prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 19 Penn State 47 42.9, 182 Temple 0 2.3
92% 5 Virginia Tech 23 37.6, 148 Kent State 0 1.7
91% 75 Appalachian State 31 33.9, 209 Western Carolina 9 9.2
90% 17 Boston College 28 33.2, 127 Duke 7 5.3
89% 82 Lehigh 45 33.5, 184 Fordham 14 8.3
89% 45 Hawaii 61 47.5, 165 Louisiana Tech 17 20.9
88% 4 Brigham Young 55 38.2, 65 Wyoming 7 14.4
86% 180 Elon 45 30.0, 236 North Carolina A&T 0 7.9
86% 172 Jacksonville State 55 23.5, 225 Samford 7 5.7
86% 1 Louisiana State 28 29.7, 41 Alabama 14 8.8
85% 64 Nevada - Reno 42 26.1, 161 Utah State 0 4.3
84% 215 Davidson 50 27.7, 237 Butler 10 8.8
84% 136 San Diego 56 37.1, 201 Dayton 14 17.8
84% 115 Lafayette 45 29.6, 192 Georgetown 14 9.0
84% 109 Illinois State 42 43.0, 218 Indiana State 20 23.3
84% 29 Massachusetts 10 16.9, 76 Maine 9 3.6
83% 119 Wofford 55 29.6, 186 Tennessee - Chattanoog 0 12.4
83% 30 Utah 35 23.9, 104 Colorado State 22 5.7
82% 195 Texas State - San Marc 41 31.7, 232 Texas Southern 21 13.4
82% 42 Oklahoma State 66 40.4, 103 Baylor 24 23.8
81% 189 The Citadel 48 34.2, 227 Virginia Military 21 18.5
81% 78 Fresno State 23 40.7, 158 New Mexico State 18 22.5
81% 14 Clemson 20 30.5, 70 North Carolina State 14 13.9
81% 8 Florida 17 27.3, 39 South Carolina 16 12.1
81% 2 Ohio State 54 24.2, 68 Northwestern 10 9.3
80% 128 Montana 53 25.1, 204 Northern Colorado 21 11.0
80% 46 Navy 49 31.0, 163 Eastern Michigan 21 13.7
79% 143 South Dakota State 31 30.1, 212 Southern Utah 21 16.6
78% 200 Marist 24 25.2, 228 Iona 17 12.0
78% 197 Alabama State 25 24.0, 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 20 12.1
78% 135 Coastal Carolina 52 40.0, 206 Gardner - Webb 24 26.8
78% 44 South Florida 27 24.5, 81 Syracuse 10 12.5
78% 16 West Virginia 42 30.0, 56 Cincinnati 24 15.9
77% 141 Hampton 59 31.7, 205 Florida A&M 7 19.9
77% 79 North Dakota State 51 15.8, 124 California Poly 14 5.6
76% 23 Boise State 23 31.9, 93 San Jose State 20 21.1
76% 21 Michigan 34 32.4, 102 Indiana 3 20.5
75% 193 Alabama A&M 35 28.1, 214 Alcorn State 26 17.7
75% 183 Drake 47 22.8, 226 Jacksonville 28 12.5
75% 144 Portland State 13 23.5, 199 Sacramento State 7 14.3
75% 7 Oklahoma 34 30.3, 20 Texas Tech 24 20.4
74% 181 Eastern Washington 40 30.2, 203 Idaho State 6 20.2
74% 96 Akron 31 30.5, 142 Buffalo 16 19.5
72% 154 Northern Arizona 42 34.3, 175 Weber State 17 25.8
72% 72 Colorado 33 21.3, 95 Iowa State 16 14.0
72% 63 East Carolina 33 29.4, 86 Marshall 20 21.1
72% 43 Georgia Tech 7 31.3, 106 North Carolina 0 23.2
72% 26 Texas Christian 27 21.5, 77 New Mexico 21 13.8
71% 213 Tennessee State 31 26.0, 223 Southeast Missouri Sta 0 18.0
71% 156 Central Connecticut 35 23.9, 176 Stony Brook 32 16.1
71% 137 Furman 13 27.2, 159 Georgia Southern 10 18.7
70% 179 Delaware State 33 29.4, 222 Norfolk State 10 20.9
70% 177 Sam Houston State 28 26.6, 219 Southeast Louisiana 23 19.1
69% 221 Jackson State 31 24.1, 230 Prairie View 7 17.1
69% 166 Eastern Illinois 38 23.2, 211 Tennessee Tech 14 16.5
68% 59 New Hampshire 63 27.9, 125 Rhode Island 21 21.0
67% 160 South Carolina State 41 17.4, 196 Morgan State 16 12.1
