prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
78% 14 South Carolina 44 32.7, 66 Houston 36 19.6
77% 18 Texas Christian 37 24.0, 69 Northern Illinois 7 12.8
77% 7 Louisville 24 24.8, 43 Wake Forest 13 13.6
76% 12 Boston College 25 25.6, 47 Navy 24 15.7
76% 11 West Virginia 38 30.5, 46 Georgia Tech 35 19.9
75% 6 Texas 26 27.5, 39 Iowa 24 17.7
74% 38 Miami - Florida 21 19.4, 76 Nevada - Reno 20 11.0
70% 73 Central Michigan 31 27.5, 122 Middle Tennessee State 14 19.6
70% 3 Louisiana State 41 29.6, 16 Notre Dame 14 22.1
69% 29 Rutgers 37 26.7, 50 Kansas State 10 19.4
68% 63 Southern Mississippi 28 19.9, 100 Ohio 7 14.3
67% 44 Cincinnati 27 22.7, 80 Western Michigan 24 16.5
66% 45 South Florida 24 21.5, 77 East Carolina 7 16.5
66% 2 Southern California 32 22.2, 13 Michigan 18 16.5
64% 37 Utah 25 23.8, 58 Tulsa 13 18.7
64% 24 Texas Tech 44 31.5, 40 Minnesota 41 26.6
64% 9 Brigham Young 38 35.1, 28 Oregon 8 30.6
61% 204 Alabama A&M 22 24.1, 199 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 13 20.9
60% 41 Hawaii 41 35.1, 31 Arizona State 24 32.5
60% 10 Auburn 17 20.1, 19 Nebraska 14 18.0
51% 26 California 45 24.3, 27 Texas A&M 10 24.1
50% 33 Oregon State 39 22.8, 32 Missouri 38 22.8
50% 20 Penn State 20 17.4, 23 Tennessee 10 17.4
49% 36 Oklahoma State 34 23.4, 34 Alabama 31 23.6
46% 25 Wisconsin 17 18.9, 21 Arkansas 14 19.6
45% 55 Appalachian State 28 19.3, 48 Massachusetts 17 20.2
44% 123 Troy State 41 25.3, 116 Rice 17 26.6
43% 4 Florida 41 18.4, 1 Ohio State 14 19.9
40% 65 Maryland 24 25.5, 49 Purdue 7 28.0
40% 15 Boise State 43 17.9, 8 Oklahoma 42 20.5
38% 42 Florida State 44 18.7, 30 California - Los Angel 27 22.2
27% 22 Georgia 31 10.7, 5 Virginia Tech 24 18.1
26% 108 San Jose State 20 19.9, 81 New Mexico 12 28.8
23% 68 Kentucky 28 24.4, 17 Clemson 20 36.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.74 13 1.31 11 0.97 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 34 23 22.1 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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