prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 193 Bethune - Cookman 45 40.8, 237 Savannah State 13 11.6
92% 39 Miami - Florida 23 35.5, 192 Florida International 9 2.7
92% 26 Rutgers 59 55.9, 215 Norfolk State 0 6.9
92% 15 Georgia 45 56.3, 220 Western Carolina 16 3.3
92% 13 Connecticut 22 40.7, 191 Temple 17 2.0
92% 10 Arizona State 34 46.3, 171 San Diego State 13 6.3
92% 4 Kansas 45 50.4, 139 Toledo 13 11.3
92% 3 Penn State 45 41.9, 147 Buffalo 24 2.1
92% 1 Oklahoma 54 66.4, 156 Utah State 3 4.7
91% 111 San Diego 49 42.3, 228 Northern Colorado 13 7.7
91% 57 Oregon State 61 46.8, 211 Idaho State 10 8.7
91% 28 South Carolina 38 32.6, 173 South Carolina State 3 3.4
90% 22 Wisconsin 45 38.5, 157 The Citadel 31 4.9
90% 2 Louisiana State 44 52.9, 119 Middle Tennessee State 0 7.2
89% 27 Clemson 38 47.2, 151 Furman 10 18.2
89% 14 California 42 53.9, 142 Louisiana Tech 12 24.1
87% 81 James Madison 45 38.7, 213 Virginia Military 17 7.2
87% 25 Appalachian State 34 61.1, 154 Northern Arizona 21 32.6
86% 143 Alabama - Birmingham 22 35.6, 225 Alcorn State 0 7.9
86% 42 Missouri 52 47.4, 128 Western Michigan 24 28.0
85% 133 Hampton 59 44.0, 235 North Carolina A&T 14 10.6
85% 60 Washington State 45 37.8, 145 Idaho 28 18.1
84% 85 Southern Illinois 44 43.2, 209 Southern Utah 10 23.1
84% 43 Texas Tech 59 43.5, 195 Rice 24 17.8
84% 17 Oregon 52 37.8, 84 Fresno State 21 16.4
83% 181 Robert Morris 28 31.0, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 14 8.7
83% 45 Wake Forest 21 24.9, 124 Army 10 6.4
83% 12 Cincinnati 47 32.1, 98 Miami - Ohio 10 14.3
82% 101 Brown 28 34.3, 185 Duquesne 17 16.4
82% 44 Texas A&M 54 41.5, 127 Northeast Louisiana 14 21.6
81% 51 Massachusetts 36 31.4, 120 Towson 13 15.4
80% 91 Delaware 38 35.9, 161 Rhode Island 9 20.8
80% 38 Purdue 45 39.3, 100 Central Michigan 22 22.7
80% 34 Vanderbilt 31 31.8, 82 Mississippi 17 17.0
80% 5 Florida 59 39.0, 32 Tennessee 20 23.7
79% 180 California Poly 47 32.0, 214 Weber State 19 17.2
79% 169 Alabama A&M 45 26.8, 208 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 14.1
79% 105 Villanova 24 23.0, 172 Maine 17 8.1
79% 86 North Dakota State 41 36.8, 201 Sam Houston State 38 13.5
79% 35 Boise State 24 32.7, 73 Wyoming 14 18.8
79% 8 Texas 35 34.8, 78 Central Florida 32 19.1
78% 121 Memphis 35 32.0, 179 Jacksonville State 14 18.5
78% 87 Stanford 37 24.9, 140 San Jose State 0 13.2
78% 68 Arkansas State 45 22.8, 131 Southern Methodist 28 10.3
77% 189 Southern 12 23.5, 219 Prairie View 2 12.1
77% 110 Baylor 34 38.6, 168 Texas State - San Marc 27 24.7
77% 62 Yale 28 27.8, 174 Georgetown 14 11.2
76% 103 Cornell 38 28.6, 164 Bucknell 14 15.4
75% 116 Nevada - Reno 52 27.2, 163 Nicholls State 17 15.9
75% 55 Virginia Tech 28 24.9, 96 Ohio 7 13.5
73% 170 Northeastern 42 20.3, 199 Northwestern State 14 9.2
73% 40 Hawaii 49 38.1, 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 28.5
73% 30 Michigan State 17 29.0, 49 Pittsburgh 13 19.9
