prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
89% 16 West Virginia 52 52.7, 167 Eastern Washington 3 13.1
87% 34 Miami - Florida 51 46.1, 220 Florida A&M 10 1.2
87% 8 Louisville 62 56.4, 195 Temple 0 11.2
85% 42 Georgia Tech 38 44.2, 208 Samford 6 3.4
85% 19 California - Los Angel 26 50.7, 144 Rice 16 16.2
85% 13 Nebraska 56 44.0, 127 Nicholls State 7 9.9
84% 25 Arkansas 20 39.8, 166 Utah State 0 3.5
83% 35 Kansas 21 42.4, 164 Northeast Louisiana 19 10.0
81% 82 Southern Mississippi 45 39.9, 193 Southeast Louisiana 0 10.9
81% 80 Kansas State 45 39.4, 187 Florida Atlantic 0 11.2
81% 74 Michigan State 52 39.5, 177 Eastern Michigan 20 13.5
81% 33 Texas A&M 51 41.0, 150 Louisiana - Lafayette 7 13.0
81% 30 Wisconsin 34 40.7, 162 Western Illinois 10 7.7
79% 44 Portland State 45 34.2, 194 Northern Colorado 3 2.6
78% 17 Michigan 41 34.0, 89 Central Michigan 17 11.1
78% 14 Florida 42 37.3, 84 Central Florida 0 14.8
78% 12 Texas Christian 46 30.8, 126 California - Davis 13 2.5
77% 161 Monmouth 26 28.7, 231 Morgan State 9 3.6
77% 61 Bowling Green 48 27.1, 174 Buffalo 40 2.8
77% 54 South Florida 21 30.3, 145 Florida International 20 6.9
76% 200 Bethune - Cookman 55 38.6, 233 Savannah State 6 21.4
76% 69 Wake Forest 14 29.9, 215 Duke 13 1.0
76% 22 Tennessee 31 36.8, 73 Air Force 30 18.2
75% 143 Hampton 46 27.6, 207 Howard 7 6.9
75% 58 Utah 45 29.0, 154 Northern Arizona 7 6.4
75% 6 Auburn 34 29.6, 198 Mississippi State 0 4.1
75% 2 Virginia Tech 35 27.2, 98 North Carolina 10 6.3
74% 103 Memphis 33 34.1, 170 Tennessee - Chattanoog 14 16.2
74% 11 Florida State 24 24.8, 70 Troy State 17 3.7
73% 39 Maryland 24 22.1, 136 Middle Tennessee State 10 2.8
73% 31 Oklahoma 37 30.9, 93 Washington 20 14.9
72% 20 Iowa 20 26.9, 107 Syracuse 13 10.2
71% 105 Baylor 47 27.7, 158 Northwestern State 10 11.5
71% 94 Houston 45 32.3, 133 Tulane 7 18.8
71% 59 Purdue 38 30.4, 132 Miami - Ohio 31 12.9
71% 41 Rutgers 33 33.1, 85 Illinois 0 19.2
71% 7 Louisiana State 45 21.8, 40 Arizona 3 5.1
70% 79 Washington State 56 34.2, 124 Idaho 10 20.7
70% 4 Oregon 31 33.9, 48 Fresno State 24 20.9
69% 67 Alabama - Birmingham 17 31.3, 111 East Carolina 12 19.0
68% 204 Gardner - Webb 30 26.7, 232 Tennessee Tech 26 12.1
68% 203 Wagner 7 23.3, 230 Iona 3 9.5
68% 51 Arizona State 52 36.5, 88 Nevada - Reno 21 25.3
67% 46 Oklahoma State 35 25.2, 112 Arkansas State 7 12.8
67% 37 Iowa State 16 36.2, 66 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 24.9
67% 29 Alabama 13 22.7, 63 Vanderbilt 10 11.3
66% 9 Georgia 18 28.1, 50 South Carolina 0 16.8
65% 160 Delaware State 63 25.6, 188 Saint Francis - Pennsy 28 15.3
64% 113 California Poly 17 24.8, 179 Weber State 0 15.7
