prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 85 Montana 18 46.8, 219 Weber State 10 12.6
92% 67 Texas Tech 75 57.2, 225 Northwestern State 7 14.0
92% 27 Arkansas 66 59.8, 210 North Texas 7 16.2
92% 9 Kentucky 45 47.3, 162 Florida Atlantic 17 10.2
91% 1 Louisiana State 34 52.7, 177 Tulane 9 7.3
90% 101 San Diego 56 44.7, 233 Butler 9 9.0
90% 3 Ohio State 30 46.5, 115 Minnesota 7 17.6
89% 137 Drake 48 44.6, 234 Valparaiso 20 6.3
89% 70 Southern Illinois 72 50.0, 227 Indiana State 10 11.6
89% 37 Central Florida 37 43.7, 161 Louisiana - Lafayette 19 17.0
89% 22 Tulsa 38 41.0, 139 Alabama - Birmingham 30 14.8
88% 143 New Mexico State 20 39.7, 224 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 11.7
87% 60 Utah 34 27.1, 163 Utah State 18 5.2
87% 33 Vanderbilt 30 37.0, 138 Eastern Michigan 7 13.2
86% 186 Jacksonville State 40 36.2, 235 Murray State 24 16.9
86% 174 Eastern Kentucky 43 37.4, 230 Samford 20 15.7
86% 66 Princeton 42 26.1, 157 Columbia 32 5.9
85% 159 California Poly 56 31.8, 221 Northern Colorado 21 9.8
85% 62 Oklahoma State 39 49.6, 168 Sam Houston State 3 26.5
85% 25 Nebraska 35 41.7, 118 Iowa State 17 20.0
85% 18 Virginia Tech 17 31.5, 92 North Carolina 10 12.9
85% 16 Michigan 28 27.9, 114 Northwestern 16 10.1
84% 82 Delaware 42 28.3, 160 Monmouth 7 10.1
84% 29 Connecticut 44 29.5, 99 Akron 10 11.9
83% 47 Texas A&M 34 42.8, 120 Baylor 10 24.7
83% 28 Hawaii 48 41.7, 134 Idaho 20 24.1
82% 185 Alabama A&M 48 34.5, 231 Texas Southern 24 15.9
81% 144 Grambling 17 21.3, 209 Prairie View 14 6.7
81% 107 Hofstra 33 33.9, 175 Stony Brook 28 17.0
81% 44 Purdue 33 28.3, 112 Notre Dame 19 12.0
80% 176 Bucknell 38 29.8, 213 Marist 7 16.1
80% 73 Troy State 24 39.7, 131 Northeast Louisiana 7 25.1
80% 48 Miami - Florida 24 28.2, 108 Duke 14 13.6
80% 43 Boise State 38 29.4, 90 Southern Mississippi 16 15.9
80% 24 South Carolina 38 24.4, 95 Mississippi State 21 7.0
79% 165 Montana State 40 24.9, 215 Idaho State 20 7.0
79% 116 South Dakota State 45 29.3, 173 Stephen F. Austin 0 16.1
79% 81 Ball State 49 34.8, 145 Buffalo 14 19.0
79% 17 Cincinnati 52 30.4, 98 San Diego State 23 16.9
78% 30 Georgia 45 26.5, 78 Mississippi 17 15.0
78% 5 Southern California 27 32.1, 46 Washington 24 18.7
77% 200 Liberty 68 37.1, 222 Saint Francis - Pennsy 10 24.4
77% 187 Eastern Illinois 31 26.4, 229 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 15.0
76% 181 Gardner - Webb 20 27.6, 211 Austin Peay 13 16.6
76% 171 Georgia Southern 50 39.0, 199 Western Carolina 21 27.8
76% 77 Northern Iowa 23 23.1, 151 Illinois State 13 12.7
75% 142 Middle Tennessee State 47 25.4, 179 Florida International 6 15.3
75% 21 Boston College 24 31.5, 52 Massachusetts 14 20.3
72% 103 Arkansas State 35 32.8, 122 Memphis 31 24.3
72% 56 Texas Christian 24 25.0, 87 Colorado State 12 16.6
71% 193 Davidson 20 27.0, 223 Jacksonville 10 18.7
71% 180 Wagner 18 26.2, 196 Sacred Heart 15 18.3
71% 121 Army 37 21.3, 152 Temple 21 13.5
