prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 41 Hawaii 66 54.2, 211 Charleston Southern 10 13.8
92% 8 Texas 58 53.9, 185 Rice 14 8.5
92% 6 Kansas 55 46.1, 168 Florida International 3 4.9
91% 12 Cincinnati 40 38.4, 117 Marshall 14 10.0
91% 2 Florida 30 42.7, 84 Mississippi 24 14.2
90% 133 Tulane 35 31.6, 224 Southeast Louisiana 27 4.9
90% 121 Texas - El Paso 52 44.0, 232 Texas Southern 12 6.3
90% 54 Lehigh 37 47.7, 215 Virginia Military 6 7.0
90% 15 Boston College 37 35.4, 127 Army 17 5.4
89% 5 Ohio State 58 27.8, 77 Northwestern 7 4.8
88% 139 Northern Arizona 34 44.4, 227 Northern Colorado 14 15.8
88% 118 Montana State 21 35.8, 218 Weber State 5 12.4
88% 86 New Mexico 58 39.6, 210 Sacramento State 0 7.1
88% 7 Nebraska 41 40.6, 97 Ball State 40 14.2
88% 4 Southern California 47 46.7, 56 Washington State 14 20.7
87% 1 Louisiana State 28 29.4, 24 South Carolina 16 6.4
86% 194 Alabama State 28 17.6, 228 Alcorn State 25 3.1
86% 48 Texas Christian 21 35.0, 150 Southern Methodist 7 12.7
86% 47 Mississippi State 31 35.2, 195 Gardner - Webb 15 3.6
86% 36 Virginia Tech 44 37.8, 154 William & Mary 3 12.8
86% 31 Missouri 38 44.6, 144 Illinois State 17 19.9
86% 10 West Virginia 48 37.7, 90 East Carolina 7 15.8
85% 120 Southern Illinois 58 29.3, 205 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 3 7.9
85% 44 Auburn 55 39.6, 142 New Mexico State 20 18.3
85% 37 Massachusetts 38 28.5, 171 Maine 7 8.6
84% 98 James Madison 45 40.0, 177 Coastal Carolina 10 22.1
84% 85 Bowling Green 48 25.8, 162 Temple 35 7.9
84% 73 Holy Cross 55 37.9, 176 Georgetown 0 17.0
82% 155 Eastern Michigan 38 28.3, 212 Howard 15 9.1
82% 25 Michigan State 31 29.6, 132 Notre Dame 14 10.6
80% 101 McNeese State 41 27.4, 201 Southern Utah 20 11.9
80% 75 Hofstra 37 29.3, 175 Rhode Island 24 15.3
80% 23 California 45 31.6, 63 Arizona 27 17.1
78% 70 New Hampshire 52 47.9, 164 Dartmouth 31 29.4
78% 3 Oklahoma 62 48.3, 38 Tulsa 21 31.9
77% 219 Tennessee Tech 48 40.7, 233 Murray State 24 28.9
77% 157 Florida Atlantic 30 36.1, 213 North Texas 20 23.3
77% 138 San Diego State 52 30.1, 189 Portland State 17 17.2
76% 197 Eastern Illinois 54 27.2, 230 Indiana State 20 16.2
76% 130 Eastern Washington 34 43.4, 214 Idaho State 7 27.4
76% 58 Central Florida 56 34.2, 105 Memphis 20 22.6
75% 32 Purdue 45 43.5, 103 Minnesota 31 34.4
74% 64 Troy State 48 34.2, 149 Louisiana - Lafayette 31 23.6
74% 51 South Florida 37 33.2, 82 North Carolina 10 23.7
73% 136 Elon 42 32.4, 179 Liberty 14 20.8
72% 9 Oregon 55 28.5, 53 Stanford 31 19.0
71% 183 Columbia 31 22.5, 207 Marist 7 11.2
71% 22 Clemson 42 28.3, 61 North Carolina State 20 20.7
69% 145 Western Michigan 51 28.2, 166 Central Connecticut 14 21.1
68% 114 Richmond 45 23.6, 173 Bucknell 14 17.3
68% 71 Harvard 24 31.8, 108 Brown 17 21.9
67% 91 Villanova 34 20.8, 107 Pennsylvania 14 12.9
67% 50 Tennessee 48 32.9, 66 Arkansas State 27 24.9
