prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 1 Texas 56 60.5, 171 North Texas 7 1.8
89% 46 Missouri 47 57.1, 225 Murray State 7 7.9
88% 29 Purdue 60 53.2, 210 Indiana State 35 6.3
88% 21 Arizona State 35 54.3, 193 Northern Arizona 14 10.6
86% 40 Boise State 45 48.5, 201 Sacramento State 0 7.0
85% 31 Texas A&M 35 46.1, 178 The Citadel 3 10.1
85% 4 Virginia Tech 38 45.9, 141 Northeastern 0 4.7
84% 36 Michigan State 27 45.9, 163 Idaho 17 14.8
84% 5 Georgia 48 45.0, 144 Western Kentucky 12 7.4
83% 8 Texas Tech 35 43.7, 121 Southern Methodist 3 12.4
83% 7 Louisiana State 45 42.8, 140 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 6.3
83% 6 Louisville 59 48.1, 98 Kentucky 28 22.0
82% 26 Clemson 54 38.8, 170 Florida Atlantic 6 3.3
81% 49 South Florida 41 40.4, 182 McNeese State 10 8.2
80% 68 Colorado State 30 40.6, 186 Weber State 6 13.1
80% 9 Penn State 34 37.8, 108 Akron 16 7.7
79% 209 Southeast Missouri Sta 38 41.7, 239 Austin Peay 13 15.5
79% 72 Tulsa 45 40.1, 168 Stephen F. Austin 7 15.6
79% 23 Minnesota 44 41.5, 165 Kent State 0 16.4
79% 16 West Virginia 42 37.1, 118 Marshall 10 9.0
79% 12 Iowa 41 35.7, 122 Montana 7 4.8
79% 3 Ohio State 35 36.0, 70 Northern Illinois 12 8.3
78% 159 Towson 30 41.9, 224 Morgan State 2 22.2
78% 55 Hofstra 17 38.5, 199 Stony Brook 8 12.7
77% 156 Northeast Louisiana 24 35.4, 222 Alcorn State 6 13.6
77% 50 Kansas 49 31.2, 147 Northwestern State 18 5.5
77% 17 Oklahoma 24 36.2, 93 Alabama - Birmingham 17 14.1
76% 142 Ohio 29 34.4, 216 Tennessee - Martin 3 12.9
76% 94 Oklahoma State 52 35.9, 173 Southwest Missouri Sta 10 15.5
76% 39 Fresno State 28 39.4, 99 Nevada - Reno 19 23.1
76% 18 Alabama 25 32.7, 92 Hawaii 17 11.7
76% 10 Auburn 40 36.1, 59 Washington State 14 17.7
75% 74 Wyoming 38 33.3, 151 Utah State 7 14.5
75% 64 Oregon State 56 38.1, 127 Eastern Washington 17 21.8
75% 14 Florida 34 34.3, 67 Southern Mississippi 7 15.9
75% 13 Michigan 27 34.9, 56 Vanderbilt 7 17.5
75% 2 Southern California 50 38.3, 44 Arkansas 14 21.4
74% 80 Indiana 39 38.3, 128 Western Michigan 20 23.7
74% 63 Connecticut 52 31.9, 136 Rhode Island 7 12.9
74% 30 North Carolina State 23 29.9, 111 Appalachian State 10 10.4
73% 115 Lafayette 25 31.9, 208 Sacred Heart 14 13.5
73% 77 Washington 35 30.9, 145 San Jose State 29 12.9
73% 60 Navy 28 36.7, 120 East Carolina 23 22.3
72% 116 Furman 17 33.5, 166 Jacksonville State 13 18.4
72% 45 Maryland 27 33.8, 102 William & Mary 14 18.3
72% 19 Oregon 48 31.8, 57 Stanford 10 15.7
71% 221 Saint Francis - Pennsy 38 35.0, 235 Saint Peter's 3 21.3
71% 114 Northern Iowa 48 35.1, 197 Drake 7 21.4
71% 101 Illinois 42 27.2, 172 Eastern Illinois 17 9.6
71% 38 Nebraska 49 31.3, 88 Louisiana Tech 10 15.6
70% 191 Virginia Military 20 26.4, 228 Davidson 19 9.6
70% 107 Cincinnati 31 29.2, 160 Eastern Kentucky 0 13.8
70% 33 Iowa State 45 32.1, 69 Toledo 43 18.2
