prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 104 San Diego 38 42.5, 232 Jacksonville 21 11.1
91% 150 Coastal Carolina 66 46.2, 238 Savannah State 6 6.9
91% 18 Auburn 27 35.6, 161 Arkansas State 0 3.0
91% 1 Ohio State 17 34.7, 83 Illinois 10 7.4
90% 163 Monmouth 54 34.7, 229 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 9.3
90% 69 Appalachian State 42 33.9, 179 The Citadel 13 8.0
90% 16 Michigan 34 37.9, 115 Ball State 26 9.2
89% 168 Duquesne 38 34.7, 236 La Salle 0 11.9
89% 145 Western Illinois 46 42.7, 225 Indiana State 41 17.0
89% 8 Southern California 42 35.8, 123 Stanford 0 12.0
88% 33 Hawaii 63 37.8, 169 Utah State 10 12.4
87% 155 South Carolina State 28 23.5, 217 Howard 10 3.5
87% 17 Notre Dame 45 41.6, 125 North Carolina 26 14.7
86% 140 Montana State 13 29.1, 211 Northern Colorado 10 7.2
86% 3 Texas 36 40.8, 41 Oklahoma State 10 19.1
85% 108 Illinois State 38 33.4, 190 Southwest Missouri Sta 14 12.6
85% 100 Mississippi 27 30.6, 195 Northwestern State 7 7.4
85% 43 Harvard 24 31.2, 146 Columbia 7 7.8
83% 34 Texas Tech 55 40.1, 88 Baylor 21 23.0
83% 24 Boise State 45 33.7, 77 Fresno State 21 16.4
82% 201 Florida A&M 45 38.6, 239 North Carolina A&T 12 19.7
82% 64 Wyoming 27 28.5, 139 San Diego State 24 12.1
82% 21 Texas Christian 25 30.0, 127 Nevada - Las Vegas 10 13.7
81% 220 Dayton 51 35.1, 237 Valparaiso 7 18.8
81% 62 Nevada - Reno 45 36.6, 174 Idaho 7 19.1
81% 11 Oregon 34 40.5, 51 Washington 14 22.3
80% 107 Albany 16 17.0, 183 Robert Morris 6 6.7
80% 76 Central Michigan 42 30.1, 170 Temple 26 15.8
80% 44 James Madison 44 33.5, 105 Delaware 24 17.1
80% 14 California 38 31.6, 46 California - Los Angel 24 16.9
80% 13 Brigham Young 24 31.5, 90 Colorado State 3 16.6
79% 172 McNeese State 34 28.6, 216 Southeast Louisiana 13 15.6
79% 74 Lehigh 23 29.8, 141 Colgate 15 15.3
78% 194 Eastern Kentucky 51 25.2, 223 Murray State 21 13.5
78% 96 Cornell 28 20.5, 154 Dartmouth 25 6.9
78% 68 Princeton 31 22.6, 121 Pennsylvania 30 10.8
78% 56 North Dakota State 28 22.3, 148 California - Davis 24 9.6
78% 4 Florida 25 31.7, 55 Vanderbilt 19 19.0
77% 210 Southern 34 31.4, 231 Texas Southern 17 19.5
77% 196 Georgetown 24 20.3, 213 Marist 21 10.4
77% 99 Middle Tennessee State 35 23.6, 153 Florida Atlantic 14 11.2
77% 75 Ohio 16 23.3, 158 Eastern Michigan 10 13.1
76% 192 Liberty 21 22.4, 208 Western Carolina 0 13.1
76% 186 Drake 35 17.2, 203 Davidson 15 8.0
76% 114 Lafayette 31 19.4, 187 Fordham 24 8.7
76% 95 Western Michigan 27 28.0, 136 Miami - Ohio 24 17.4
76% 42 Florida State 33 24.2, 67 Virginia 0 14.1
71% 162 Central Connecticut 42 25.2, 207 Sacred Heart 14 17.7
71% 94 Youngstown State 31 24.5, 120 Southern Illinois 24 16.8
71% 93 Marshall 42 38.0, 109 Tulane 21 30.3
70% 198 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 28 22.0, 230 Prairie View 21 14.5
70% 175 Eastern Illinois 29 24.6, 193 Tennessee State 3 17.2
70% 116 Maine 30 14.4, 132 Northeastern 3 7.6
70% 106 Akron 35 29.2, 130 Bowling Green 28 21.3
69% 2 Louisiana State 28 24.8, 19 Tennessee 24 17.7
68% 180 Tennessee - Martin 28 21.5, 218 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 15.0
68% 134 Holy Cross 27 23.7, 160 Bucknell 10 16.2