72% 18 West Virginia 31 32.7, 64 Maryland 14 23.6
70% 218 Jackson State 28 21.7, 229 Texas Southern 7 12.8
70% 144 Kent State 38 18.2, 165 Delaware State 7 11.3
68% 71 Indiana 41 23.5, 90 Akron 24 16.8
67% 188 Portland State 35 14.7, 196 Sacramento State 24 10.2
67% 167 Western Kentucky 26 23.4, 182 Eastern Kentucky 6 17.0
67% 146 Illinois State 24 31.6, 202 Eastern Illinois 21 24.3
67% 9 Ohio State 33 17.3, 37 Washington 14 12.0
66% 158 William & Mary 48 24.1, 187 Liberty 41 15.8
65% 226 Southeast Missouri Sta 13 28.2, 231 Indiana State 10 22.5
65% 77 Houston 34 39.4, 141 Tulane 10 33.3
64% 92 Northern Iowa 31 25.2, 150 South Dakota State 17 19.1
64% 47 Michigan 38 17.8, 53 Notre Dame 0 13.0
63% 67 Illinois 41 16.1, 125 Syracuse 20 11.2
62% 123 Youngstown State 42 31.0, 130 Stony Brook 6 26.8
62% 94 North Carolina State 38 30.4, 99 Wofford 17 26.4
60% 46 Air Force 20 17.0, 41 Texas Christian 17 14.9
57% 206 Tennessee State 33 15.4, 221 Austin Peay 32 13.5
57% 136 Georgia Southern 42 27.2, 166 Coastal Carolina 34 25.7
56% 20 Kentucky 40 44.4, 11 Louisville 34 43.1
55% 31 Alabama 41 22.7, 21 Arkansas 38 21.6
52% 216 Wagner 24 20.2, 205 Marist 14 19.6
49% 95 Hofstra 28 16.2, 117 Albany 13 16.4
47% 88 New Hampshire 48 29.0, 107 Marshall 35 29.6
45% 210 Florida A&M 30 20.8, 197 Howard 17 22.0
44% 149 Fordham 27 18.3, 115 Columbia 10 20.1
42% 175 Eastern Washington 41 20.6, 137 California - Davis 31 23.2
41% 122 Colgate 31 14.3, 126 Dartmouth 28 16.8
41% 19 Boston College 24 26.6, 23 Georgia Tech 10 29.2
40% 63 Florida State 16 20.6, 65 Colorado 6 23.1
39% 74 Lafayette 8 17.4, 70 Pennsylvania 7 21.0
38% 132 McNeese State 38 23.9, 129 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 27.8
38% 61 Tulsa 55 17.2, 33 Brigham Young 47 20.5
37% 198 Alabama State 12 9.8, 194 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 10 14.1
37% 76 Southern Mississippi 28 19.3, 69 East Carolina 21 23.8
36% 160 New Mexico State 29 31.1, 93 Texas - El Paso 24 38.4
36% 102 Holy Cross 31 26.7, 50 Harvard 28 33.4
35% 203 Iona 34 20.6, 148 Sacred Heart 10 29.2
34% 89 Lehigh 32 17.2, 56 Princeton 21 27.0
30% 118 Ball State 34 22.2, 83 Navy 31 30.7
30% 97 Troy State 41 33.1, 36 Oklahoma State 23 41.0
25% 75 Utah 44 13.4, 29 California - Los Angel 6 22.4
25% 16 Southern California 49 17.3, 6 Nebraska 31 27.1
24% 104 New Mexico 29 12.4, 58 Arizona 27 24.4
23% 152 Florida Atlantic 42 19.9, 79 Minnesota 39 33.1
22% 177 Eastern Michigan 21 10.8, 113 Northern Illinois 19 25.0
22% 109 Duke 20 13.7, 59 Northwestern 14 26.9
21% 108 Virginia 22 14.5, 48 North Carolina 20 29.6
18% 66 Mississippi State 19 6.0, 24 Auburn 14 19.4
15% 138 Iowa State 15 6.5, 7 Iowa 13 30.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.82 26 0.89 29 0.94 22 1.08 13 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 75 76.8 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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