67% 99 Middle Tennessee State 38 18.3, 155 Arkansas State 10 12.7
66% 67 Southern Mississippi 31 29.8, 131 Tulane 3 24.1
66% 34 Maryland 14 19.2, 37 Miami - Florida 13 13.6
64% 121 San Diego State 21 24.4, 133 Nevada - Las Vegas 7 18.9
64% 113 Delaware 28 34.7, 117 William & Mary 14 29.7
64% 50 Arizona State 47 26.7, 55 Washington State 14 21.2
63% 190 Liberty 34 17.9, 185 Charleston Southern 20 13.5
63% 92 Central Michigan 31 29.3, 90 Western Michigan 7 24.9
62% 140 Colgate 29 21.7, 132 Holy Cross 28 18.5
62% 112 Troy State 24 22.2, 164 Florida Atlantic 17 17.7
62% 88 Youngstown State 19 26.9, 145 Western Kentucky 3 22.8
62% 60 Kentucky 38 31.9, 58 Vanderbilt 26 28.5
62% 6 Southern California 35 26.9, 9 Oregon 10 22.4
61% 36 Minnesota 31 30.6, 80 Michigan State 18 26.6
60% 27 Arkansas 31 25.9, 18 Tennessee 14 22.9
60% 22 Wisconsin 24 15.8, 53 Iowa 21 13.5
59% 134 Southern Illinois 47 22.0, 116 Northern Iowa 23 20.3
59% 25 Notre Dame 39 25.2, 48 Air Force 17 22.9
59% 13 Nebraska 28 25.8, 35 Texas A&M 27 23.9
58% 57 Houston 37 25.3, 87 Southern Methodist 27 23.6
58% 51 Purdue 42 23.8, 85 Illinois 31 21.9
54% 49 Connecticut 46 18.1, 33 Pittsburgh 45 17.4
52% 24 Rutgers 28 22.6, 11 Louisville 25 22.2
47% 171 Eastern Kentucky 31 18.3, 194 Tennessee - Martin 28 18.9
46% 202 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 45 28.0, 208 Southern 20 28.9
46% 198 Robert Morris 41 16.5, 210 Sacred Heart 21 17.3
45% 178 Stephen F. Austin 16 16.6, 187 Nicholls State 13 17.6
44% 71 Princeton 34 19.7, 84 Yale 31 20.9
43% 173 McNeese State 29 19.9, 191 Northwestern State 26 21.3
40% 188 Southwest Missouri Sta 24 24.2, 162 Western Illinois 21 26.7
40% 146 Columbia 21 15.5, 100 Cornell 14 17.9
40% 38 California - Los Angel 25 24.3, 15 Oregon State 7 27.0
39% 120 Central Florida 26 22.1, 123 Memphis 24 25.7
38% 94 Pennsylvania 22 20.1, 54 Harvard 13 23.8
37% 233 Saint Francis - Pennsy 35 21.1, 216 Wagner 14 25.4
37% 153 Dartmouth 19 19.5, 98 Brown 13 24.3
31% 167 Northeast Louisiana 35 17.3, 152 Florida International 0 24.8
31% 147 Northeastern 34 13.6, 138 Hofstra 24 20.6
30% 118 Texas - El Paso 36 20.7, 97 Alabama - Birmingham 17 28.2
30% 110 Villanova 21 21.6, 40 James Madison 20 29.8
29% 169 North Texas 16 19.6, 149 Louisiana - Lafayette 7 27.9
27% 105 Toledo 17 23.6, 73 Northern Illinois 13 33.2
25% 130 Towson 31 15.2, 89 Richmond 7 24.9
25% 61 Arizona 24 15.9, 12 California 20 25.8
24% 150 Monmouth 19 7.9, 129 Albany 0 16.9
23% 235 La Salle 37 11.0, 231 Saint Peter's 28 22.5
23% 52 Kansas State 45 17.0, 3 Texas 42 29.2
23% 47 Wake Forest 30 14.8, 28 Florida State 0 25.4
22% 234 Austin Peay 23 13.0, 220 Morehead State 21 27.0
22% 108 Rice 41 17.6, 66 Tulsa 38 29.9
22% 31 Georgia 37 11.5, 10 Auburn 15 23.3
20% 217 Howard 28 15.9, 170 Bethune - Cookman 0 31.6
20% 126 Stanford 20 10.1, 69 Washington 3 23.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.94 28 1.06 40 0.90 23 1.14 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 110 80 79.4 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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