13.4  5.7 Harvard                  180 35  -1 11.3  3.4 Stony Brook             
 61 23   2 15.0  4.4 Houston                  181 16  -2 11.1  3.5 Weber State             
 62 45   2 13.0  5.9 Massachusetts            182 14  -2 10.4  4.0 Liberty                 
 63 44   2 14.3  4.9 Kansas                   183 18  -2 11.0  3.5 McNeese State           
 64 86   2 13.7  5.3 Connecticut              184 27  -2 10.4  3.9 Northwestern State      
 65 31   2 13.9  5.1 Central Michigan         185 28  -2 10.5  3.9 Tennessee - Martin      
 66 49   2 13.3  5.6 Princeton                186 44  -2 11.4  3.1 Bethune - Cookman       
 67 21   2 14.2  4.9 Michigan State           187 14  -2 10.3  3.9 Southwest Missouri State
 68 45   2 13.1  5.6 Yale                     188 31  -2  9.7  4.3 Robert Morris           
 69 16   2 13.1  5.6 Tulsa                    189 19  -2 11.1  3.2 Sam Houston State       
 70 47   2 12.2  6.3 Colorado                 190 30  -2 10.3  3.8 Temple                  
 71 22   2 12.7  5.9 North Carolina State     191 17  -2 10.1  3.9 Georgetown              
 72 18   2 13.3  5.4 Nevada - Reno            192 77  -2 10.0  3.9 Alabama A&M             
 73 43   2 11.8  6.5 Virginia                 193 **  -2  9.3  4.4 Drake                   
 74 31   2 13.6  5.1 Wyoming                  194 18  -2 10.9  3.2 Gardner - Webb          
 75 79   2 12.6  5.9 Northern Illinois        195 29  -2 10.6  3.4 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 76 50   2 13.1  5.4 Purdue                   196 55  -2  9.9  3.9 Morgan State            
 77 19   2 12.8  5.6 Northwestern             197 33  -2 10.9  3.0 Florida A&M             
 78 43   2 13.4  5.1 Air Force                198 98  -2  9.9  3.7 Sacramento State        
 79 19   2 12.2  5.9 Mississippi              199 16  -2 10.4  3.3 Charleston Southern     
 80 52   2 13.5  4.9 Fresno State             200 31  -2 10.8  3.0 Grambling               
 81 22   1 12.9  5.4 Troy State               201 20  -2  9.5  3.9 Nicholls State          
 82 15   1 12.2  5.8 Colorado State           202 **  -3 10.8  2.9 Davidson                
 83 21   1 11.9  6.1 Richmond                 203 81  -3 11.0  2.7 Southern                
 84 21   1 13.0  5.2 Iowa State               204 29  -2  9.0  4.3 Howard                  
 85 14   1 11.9  6.0 Mississippi State        205 29  -3 10.3  3.2 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 86 73   1 12.4  5.6 Syracuse                 206 49  -3 10.4  3.1 Alcorn State            
 87 54   1 12.8  5.2 Pennsylvania             207 21  -3 11.3  2.4 Idaho State             
 88 20   1 10.5  6.9 Maine                    208 32  -3  9.9  3.4 Marist                  
 89 43   1 13.7  4.6 Indiana                  209 71  -3  9.9  3.4 Tennessee State         
 90 27   1 13.9  4.4 Ball State               210 46  -3  9.7  3.6 Alabama State           
 91 45   1 13.6  4.6 Western Michigan         211 23  -3  8.7  4.3 Northern Colorado       
 92 14   1 12.8  5.2 San Jose State           212 17  -3 10.4  2.9 Sacred Heart            
 93 41   1 13.5  4.6 Lehigh                   213 53  -3  9.6  3.5 Western Carolina        
 94 48   1 12.4  5.4 East Carolina            214 29  -3 10.4  2.7 Dayton                  
 95 62   1 11.4  6.1 Stanford                 215 58  -3 10.0  2.9 Tennessee Tech          
 96 33   1 12.5  5.3 New Mexico               216 14  -3  9.8  3.1 Southeast Louisiana     
 97 24   1 13.1  4.8 Southern Methodist       217 18  -4  9.4  3.2 Southern Utah           
 98 36   1 12.6  5.2 Central Florida          218 14  -3  8.7  3.7 Wagner                  
 99 57   1 13.5  4.4 Baylor                   219 13  -4 11.6  1.5 Indiana State           
100 62   1 13.8  4.2 Marshall                 220 53  -4 10.7  2.2 Jackson State           
101 13   1 12.1  5.4 Montana                  221 59  -4  9.5  2.8 Mississippi Valley State
102 30   1 13.7  4.2 North Carolina           222 33  -4 10.4  2.1 Norfolk State           
103 51   1 13.2  4.5 Toledo                   223 23  -4  8.6  3.4 Iona                    
104 23   1 13.0  4.7 Illinois                 224 12  -4  8.7  3.2 Samford                 
105 55   1 12.8  4.8 Lafayette                225 17  -4  9.8  2.3 Murray State            
106 68   1 13.3  4.4 San Diego                226 13  -4  9.7  2.4 Southeast Missouri State
107 19   1 12.5  4.9 Alabama - Birmingham     227 30  -4 10.9  1.3 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
108 19   1 13.1  4.5 Southern Illinois        228 10  -5 10.4  1.6 Virginia Military       
109 54   1 12.9  4.6 Miami - Ohio             229 79  -5  9.9  2.0 Jacksonville            
110 18   1 13.1  4.4 Villanova                230 52  -4  7.7  3.6 Prairie View            
111 56   1 12.5  4.9 Wofford                  231 39  -5  9.2  2.4 Morehead State          
112 43   0 12.1  5.2 Army                     232 18  -5  9.3  2.0 Texas Southern          
113 15   0 12.9  4.6 Memphis                  233 99  -5  8.2  2.7 Austin Peay             
114 22   0 13.0  4.5 Youngstown State         234  9  -5  8.2  2.5 La Salle                
115 25   0 13.4  4.1 Delaware                 235  7  -6  9.2  1.4 Saint Peter's           
116 40   0 13.4  4.1 Brown                    236 31  -6  7.9  2.5 North Carolina A&T      
117 48   0 12.7  4.6 Cornell                  237  7  -6  6.9  2.5 Butler                  
118 30   0 13.2  4.2 Nevada - Las Vegas       238  6  -8  8.3  0.9 Valparaiso              
119 22   0 11.9  5.1 Towson                   239 87  -8  7.1  1.4 Savannah State          
120 36   0 12.4  4.7 Northern Iowa           

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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