prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 21 Arkansas 63 51.3, 219 Southeast Missouri Sta 7 1.6
92% 7 Clemson 63 51.0, 189 Temple 9 7.0
91% 171 Delaware State 37 36.7, 236 North Carolina A&T 21 5.6
91% 153 Duquesne 35 38.1, 237 Saint Peter's 21 9.6
91% 98 San Diego 68 53.1, 233 Valparaiso 7 9.8
91% 87 North Dakota State 45 35.3, 211 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 4.8
91% 84 Northern Iowa 34 44.6, 221 Indiana State 14 17.7
90% 135 Hampton 42 43.2, 228 Norfolk State 13 12.1
88% 74 Bowling Green 24 37.2, 179 Eastern Michigan 21 13.2
88% 39 Miami - Florida 35 29.1, 134 Florida International 0 5.8
88% 2 Texas 63 37.3, 61 Baylor 31 9.4
87% 181 Drake 29 27.8, 238 Butler 0 7.4
87% 12 Boise State 40 43.8, 162 New Mexico State 28 16.2
86% 5 Louisiana State 49 39.7, 69 Kentucky 0 15.7
85% 144 Coastal Carolina 31 36.9, 227 Virginia Military 27 18.5
85% 76 Montana 24 39.1, 169 Northern Arizona 21 19.3
85% 19 West Virginia 41 34.0, 86 Syracuse 17 14.2
84% 115 Furman 23 35.0, 182 The Citadel 17 17.0
84% 23 Massachusetts 35 30.7, 140 Towson 0 10.0
84% 4 Southern California 28 30.6, 47 Arizona State 21 12.1
83% 121 Portland State 34 33.3, 197 Idaho State 13 13.4
83% 93 San Jose State 21 29.6, 161 Utah State 14 13.3
83% 37 Florida State 51 26.8, 146 Duke 24 9.3
81% 20 Louisville 23 28.4, 63 Cincinnati 17 11.7
80% 1 Ohio State 38 29.7, 50 Michigan State 7 15.2
79% 125 Troy State 24 22.5, 170 Northeast Louisiana 19 9.8
79% 120 Montana State 21 24.0, 196 Sacramento State 18 11.2
79% 60 Harvard 24 31.4, 129 Lafayette 7 16.8
79% 52 Richmond 31 28.3, 152 Rhode Island 6 13.9
79% 45 Alabama 26 24.9, 90 Mississippi 23 12.8
79% 16 Oklahoma 34 38.5, 56 Iowa State 9 22.2
78% 114 Texas - El Paso 34 41.6, 158 Tulane 20 29.7
78% 103 Appalachian State 14 31.2, 149 Wofford 7 19.3
78% 54 Princeton 17 37.3, 132 Brown 3 20.4
77% 165 Stony Brook 30 40.3, 231 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 24.3
77% 70 Central Michigan 18 39.3, 127 Ball State 7 26.1
77% 51 Southern Mississippi 31 27.7, 92 Houston 27 15.5
76% 13 Pittsburgh 52 27.3, 68 Central Florida 7 16.4
75% 222 Alcorn State 44 23.9, 232 Texas Southern 23 14.6
75% 155 Monmouth 28 17.3, 206 Wagner 7 8.3
75% 136 Georgia Southern 28 28.1, 166 Elon 21 16.9
74% 156 South Carolina State 28 33.3, 209 Florida A&M 21 23.2
73% 177 Fordham 13 21.6, 203 Marist 9 12.3
72% 188 Morgan State 18 21.6, 223 Howard 12 13.5
72% 10 Nebraska 21 27.7, 57 Kansas State 3 19.0
70% 178 Davidson 27 22.2, 220 Morehead State 24 14.0
70% 126 Delaware 10 30.1, 148 Hofstra 6 22.1
70% 105 Maine 20 18.2, 116 Villanova 7 11.8
70% 89 Southern Methodist 31 29.3, 109 Marshall 21 21.4
70% 42 South Florida 37 27.2, 108 North Carolina 20 19.6
69% 117 Mississippi State 35 19.3, 138 Jacksonville State 3 10.9
68% 210 Tennessee State 30 23.3, 217 Tennessee Tech 20 16.9
68% 96 Kent State 40 24.7, 106 Toledo 14 18.0
67% 191 Florida Atlantic 32 27.7, 201 Southern Utah 7 21.7
67% 173 Eastern Washington 34 25.8, 214 Northern Colorado 0 18.7
