prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 26 Alabama 30 25.0, 202 Duke 14 -1.1
92% 25 Brigham Young 47 36.1, 147 San Diego State 17 4.9
92% 17 Boise State 55 44.2, 157 Louisiana Tech 14 2.7
92% 1 Ohio State 35 43.4, 86 Bowling Green 7 7.9
91% 88 Northern Iowa 38 38.9, 206 Southwest Missouri Sta 7 9.9
91% 24 Notre Dame 31 34.4, 123 Stanford 10 6.8
90% 114 Army 62 37.4, 215 Virginia Military 7 10.6
89% 182 Charleston Southern 38 50.0, 239 Savannah State 13 14.2
89% 125 Columbia 24 35.4, 228 Iona 0 5.5
89% 117 Youngstown State 55 42.0, 218 Indiana State 17 15.8
89% 110 San Diego 56 46.5, 235 Butler 3 5.5
88% 129 Jacksonville State 49 28.4, 222 Murray State 17 4.2
88% 39 Massachusetts 48 30.8, 130 William & Mary 7 9.3
88% 6 Louisville 44 33.0, 109 Middle Tennessee State 17 5.9
88% 2 Southern California 26 30.8, 51 Washington 20 6.8
87% 160 Central Connecticut 62 37.3, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 14.5
87% 80 Southern Illinois 31 39.0, 162 Western Illinois 24 17.2
87% 15 West Virginia 42 31.6, 128 Mississippi State 14 9.8
86% 27 California - Los Angel 27 25.9, 97 Arizona 7 6.9
86% 8 Michigan 31 37.1, 58 Michigan State 13 15.8
85% 19 Iowa 47 33.2, 63 Purdue 17 15.1
84% 187 Morgan State 32 31.8, 236 North Carolina A&T 0 14.6
84% 65 Montana 33 38.6, 171 Eastern Washington 17 21.1
82% 53 Harvard 33 36.3, 145 Cornell 23 16.1
82% 34 Wisconsin 41 22.3, 99 Northwestern 9 6.3
82% 3 Clemson 27 33.4, 64 Wake Forest 17 15.2
81% 49 Colorado State 28 25.8, 115 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 8.7
80% 161 Nicholls State 14 29.6, 212 Southeast Louisiana 10 15.8
80% 73 James Madison 35 29.8, 153 Rhode Island 23 9.8
78% 188 Davidson 38 26.6, 226 Jacksonville 3 12.7
78% 83 Kent State 28 21.0, 191 Temple 17 7.3
78% 43 Miami - Florida 27 25.8, 92 North Carolina 7 12.1
77% 32 Georgia Tech 27 29.2, 79 Maryland 23 16.6
76% 168 Eastern Illinois 21 31.2, 207 Southeast Missouri Sta 0 19.2
76% 141 Arkansas State 10 20.2, 165 Northeast Louisiana 6 8.9
76% 95 Appalachian State 56 30.0, 172 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 18.2
76% 90 Lehigh 28 28.7, 175 Georgetown 3 16.7
75% 70 Cincinnati 20 26.7, 103 Akron 14 16.7
74% 149 Wofford 28 28.3, 177 The Citadel 20 18.0
74% 124 California Poly 23 14.1, 139 California - Davis 17 7.3
73% 170 Elon 37 23.7, 203 Western Carolina 19 14.5
71% 163 Monmouth 24 26.5, 190 Sacred Heart 0 18.1
70% 71 Alabama - Birmingham 35 22.4, 104 Memphis 29 13.4
70% 55 Princeton 27 19.1, 116 Colgate 26 11.8
70% 10 Nebraska 28 38.2, 54 Iowa State 14 30.0
69% 36 Hawaii 41 31.2, 56 Nevada - Reno 34 22.1
69% 33 New Hampshire 27 34.8, 52 Richmond 17 27.0
67% 78 East Carolina 31 20.3, 87 Virginia 21 14.2
67% 20 Pittsburgh 21 29.8, 61 Syracuse 11 23.6
65% 167 Grambling 28 26.2, 219 Mississippi Valley Sta 25 20.5
64% 181 Tennessee - Martin 35 23.6, 223 Tennessee Tech 16 18.9
64% 67 Kansas State 31 20.7, 59 Oklahoma State 27 16.0
64% 11 California 45 30.3, 16 Oregon 24 24.3
63% 193 Alabama A&M 28 30.5, 195 Southern 21 26.4
63% 4 Florida 23 22.9, 7 Louisiana State 10 17.6
