prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 59 San Diego 44 51.2, 230 Morehead State 21 4.4
92% 9 Boston College 41 49.4, 188 Buffalo 0 3.0
91% 4 Michigan 17 39.3, 127 Northwestern 3 4.4
90% 131 Albany 34 23.2, 209 Wagner 0 2.6
90% 63 North Dakota State 31 32.1, 213 Southern Utah 7 6.4
89% 41 Alabama 38 33.6, 152 Florida International 3 8.0
89% 28 Arkansas 44 38.8, 163 Northeast Louisiana 10 12.3
88% 182 Bethune - Cookman 70 36.2, 236 North Carolina A&T 7 9.8
88% 145 Western Kentucky 41 44.0, 218 Indiana State 3 21.0
87% 48 Hawaii 68 42.6, 151 Idaho 10 20.5
87% 1 Ohio State 44 29.8, 45 Minnesota 0 5.9
86% 126 Wofford 35 36.2, 205 Western Carolina 7 14.5
86% 13 Auburn 23 28.2, 116 Mississippi 17 9.1
85% 194 Davidson 48 39.7, 238 Valparaiso 14 20.3
85% 18 Iowa 24 35.8, 90 Northern Illinois 14 14.5
84% 102 Montana 23 43.5, 186 Idaho State 10 23.2
84% 19 Rutgers 24 22.8, 54 Connecticut 13 7.6
84% 15 Wisconsin 30 26.9, 97 Illinois 24 5.4
83% 211 Marist 35 28.6, 235 Saint Peter's 18 10.9
83% 82 Western Michigan 18 30.3, 160 Eastern Michigan 15 13.7
83% 47 Utah 45 32.8, 140 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 13.1
83% 40 Tulsa 30 33.3, 109 Texas - El Paso 20 15.2
82% 73 Nevada - Reno 48 35.4, 150 New Mexico State 21 17.6
80% 187 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 43 26.9, 225 Jackson State 40 12.9
80% 29 Oregon 55 29.5, 76 Portland State 12 13.9
80% 10 Brigham Young 33 37.0, 85 Air Force 14 22.6
79% 193 Gardner - Webb 35 34.5, 226 Virginia Military 31 20.4
79% 139 Montana State 24 30.6, 185 Weber State 18 15.7
79% 61 New Hampshire 10 40.8, 143 Hofstra 6 24.5
78% 155 Coastal Carolina 28 29.5, 195 Liberty 26 15.9
78% 137 Southern Illinois 27 25.9, 203 Southwest Missouri Sta 17 13.8
78% 99 Yale 21 25.5, 156 Columbia 3 11.7
76% 121 San Jose State 44 37.7, 159 Louisiana Tech 10 25.9
75% 75 Houston 51 28.7, 110 Central Florida 31 18.7
75% 49 Cincinnati 17 24.3, 83 Syracuse 3 15.1
75% 24 Penn State 12 27.7, 96 Purdue 0 17.2
74% 103 Appalachian State 40 26.4, 134 Furman 7 17.3
73% 227 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 17.6, 229 Prairie View 10 10.1
72% 132 Troy State 14 22.0, 161 North Texas 6 13.8
72% 36 Massachusetts 7 26.2, 111 Northeastern 0 16.9
72% 7 Florida 21 24.9, 27 Georgia 14 16.7
71% 207 Howard 13 26.9, 222 Norfolk State 10 18.0
71% 23 Texas Christian 26 21.8, 37 Wyoming 3 14.5
70% 50 Harvard 28 24.8, 124 Dartmouth 0 16.1
70% 2 Texas 35 29.5, 26 Texas Tech 31 21.5
69% 165 Bucknell 13 20.1, 180 Fordham 3 13.5
68% 208 Sacramento State 14 21.0, 221 Northern Colorado 9 14.8
68% 177 Stephen F. Austin 35 27.7, 217 Southeast Louisiana 10 20.9
67% 198 Tennessee State 29 21.8, 210 Samford 7 16.0
67% 197 Drake 21 17.2, 223 Dayton 9 12.1
67% 169 Northwestern State 19 21.9, 181 Texas State - San Marc 10 15.4
67% 101 Marshall 41 29.8, 107 Memphis 27 23.8
67% 56 Wake Forest 24 24.3, 125 North Carolina 17 17.9
65% 178 Jacksonville State 17 24.5, 220 Tennessee Tech 10 19.1
65% 57 Kansas State 31 26.1, 64 Iowa State 10 19.8
65% 20 Notre Dame 38 24.5, 51 Navy 14 19.1
