prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 161 Monmouth 36 34.9, 239 Saint Peter's 12 0.8
91% 68 Oklahoma State 48 35.7, 201 Florida Atlantic 8 3.3
91% 45 Northwestern 14 43.9, 195 Eastern Michigan 6 8.5
91% 19 New Hampshire 62 40.9, 185 Stony Brook 7 2.1
91% 8 Virginia Tech 36 35.9, 235 Duke 0 -0.9
90% 97 Arizona 28 36.8, 200 Stephen F. Austin 10 8.4
90% 77 Illinois State 44 40.8, 181 Eastern Illinois 30 13.3
89% 66 Houston 42 45.0, 171 Grambling 22 18.7
89% 7 Georgia 34 33.1, 93 Alabama - Birmingham 0 5.6
88% 197 Samford 17 38.9, 236 Austin Peay 10 9.0
88% 129 Middle Tennessee State 44 32.1, 222 Tennessee Tech 0 5.2
88% 1 Ohio State 37 25.2, 48 Cincinnati 7 2.3
87% 140 Towson 10 33.1, 228 Liberty 3 6.1
87% 51 Richmond 58 38.8, 215 Virginia Military 7 2.8
87% 31 Rutgers 24 29.6, 113 Ohio 7 7.6
87% 29 Alabama 41 29.6, 139 Northeast Louisiana 7 3.1
87% 11 West Virginia 45 27.9, 55 Maryland 24 7.3
87% 3 Louisville 31 36.4, 37 Miami - Florida 7 13.5
86% 35 Texas A&M 28 32.2, 134 Army 24 11.8
85% 148 Jacksonville State 38 29.4, 225 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 8.3
85% 15 Iowa 27 37.3, 69 Iowa State 17 16.7
85% 6 Texas 52 39.4, 102 Rice 7 13.5
84% 153 New Mexico State 48 31.8, 216 Texas Southern 14 12.7
84% 128 Hampton 48 34.0, 208 North Carolina A&T 14 8.9
84% 76 Brown 34 27.5, 174 Georgetown 21 4.4
84% 59 Harvard 31 36.6, 136 Holy Cross 14 16.5
84% 40 Utah 48 29.3, 141 Utah State 0 10.6
83% 202 Robert Morris 35 33.2, 237 Butler 14 9.4
83% 157 Idaho 27 38.2, 213 Idaho State 24 20.9
83% 119 Northern Iowa 27 28.5, 186 South Dakota State 17 8.9
83% 57 Massachusetts 31 29.3, 154 Villanova 21 12.5
82% 86 Northern Illinois 31 38.1, 175 Buffalo 13 13.9
82% 65 Purdue 38 44.5, 125 Ball State 28 29.6
82% 9 Oregon 34 36.4, 30 Oklahoma 33 19.9
81% 146 Duquesne 41 37.8, 219 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 18.2
80% 67 California Poly 17 23.3, 209 Sacramento State 10 4.8
78% 84 Tulsa 28 31.9, 133 North Texas 3 16.4
78% 62 Minnesota 62 17.4, 149 Temple 0 0.7
78% 23 South Carolina 27 34.6, 164 Wofford 20 1.8
78% 16 California 42 26.3, 49 Portland State 16 12.2
77% 83 North Carolina 45 29.1, 122 Furman 42 15.7
77% 60 Kentucky 31 32.0, 123 Mississippi 14 15.8
77% 33 Penn State 37 29.1, 94 Youngstown State 3 12.7
76% 198 Sacred Heart 27 23.1, 226 Iona 16 8.5
76% 130 Louisiana Tech 31 34.1, 163 Nicholls State 21 21.1
75% 50 Georgia Tech 35 14.5, 85 Troy State 20 5.8
74% 206 Southeast Louisiana 41 21.7, 230 Jacksonville 13 10.6
74% 36 Arizona State 21 26.3, 105 Colorado 3 17.3
73% 147 Western Kentucky 28 30.7, 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 20.0
73% 46 Wisconsin 14 24.3, 87 San Diego State 0 15.1
72% 109 Colgate 28 21.9, 138 Dartmouth 7 9.8
71% 189 Weber State 24 20.0, 214 Southern Utah 13 8.3
71% 5 Southern California 28 28.8, 12 Nebraska 10 19.8
70% 137 Georgia Southern 38 33.9, 159 Coastal Carolina 21 25.3