64% 49 California 42 29.1, 83 Minnesota 17 18.9
64% 15 Texas Tech 38 32.4, 53 Texas - El Paso 35 24.0
64% 10 Pittsburgh 33 22.2, 56 Cincinnati 15 12.0
63% 121 Montana 36 25.5, 148 South Dakota State 7 16.9
63% 62 Missouri 34 28.3, 77 Mississippi 7 20.8
62% 65 Indiana 24 31.3, 119 Ball State 23 25.2
62% 21 Notre Dame 41 25.3, 24 Penn State 17 18.0
61% 131 Army 17 9.7, 206 Kent State 14 -0.1
61% 106 Kentucky 41 30.4, 108 Texas State - San Marc 7 25.5
60% 184 Eastern Illinois 31 34.6, 180 Indiana State 21 30.8
60% 169 Duquesne 27 28.9, 196 Robert Morris 7 24.5
60% 81 Colorado State 14 17.7, 109 Colorado 10 12.3
59% 211 Norfolk State 32 31.6, 205 Virginia Military 19 28.6
59% 32 Boise State 42 30.4, 28 Oregon State 14 26.6
58% 186 Alabama A&M 30 32.1, 183 Grambling 27 29.5
56% 185 Georgetown 7 10.3, 175 Stony Brook 0 7.7
55% 178 Southern 31 19.8, 181 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 17.4
55% 128 Youngstown State 34 17.5, 117 Maine 14 15.1
54% 141 Towson 24 14.3, 172 Elon 17 12.4
54% 125 Lafayette 31 23.3, 153 Bucknell 0 21.7
53% 68 Virginia 13 24.4, 52 Wyoming 12 23.4
53% 64 Brigham Young 49 21.1, 47 Tulsa 24 20.0
51% 223 Tennessee State 25 19.7, 214 Murray State 15 19.3
50% 26 Boston College 34 24.9, 18 Clemson 33 24.8
48% 129 San Jose State 35 30.6, 104 Stanford 34 31.4
46% 71 Navy 21 20.1, 43 Massachusetts 20 21.5
45% 146 North Texas 24 15.8, 115 Southern Methodist 6 17.6
44% 123 Marshall 54 18.4, 92 Hofstra 31 21.0
42% 235 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 42 6.2, 213 Alcorn State 14 10.0
41% 222 Texas Southern 10 17.1, 221 Alabama State 9 21.1
40% 217 Marist 28 17.7, 190 Sacred Heart 19 22.1
40% 152 New Mexico 34 13.7, 149 New Mexico State 28 19.0
38% 99 Appalachian State 21 19.1, 38 James Madison 10 25.4
37% 156 Lehigh 31 21.4, 140 Villanova 28 29.2
37% 155 Northeastern 24 18.2, 130 Holy Cross 14 27.0
36% 201 Eastern Kentucky 26 15.6, 142 Western Kentucky 21 25.5
33% 86 Akron 20 14.8, 36 North Carolina State 17 26.2
33% 45 New Hampshire 34 14.2, 23 Northwestern 17 28.6
33% 5 Ohio State 24 19.9, 1 Texas 7 30.9
32% 209 Charleston Southern 38 9.2, 171 The Citadel 35 23.6
31% 134 Western Michigan 31 36.2, 55 Toledo 10 46.3
28% 191 Coastal Carolina 41 19.0, 138 Wofford 38 34.1
28% 139 Central Connecticut 17 18.7, 95 Georgia Southern 13 33.5
26% 197 Fordham 9 3.4, 120 Albany 7 24.0
26% 135 Ohio 35 9.4, 60 Northern Illinois 23 28.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
21 1.11 30 1.08 30 1.17 13 1.19 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 94 73 64.3 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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