67% 25 Oregon 30 31.4, 34 California - Los Angel 20 24.0
66% 6 California 21 26.7, 32 Washington State 3 20.8
65% 110 Pennsylvania 16 21.5, 122 Columbia 0 16.2
64% 164 Albany 24 21.5, 204 Sacred Heart 13 16.9
64% 107 Youngstown State 35 27.1, 159 Western Illinois 28 22.0
64% 17 Boston College 22 20.6, 18 Virginia Tech 3 15.9
63% 160 Western Kentucky 17 27.2, 194 Southwest Missouri Sta 14 23.2
63% 65 Connecticut 21 23.3, 75 Army 7 18.1
63% 40 Tulsa 31 24.8, 71 East Carolina 10 20.7
63% 33 Wisconsin 48 24.3, 30 Minnesota 12 19.9
62% 124 Miami - Ohio 38 23.6, 172 Buffalo 31 19.4
61% 185 Sam Houston State 37 23.8, 174 Nicholls State 7 21.0
61% 154 William & Mary 14 18.1, 193 Liberty 13 14.6
61% 38 Texas A&M 25 27.7, 29 Missouri 19 24.7
60% 48 Hawaii 68 32.1, 77 Fresno State 37 30.0
59% 97 Western Michigan 16 28.5, 82 Northern Illinois 14 26.6
57% 73 Purdue 31 28.2, 118 Northwestern 10 26.6
56% 216 Alabama State 10 15.3, 230 Prairie View 7 14.3
55% 175 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 24.1, 199 Western Carolina 14 23.1
50% 157 Bucknell 17 16.9, 176 Georgetown 7 16.9
50% 104 Yale 26 23.0, 83 Lehigh 20 23.0
50% 102 New Mexico 39 13.6, 123 Nevada - Las Vegas 36 13.6
50% 62 Air Force 24 21.8, 43 Colorado State 21 21.7
46% 137 Cornell 38 24.3, 112 Colgate 14 25.1
44% 131 Holy Cross 24 14.0, 145 Dartmouth 21 15.1
43% 234 Jacksonville 28 19.7, 226 Dayton 21 21.1
42% 119 Illinois State 37 26.7, 85 Southern Illinois 10 28.5
41% 215 Jackson State 31 23.5, 198 Southern 28 25.3
40% 213 Samford 33 19.8, 218 Murray State 7 22.4
40% 187 Eastern Illinois 28 16.1, 190 Eastern Kentucky 21 18.6
40% 8 Michigan 17 19.0, 15 Penn State 10 21.2
38% 94 Arizona 20 10.5, 100 Stanford 7 13.5
37% 212 Southeast Louisiana 31 20.1, 186 Northwestern State 24 24.2
37% 205 Texas State - San Marc 27 17.9, 200 McNeese State 17 21.9
37% 81 Maryland 28 18.3, 78 Virginia 26 22.7
36% 208 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 33 18.5, 184 Grambling 28 23.1
36% 143 Rice 34 19.2, 88 Alabama - Birmingham 33 24.0
36% 55 Oklahoma State 42 24.1, 59 Kansas 32 28.9
35% 168 Idaho 24 23.6, 163 Louisiana Tech 14 30.0
35% 113 Ohio 20 15.6, 101 Illinois 17 21.3
33% 44 Rutgers 34 17.9, 35 Navy 0 24.2
32% 64 Wake Forest 25 16.0, 53 North Carolina State 23 22.2
31% 72 Wyoming 31 13.6, 27 Utah 15 21.1
30% 26 Auburn 27 13.4, 3 Florida 17 20.5
29% 67 Colorado 30 18.1, 24 Texas Tech 6 26.6
28% 202 Robert Morris 23 14.5, 147 Central Connecticut 17 22.9
28% 58 Oregon State 27 16.4, 41 Washington 17 24.8
23% 142 Arkansas State 26 12.9, 95 Memphis 23 24.5
22% 91 Indiana 31 17.2, 11 Iowa 28 30.8
20% 99 James Madison 42 18.6, 31 New Hampshire 23 37.5
19% 80 Vanderbilt 24 12.2, 14 Georgia 22 31.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.04 36 0.91 30 1.02 18 1.12 8 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 77 76.0 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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