70% 39 Southern Mississippi 37 19.3, 47 North Carolina State 17 11.9
69% 158 Western Carolina 20 18.6, 194 Eastern Kentucky 17 7.5
69% 111 North Dakota State 23 20.9, 135 Northeastern 10 11.1
68% 155 Southern Methodist 45 21.9, 172 Sam Houston State 14 13.7
68% 54 Kansas State 23 36.8, 64 Marshall 7 29.0
68% 26 Boston College 30 32.8, 34 Brigham Young 23 24.8
67% 44 Missouri 27 26.6, 103 New Mexico 17 20.4
67% 18 Washington State 17 29.2, 42 Baylor 15 20.9
67% 4 Florida 21 24.2, 21 Tennessee 20 18.2
65% 75 Princeton 14 26.8, 132 Lehigh 10 20.2
65% 63 Navy 37 32.7, 114 Stanford 9 27.6
63% 204 Florida A&M 31 28.1, 232 Howard 23 22.1
63% 162 Columbia 37 17.0, 165 Fordham 7 12.3
63% 78 Hawaii 42 29.4, 71 Nevada - Las Vegas 13 24.8
63% 20 Boise State 17 23.9, 53 Wyoming 10 19.6
62% 218 Tennessee State 31 21.9, 229 Jackson State 30 17.1
61% 24 Texas Christian 12 29.6, 22 Texas Tech 3 25.6
60% 104 East Carolina 35 24.5, 100 Memphis 20 21.6
59% 72 South Florida 24 20.5, 106 Central Florida 17 18.8
54% 95 Central Michigan 24 27.6, 73 Akron 21 26.7
51% 90 Pennsylvania 21 12.5, 115 Lafayette 11 12.1
50% 217 Tennessee - Martin 35 22.3, 199 Gardner - Webb 9 22.2
47% 25 Clemson 27 28.4, 32 Florida State 20 29.0
45% 110 Toledo 37 28.3, 81 Kansas 31 29.7
43% 210 Mississippi Valley Sta 23 17.9, 188 Alabama A&M 20 19.5
41% 117 Nevada - Reno 28 25.0, 82 Colorado State 10 26.9
41% 13 Auburn 7 16.2, 2 Louisiana State 3 20.7
40% 108 Syracuse 31 15.9, 118 Illinois 21 18.2
40% 38 Arkansas 21 14.4, 58 Vanderbilt 19 16.4
39% 151 Bethune - Cookman 45 23.2, 156 South Carolina State 21 26.7
39% 126 Bowling Green 33 31.6, 124 Florida International 28 37.2
37% 91 Washington 21 22.5, 41 Fresno State 20 26.8
34% 227 Alabama State 31 11.2, 203 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 16.8
34% 92 Western Michigan 17 18.1, 74 Virginia 10 24.7
33% 192 Tulane 32 3.5, 176 Mississippi State 29 11.3
31% 14 Michigan 47 20.5, 10 Notre Dame 21 28.8
30% 205 Wagner 38 13.3, 191 Marist 7 21.0
30% 182 Northwestern State 23 29.9, 116 Delaware State 3 39.5
30% 142 San Diego 43 17.6, 101 Yale 17 31.6
23% 187 Bucknell 20 13.5, 89 Cornell 5 32.3
22% 212 Northern Colorado 14 8.4, 168 Texas State - San Marc 13 23.6
21% 234 Valparaiso 42 11.1, 220 Morehead State 35 30.0
21% 221 Murray State 59 24.0, 183 Indiana State 40 38.4
21% 166 Albany 17 4.2, 96 Delaware 10 22.9
21% 160 Kent State 16 7.8, 99 Miami - Ohio 14 25.1
21% 145 Maine 20 18.9, 98 William & Mary 17 34.9
21% 120 Southern Illinois 35 15.5, 52 Indiana 28 33.2
19% 144 California - Davis 45 10.6, 79 Montana State 0 29.0
15% 233 Prairie View 26 13.5, 167 Southern 23 33.6
15% 80 Michigan State 38 17.4, 17 Pittsburgh 23 36.8
13% 150 Wake Forest 24 13.6, 27 Connecticut 13 46.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.72 28 1.04 27 0.83 33 1.03 7 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 76 78.8 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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