66% 62 Delaware 27 26.9, 125 Towson 7 20.6
65% 35 Wisconsin 17 22.0, 42 Iowa 13 16.4
64% 222 Samford 26 30.6, 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 24.3
64% 192 Southern 41 23.6, 200 Tennessee State 34 18.5
64% 184 Robert Morris 9 15.6, 216 Morehead State 8 11.0
64% 88 Colorado 42 17.9, 95 Miami - Ohio 0 13.2
63% 83 Houston 38 32.1, 94 Colorado State 27 26.7
63% 57 Wyoming 34 23.6, 111 Ohio 33 19.6
62% 169 Duquesne 30 26.9, 199 Sacred Heart 23 22.1
62% 159 South Dakota State 38 34.5, 158 Texas State - San Marc 3 31.2
62% 122 Montana 35 21.1, 116 Albany 14 17.8
62% 27 Arizona State 44 25.8, 26 Oregon State 32 21.8
62% 14 Michigan 14 22.8, 18 Penn State 9 18.4
61% 182 Stony Brook 21 25.1, 180 Monmouth 15 22.0
61% 170 Hampton 24 27.2, 167 Morgan State 17 24.0
60% 161 California - Davis 28 24.2, 160 Northeastern 10 21.6
60% 96 Navy 46 28.3, 92 Duke 43 25.6
60% 81 Oklahoma State 49 29.6, 72 Texas Tech 45 27.0
60% 55 Wake Forest 31 17.6, 49 Maryland 24 15.2
59% 208 Jackson State 50 17.0, 220 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 15.1
52% 106 Baylor 34 24.4, 129 Buffalo 21 24.0
47% 110 Akron 27 21.5, 87 Kent State 20 22.1
46% 89 Northern Iowa 45 18.5, 102 Drake 7 19.3
45% 141 Toledo 36 22.8, 113 Iowa State 35 23.7
45% 52 Brigham Young 31 28.0, 28 Air Force 6 29.2
41% 115 North Dakota State 44 32.1, 126 Central Michigan 14 34.1
41% 99 Yale 51 18.0, 59 Cornell 12 21.4
40% 19 Kentucky 42 39.4, 21 Arkansas 29 41.8
39% 188 Eastern Kentucky 31 19.6, 186 Jacksonville State 20 22.7
39% 178 Grambling 31 23.7, 146 Alabama A&M 6 27.2
39% 131 Northern Illinois 42 20.8, 134 Idaho 35 23.9
38% 124 Western Kentucky 20 18.7, 119 Middle Tennessee State 17 22.8
37% 78 Illinois 27 23.0, 69 Indiana 14 27.6
37% 76 California - Los Angel 44 18.7, 34 Washington 31 22.6
37% 68 Princeton 20 16.1, 60 Lafayette 14 20.2
37% 46 Connecticut 34 16.1, 43 Pittsburgh 14 20.2
36% 226 Norfolk State 38 19.5, 206 Bethune - Cookman 31 24.8
33% 174 Western Illinois 34 14.1, 165 Stephen F. Austin 13 19.5
33% 80 Virginia 28 12.8, 30 Georgia Tech 23 18.9
32% 163 Dayton 31 19.2, 143 Fordham 24 25.6
30% 217 Austin Peay 17 20.3, 181 Tennessee - Martin 14 29.2
28% 67 Miami - Florida 34 20.2, 17 Texas A&M 17 30.0
26% 40 Georgia 26 17.3, 16 Alabama 23 28.1
21% 193 San Jose State 23 11.3, 153 Utah State 20 23.5
21% 140 Wofford 42 25.8, 29 Appalachian State 31 42.7
20% 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 8.1, 13 Utah 0 25.5
17% 202 Tennessee - Chattanoog 45 18.9, 123 Georgia Southern 38 39.2
9% 147 Syracuse 38 15.4, 20 Louisville 35 45.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
10 0.53 36 1.00 23 1.03 24 1.11 8 0.96 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 74 74.1 1.00
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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