68% 53 Navy 38 23.1, 126 Duke 13 15.9
67% 182 Charleston Southern 28 33.1, 197 Gardner - Webb 14 26.5
67% 124 Troy State 42 22.1, 147 Louisiana - Lafayette 28 15.5
67% 30 Nebraska 34 27.4, 38 Missouri 20 20.7
67% 5 Virginia Tech 17 18.3, 40 Miami - Florida 10 12.2
65% 199 Alabama A&M 34 26.9, 226 Jackson State 21 21.3
65% 143 Hampton 34 30.2, 151 Bethune - Cookman 17 24.4
65% 92 Southern Methodist 22 25.4, 97 Alabama - Birmingham 9 19.9
64% 128 Northern Iowa 31 21.4, 138 Western Kentucky 20 16.6
64% 101 San Jose State 31 34.0, 156 New Mexico State 21 28.6
64% 61 East Carolina 23 27.6, 118 Central Florida 10 22.5
64% 15 Louisville 44 22.3, 12 West Virginia 34 17.7
63% 189 Stony Brook 45 19.7, 219 Wagner 9 15.9
63% 176 Weber State 19 29.1, 184 Eastern Washington 14 24.0
63% 119 Montana 10 19.9, 129 California Poly 9 15.5
61% 227 Morehead State 14 21.4, 235 Butler 7 18.2
61% 65 Minnesota 63 27.8, 58 Indiana 26 24.3
61% 45 Georgia Tech 31 23.0, 71 North Carolina State 23 20.3
61% 37 Oregon State 44 26.7, 27 Arizona State 10 23.7
61% 7 Oklahoma 17 23.7, 29 Texas A&M 16 20.9
59% 60 Houston 27 27.7, 47 Tulsa 10 25.5
59% 32 Massachusetts 28 22.3, 63 New Hampshire 20 19.9
58% 80 Southern Mississippi 42 22.9, 112 Memphis 21 21.4
55% 204 Morgan State 29 19.1, 222 Norfolk State 20 18.1
52% 72 Air Force 43 21.9, 103 Army 7 21.5
51% 157 Furman 24 23.1, 167 Elon 13 22.9
49% 228 Mississippi Valley Sta 28 20.2, 206 Alcorn State 25 20.4
45% 131 Wofford 28 24.5, 152 Georgia Southern 10 25.5
45% 25 Arkansas 26 18.9, 39 South Carolina 20 20.1
44% 137 Portland State 34 26.0, 149 Northern Arizona 26 27.3
43% 214 Tennessee Tech 20 16.3, 221 Samford 14 17.6
42% 48 Kansas State 34 13.1, 57 Colorado 21 14.5
40% 82 Yale 27 24.0, 89 Brown 24 26.5
39% 171 Jacksonville State 13 17.9, 178 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 20.8
38% 59 South Florida 22 16.3, 22 Pittsburgh 12 19.9
37% 35 Wisconsin 13 12.3, 6 Penn State 3 16.9
36% 135 Villanova 31 18.0, 73 Richmond 21 22.9
35% 87 Kansas 41 24.3, 84 Iowa State 10 29.8
33% 133 Rhode Island 20 15.1, 113 Hofstra 13 21.5
32% 173 Louisiana Tech 34 18.7, 164 North Texas 31 26.8
32% 144 William & Mary 29 19.8, 117 Towson 28 27.9
28% 205 Sacramento State 22 18.7, 188 Idaho State 14 28.1
28% 122 Rice 37 24.3, 102 Texas - El Paso 31 32.8
28% 79 Kentucky 24 23.4, 20 Georgia 20 32.4
26% 185 Buffalo 41 9.5, 110 Kent State 14 19.5
25% 212 Alabama State 35 19.1, 191 Grambling 16 28.8
25% 200 Sam Houston State 21 17.0, 165 Stephen F. Austin 17 27.3
24% 209 Nicholls State 21 12.1, 181 Texas State - San Marc 19 21.9
24% 111 Purdue 17 21.1, 70 Michigan State 15 33.6
24% 52 Wake Forest 21 10.5, 10 Boston College 14 20.3
17% 85 Arizona 27 6.3, 31 Washington State 17 22.0
16% 91 Northwestern 21 8.2, 23 Iowa 7 28.0
16% 86 Mississippi State 24 7.5, 26 Alabama 16 24.4
16% 54 Maryland 13 16.9, 9 Clemson 12 35.6
13% 234 Saint Peter's 30 7.8, 202 Iona 15 28.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.83 33 1.17 34 0.97 28 0.97 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 112 83 82.0 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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