prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
86% 18 California 26 30.2, 104 Stanford 17 7.5
86% 7 Louisville 48 35.2, 62 Connecticut 17 14.5
83% 22 Texas Christian 38 30.6, 80 Air Force 14 12.6
76% 120 Troy State 26 20.9, 184 Florida International 13 10.9
73% 81 Appalachian State 38 23.3, 123 Montana State 17 14.5
72% 144 New Mexico State 50 36.5, 166 Louisiana Tech 23 26.5
72% 89 Youngstown State 28 28.6, 122 Illinois State 21 19.7
71% 52 Navy 26 25.1, 106 Army 14 16.7
68% 20 West Virginia 41 28.9, 32 Rutgers 39 21.3
68% 3 Florida 38 25.4, 16 Arkansas 28 18.8
64% 45 Massachusetts 24 29.9, 49 New Hampshire 17 24.4
60% 8 Oklahoma 21 23.0, 14 Nebraska 7 20.7
58% 36 Wake Forest 9 17.7, 47 Georgia Tech 6 16.1
56% 66 Houston 34 23.6, 48 Southern Mississippi 20 22.4
52% 111 Montana 20 24.1, 97 Southern Illinois 3 23.6
50% 113 San Jose State 24 25.0, 83 Fresno State 14 25.0
49% 86 Central Michigan 31 21.4, 84 Ohio 10 21.5
40% 27 Oregon State 35 30.6, 35 Hawaii 32 33.3
39% 129 San Diego 27 18.7, 140 Monmouth 7 21.4
37% 143 Northeast Louisiana 39 20.0, 130 Louisiana - Lafayette 20 25.3
30% 212 Alcorn State 21 21.5, 198 Grambling 14 28.9
30% 31 California - Los Angel 13 18.0, 1 Southern California 9 26.5
28% 152 San Diego State 17 14.6, 79 Colorado State 6 22.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 1.03 6 0.76 7 0.99 3 1.18 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 23 15 15.4 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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