62% 196 South Carolina State 47 28.0, 194 Norfolk State 10 24.4
62% 136 Holy Cross 35 24.6, 134 Brown 30 20.5
62% 113 Illinois State 28 38.9, 156 Western Kentucky 27 34.9
62% 50 Tulsa 20 23.8, 40 Southern Mississippi 6 20.3
60% 217 Jackson State 19 25.7, 224 Alabama State 13 23.3
60% 120 Pennsylvania 34 19.4, 152 Bucknell 24 17.1
60% 98 North Dakota State 34 19.1, 143 Georgia Southern 14 16.5
60% 76 Northern Illinois 28 25.1, 107 Miami - Ohio 25 22.4
56% 5 Texas 28 26.4, 9 Oklahoma 10 25.0
55% 135 Ball State 55 27.3, 159 Buffalo 25 26.2
54% 154 North Texas 25 17.5, 144 Florida International 22 16.8
54% 150 Duquesne 20 21.0, 176 Fordham 17 20.2
54% 69 South Florida 38 17.5, 47 Connecticut 16 16.7
54% 35 Texas A&M 21 29.0, 74 Kansas 18 28.2
53% 62 Baylor 34 13.4, 89 Colorado 31 13.0
53% 46 Utah 20 14.2, 29 Texas Christian 7 13.7
53% 31 Navy 24 27.5, 57 Air Force 17 26.9
51% 197 McNeese State 30 23.0, 183 Southern Utah 27 22.7
50% 169 Delaware State 33 21.9, 189 Bethune - Cookman 31 21.9
50% 108 Texas - El Paso 24 35.1, 84 Southern Methodist 21 35.2
49% 41 South Carolina 24 23.4, 68 Kentucky 17 23.6
47% 209 Marist 41 20.8, 221 La Salle 13 21.5
47% 118 Yale 26 16.9, 140 Dartmouth 14 17.5
46% 21 Penn State 28 22.7, 30 Minnesota 27 23.5
43% 148 Northeastern 27 25.2, 112 Delaware 24 26.9
42% 81 Wyoming 14 17.4, 96 New Mexico 10 18.9
41% 213 Eastern Kentucky 31 11.4, 220 Samford 12 13.0
41% 105 Mississippi 17 19.2, 77 Vanderbilt 10 21.1
40% 180 Stephen F. Austin 24 20.2, 186 Texas State - San Marc 13 22.9
39% 205 Sacramento State 24 16.9, 166 Weber State 21 19.9
39% 164 Idaho 28 27.9, 137 New Mexico State 20 31.5
39% 38 Washington State 13 24.2, 45 Oregon State 6 27.6
38% 178 Stony Brook 33 14.1, 138 Albany 21 17.6
38% 158 Tulane 38 27.0, 119 Rice 24 31.1
38% 131 Villanova 20 27.0, 133 Hofstra 16 31.4
37% 18 Tennessee 51 12.6, 14 Georgia 33 16.5
36% 211 Idaho State 41 28.1, 204 Northern Colorado 13 33.6
36% 121 Ohio 27 16.1, 72 Western Michigan 20 20.5
35% 151 Montana State 14 14.9, 101 Portland State 0 20.0
33% 102 Central Florida 23 21.5, 93 Marshall 22 28.2
33% 91 Indiana 34 17.9, 82 Illinois 32 24.2
31% 66 North Carolina State 24 17.7, 23 Florida State 20 25.0
30% 210 Robert Morris 14 8.6, 198 Wagner 10 14.5
28% 106 Central Michigan 42 27.0, 85 Toledo 20 36.8
27% 231 Alcorn State 17 11.6, 227 Prairie View 14 20.9
27% 155 Coastal Carolina 29 28.8, 94 Furman 27 37.6
27% 132 Maine 28 9.8, 111 Towson 7 18.1
26% 232 Morehead State 22 18.9, 225 Dayton 15 29.2
25% 200 Sam Houston State 30 21.7, 174 Northwestern State 20 31.8
19% 37 Arkansas 27 10.2, 13 Auburn 10 25.0
17% 42 Missouri 38 18.5, 12 Texas Tech 21 36.2
14% 192 Utah State 13 10.8, 75 Fresno State 12 31.1
14% 142 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 16.5, 60 Houston 28 36.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
22 1.08 33 0.85 21 0.95 25 0.98 7 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 74 76.7 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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