70% 22 Wisconsin 35 33.8, 82 Bowling Green 14 20.1
70% 15 Boston College 31 28.4, 104 Central Michigan 24 12.0
69% 185 Western Illinois 31 30.8, 219 Morehead State 6 16.8
69% 135 Nevada - Las Vegas 54 33.9, 175 Idaho State 10 21.7
67% 78 Kansas State 24 33.7, 100 Illinois State 23 23.6
66% 139 Troy State 38 26.0, 180 Alabama State 0 14.4
66% 54 Massachusetts 28 22.9, 113 Colgate 7 10.2
65% 167 Dayton 21 25.7, 202 Robert Morris 14 14.5
65% 125 Holy Cross 26 24.5, 200 Georgetown 13 13.1
64% 105 Central Florida 35 31.2, 126 Villanova 16 22.7
64% 66 Wake Forest 20 24.7, 112 Syracuse 10 14.2
63% 207 Wagner 38 31.2, 231 La Salle 15 24.2
63% 205 Gardner - Webb 49 35.7, 229 Jacksonville 14 29.0
63% 179 Central Connecticut 34 28.1, 195 Marist 6 20.4
63% 129 Middle Tennessee State 7 26.0, 153 Florida International 6 16.8
62% 133 California - Davis 38 20.8, 188 Northern Colorado 7 12.7
62% 95 Houston 31 29.5, 143 Rice 30 23.3
62% 42 South Carolina 15 20.2, 106 Mississippi State 0 12.4
62% 32 California - Los Angel 31 39.7, 34 Utah 10 34.9
61% 194 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 32.8, 223 Tennessee Tech 7 28.2
61% 164 New Mexico State 30 26.4, 176 Southeast Louisiana 15 20.3
61% 11 Notre Dame 14 25.1, 47 Georgia Tech 10 19.3
60% 154 Hampton 27 22.2, 181 Grambling 26 17.3
60% 148 Ball State 38 28.7, 150 Eastern Michigan 20 24.2
60% 24 Texas Christian 17 21.8, 76 Baylor 7 16.8
59% 198 Alabama A&M 27 15.1, 226 Tennessee State 20 10.5
59% 53 Arizona 16 24.9, 51 Brigham Young 13 21.0
57% 87 Mississippi 28 20.3, 85 Memphis 25 17.4
56% 192 Delaware State 34 19.2, 203 Florida A&M 14 16.8
56% 37 Pittsburgh 38 24.0, 28 Virginia 13 21.7
55% 174 Bucknell 31 19.4, 158 Duquesne 28 17.3
55% 84 Richmond 13 18.6, 124 Duke 0 16.6
53% 196 Buffalo 9 13.1, 183 Temple 3 11.7
52% 35 Tennessee 35 17.9, 27 California 18 17.1
51% 233 Texas Southern 17 17.8, 234 Prairie View 14 17.4
50% 218 Mississippi Valley Sta 10 22.2, 220 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 0 22.0
47% 162 Wofford 28 19.7, 137 South Carolina State 21 21.0
46% 52 Northwestern 21 30.5, 65 Miami - Ohio 3 31.9
43% 62 Rutgers 21 23.7, 73 North Carolina 16 26.2
40% 189 Monmouth 23 14.2, 184 Fordham 9 19.1
39% 204 Southern 30 22.9, 187 Bethune - Cookman 29 28.3
39% 146 Arkansas State 14 20.2, 96 Army 6 25.7
39% 25 Florida State 13 16.3, 20 Miami - Florida 10 22.6
35% 89 Texas - El Paso 34 18.2, 58 San Diego State 27 28.3
33% 206 Elon 23 9.0, 157 Coastal Carolina 20 23.3
27% 130 Portland State 17 18.9, 71 New Mexico 6 34.5
24% 190 Albany 17 6.2, 91 Lehigh 16 30.7
23% 138 Montana State 19 9.4, 41 Colorado 10 33.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
17 1.37 27 1.28 42 1.24 14 1.18 1 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 89 70.9 1.26
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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