63% 70 Virginia 14 20.1, 68 North Carolina State 7 16.2
63% 30 Texas A&M 31 32.2, 65 Baylor 21 28.2
62% 204 Florida A&M 24 22.8, 202 Morgan State 23 18.8
62% 201 Alabama A&M 21 23.0, 216 Alabama State 13 19.2
62% 184 Tennessee - Martin 15 19.3, 175 Eastern Illinois 9 15.8
62% 162 Monmouth 19 19.3, 157 Central Connecticut 13 16.0
61% 44 Georgia Tech 30 19.3, 39 Miami - Florida 23 16.4
61% 25 Arizona State 26 25.9, 52 Washington 23 22.6
60% 72 Vanderbilt 45 18.9, 123 Duke 28 16.2
60% 8 Virginia Tech 24 21.9, 5 Clemson 7 19.1
59% 164 Northern Arizona 44 23.0, 189 Eastern Washington 36 21.0
59% 153 South Dakota State 22 27.4, 146 California - Davis 21 25.2
56% 78 Lehigh 28 25.3, 112 Holy Cross 14 23.8
56% 17 Tennessee 31 18.9, 35 South Carolina 24 17.7
55% 89 Kansas 20 20.6, 53 Colorado 15 19.5
53% 115 Middle Tennessee State 34 19.3, 148 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 18.6
52% 171 Delaware State 10 19.2, 154 South Carolina State 9 18.8
49% 119 Toledo 35 25.4, 91 Akron 20 25.6
47% 74 New Mexico 20 20.6, 98 Colorado State 19 21.3
43% 58 Maryland 27 25.6, 38 Florida State 24 27.1
42% 147 Rhode Island 3 16.3, 113 Maine 0 17.6
40% 93 Brown 30 18.2, 100 Pennsylvania 27 20.9
40% 16 Oklahoma 26 23.3, 22 Missouri 10 25.9
38% 130 Lafayette 27 17.8, 129 Colgate 10 22.3
38% 94 Indiana 46 32.4, 42 Michigan State 21 36.9
37% 135 Tulane 42 23.8, 80 Army 28 27.8
37% 81 Ohio 17 12.9, 88 Kent State 7 17.3
37% 60 James Madison 27 15.1, 71 Richmond 10 18.9
36% 179 Elon 20 18.3, 176 Tennessee - Chattanoog 17 23.4
36% 144 Villanova 35 19.6, 136 William & Mary 31 25.3
36% 55 Oklahoma State 41 25.3, 21 Nebraska 29 30.6
36% 34 Washington State 37 16.7, 33 California - Los Angel 15 21.5
35% 86 Kentucky 34 17.6, 77 Mississippi State 31 23.5
35% 66 East Carolina 20 19.2, 67 Southern Mississippi 17 24.7
33% 224 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 19.3, 215 Murray State 17 26.0
33% 183 The Citadel 24 21.6, 142 Georgia Southern 21 27.8
31% 138 Ball State 20 24.4, 118 Miami - Ohio 17 32.3
29% 43 Oregon State 33 18.2, 6 Southern California 31 26.7
28% 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 24.6, 200 Sacred Heart 14 33.1
27% 190 McNeese State 31 18.6, 174 Sam Houston State 18 27.4
27% 167 Florida Atlantic 29 12.0, 117 Arkansas State 0 19.8
26% 120 Cornell 14 13.3, 46 Princeton 7 22.4
25% 219 Charleston Southern 24 14.2, 170 Georgetown 10 23.6
25% 149 California Poly 16 8.7, 108 San Diego State 14 18.7
24% 128 Towson 49 13.1, 84 Delaware 35 23.9
24% 122 Youngstown State 27 19.2, 87 Illinois State 13 29.6
23% 196 Robert Morris 21 13.3, 173 Stony Brook 6 23.6
20% 192 Temple 28 15.2, 105 Bowling Green 14 29.3
19% 231 Texas Southern 33 20.2, 172 Grambling 28 35.8
18% 206 Iona 17 7.2, 158 Duquesne 13 23.0
17% 166 Western Illinois 24 16.0, 95 Northern Iowa 13 33.7
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 1.15 38 0.90 32 0.87 23 1.02 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 73 77.0 0.95
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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