70% 124 Cornell 45 27.2, 184 Georgetown 7 19.7
70% 12 Arizona State 41 27.2, 63 Stanford 3 19.0
69% 51 Appalachian State 49 31.5, 106 Elon 32 24.2
67% 170 Morgan State 33 26.9, 205 Bethune - Cookman 9 20.5
65% 100 Wofford 45 30.4, 147 Furman 20 25.1
65% 68 Arizona 48 33.3, 79 Washington State 20 28.1
63% 117 Bowling Green 41 25.7, 119 Western Kentucky 21 21.0
63% 41 Wisconsin 37 27.8, 42 Michigan State 34 23.7
62% 132 Fresno State 17 29.7, 136 Louisiana Tech 6 25.5
62% 86 Western Michigan 42 41.2, 130 Toledo 28 37.5
61% 89 North Dakota State 41 21.0, 127 Western Illinois 28 17.9
61% 65 Lehigh 20 23.7, 64 Harvard 13 20.6
59% 192 Southern 21 25.8, 197 Alabama State 2 23.6
59% 88 James Madison 35 25.7, 83 Villanova 7 23.6
59% 20 Brigham Young 31 28.2, 49 New Mexico 24 25.9
58% 217 Norfolk State 50 22.8, 226 North Carolina A&T 20 20.9
58% 104 Texas - El Paso 48 26.6, 126 Southern Methodist 45 24.9
54% 149 Dartmouth 21 20.7, 129 Pennsylvania 13 20.0
53% 91 Navy 31 29.6, 76 Air Force 20 28.9
52% 201 Florida A&M 18 27.7, 203 Tennessee State 17 27.2
50% 146 The Citadel 41 34.9, 166 Tennessee - Chattanoog 16 34.9
49% 93 Nevada - Reno 27 24.4, 71 Nevada - Las Vegas 20 24.7
45% 158 San Jose State 34 23.5, 125 California - Davis 14 24.5
44% 50 Louisville 29 33.1, 59 North Carolina State 10 34.4
41% 96 Kent State 33 23.5, 105 Ohio 25 25.6
40% 141 Central Michigan 35 24.3, 110 Northern Illinois 10 27.2
40% 58 Illinois 27 19.8, 26 Penn State 20 22.3
39% 15 South Florida 21 21.0, 6 West Virginia 13 24.0
38% 178 William & Mary 27 19.5, 133 Towson 22 23.7
38% 39 Yale 38 26.2, 34 Holy Cross 17 30.2
37% 61 Georgia Tech 13 23.6, 19 Clemson 3 28.7
37% 13 California 31 35.3, 11 Oregon 24 39.6
36% 72 Virginia 44 13.3, 35 Pittsburgh 14 17.3
33% 153 Miami - Ohio 17 13.5, 97 Syracuse 14 20.6
33% 113 Richmond 45 26.7, 57 New Hampshire 38 33.8
33% 54 California - Los Angel 40 27.1, 36 Oregon State 14 35.1
30% 45 Florida State 21 18.3, 14 Alabama 14 25.5
29% 208 Tennessee Tech 13 23.2, 194 Tennessee - Martin 10 31.7
27% 154 Fordham 34 18.6, 123 Colgate 31 27.1
25% 111 East Carolina 37 18.3, 80 Houston 35 28.0
24% 204 Virginia Military 40 12.3, 182 Robert Morris 13 21.8
24% 191 Delaware State 24 13.0, 164 Hampton 17 22.4
24% 75 Indiana 38 14.5, 38 Iowa 20 24.8
23% 214 Morehead State 42 11.9, 155 Dayton 35 23.9
21% 32 Colorado 27 15.1, 2 Oklahoma 24 31.8
20% 169 Rhode Island 49 16.7, 109 Brown 42 31.0
18% 23 Auburn 20 21.6, 4 Florida 17 39.0
17% 207 Portland State 28 16.5, 128 Eastern Washington 21 36.4
17% 55 Maryland 34 9.3, 8 Rutgers 24 26.2
15% 74 Kansas State 41 15.4, 10 Texas 21 33.7
13% 232 Sacramento State 38 12.7, 150 Northern Arizona 9 35.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 1.15 23 0.81 30 0.92 31 0.99 6 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 104 74 77.3 0.96
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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