prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 144 Iona 56 48.2, 237 La Salle 3 8.4
91% 27 Boise State 58 44.4, 157 New Mexico State 0 16.5
91% 24 Michigan 33 33.1, 156 Eastern Michigan 22 4.9
91% 15 Arkansas 34 49.5, 182 Tennessee - Chattanoog 15 14.0
91% 6 South Florida 35 38.1, 139 Florida Atlantic 23 8.0
90% 74 Elon 38 40.6, 207 Western Carolina 36 13.3
90% 56 James Madison 21 32.8, 192 Northeastern 14 7.3
90% 34 Hawaii 52 43.2, 152 Utah State 37 16.7
89% 165 Morgan State 22 33.7, 231 North Carolina A&T 17 6.5
89% 77 Troy State 34 36.6, 208 Florida International 16 11.8
89% 52 Appalachian State 45 44.9, 180 Gardner - Webb 7 16.7
88% 122 San Diego 41 48.5, 233 Valparaiso 27 19.9
88% 28 Yale 50 35.5, 132 Dartmouth 10 11.3
86% 168 Grambling 40 28.9, 225 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 9.0
85% 155 Louisiana - Lafayette 38 38.2, 217 North Texas 29 17.7
85% 14 Boston College 55 41.3, 93 Bowling Green 24 20.7
85% 7 West Virginia 55 32.8, 98 Syracuse 14 11.2
84% 199 Nicholls State 58 40.8, 235 Northwestern State 0 17.4
82% 104 North Dakota State 35 36.8, 174 California - Davis 16 19.8
82% 13 Florida State 27 25.7, 73 North Carolina State 10 8.6
81% 185 Dayton 49 34.9, 226 Jacksonville 3 17.5
80% 105 Hofstra 38 24.0, 163 Maine 13 10.6
80% 40 Texas Tech 42 34.3, 107 Iowa State 17 16.5
80% 23 Colorado 43 28.1, 114 Baylor 23 14.5
79% 194 Central Connecticut 43 31.7, 234 Saint Francis - Pennsy 7 15.4
79% 151 Western Illinois 19 28.7, 223 Indiana State 7 12.5
79% 39 Alabama 30 33.6, 83 Houston 24 20.5
79% 10 Arizona State 23 36.3, 91 Washington State 20 21.2
78% 216 Charleston Southern 28 34.7, 236 Savannah State 0 16.8
78% 178 Delaware State 24 22.3, 206 Bethune - Cookman 10 10.9
78% 166 Duquesne 31 25.8, 221 Marist 21 14.0
78% 159 Montana State 7 24.5, 195 Southern Utah 3 11.2
78% 94 Lafayette 29 22.9, 142 Columbia 0 11.3
78% 36 Virginia 23 31.9, 121 Middle Tennessee State 21 19.1
78% 8 Auburn 35 28.4, 38 Vanderbilt 7 15.4
77% 153 Pennsylvania 42 18.5, 177 Georgetown 13 9.1
77% 116 Montana 24 28.3, 164 Eastern Washington 23 16.5
76% 158 Drake 37 19.7, 203 Butler 19 4.8
76% 115 Villanova 63 35.2, 161 William & Mary 24 22.8
75% 97 Mississippi 24 26.7, 154 Louisiana Tech 0 15.0
74% 51 Indiana 40 37.7, 84 Minnesota 20 26.6
74% 3 Oklahoma 28 37.0, 26 Texas 21 26.8
73% 188 Jacksonville State 27 19.8, 204 Tennessee - Martin 24 12.5
73% 162 Furman 27 31.1, 184 Coastal Carolina 17 21.8
72% 100 Mississippi State 30 24.8, 129 Alabama - Birmingham 13 16.1
70% 222 Idaho State 26 33.3, 230 Northern Colorado 14 24.1
70% 126 Colgate 28 25.9, 149 Bucknell 24 18.0
70% 46 Penn State 27 22.4, 65 Iowa 7 15.7
69% 201 Weber State 26 20.5, 211 Sacramento State 7 13.9
69% 120 Army 20 24.8, 143 Tulane 17 17.2
69% 5 Ohio State 23 23.3, 45 Purdue 7 15.0
67% 173 Wagner 20 14.6, 209 Robert Morris 13 9.6
67% 124 San Jose State 28 24.0, 138 Idaho 20 18.1
67% 71 Holy Cross 48 41.4, 131 Brown 37 34.0
66% 147 Albany 24 23.2, 160 Stony Brook 23 18.0
66% 134 McNeese State 41 27.3, 176 Texas State - San Marc 20 21.8
64% 89 Air Force 31 19.5, 95 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 13.9
64% 41 Maryland 28 22.0, 50 Georgia Tech 26 17.0
63% 198 Jackson State 32 18.6, 202 Alabama State 20 14.9
63% 68 Wake Forest 41 25.0, 109 Duke 36 20.3
63% 44 Texas A&M 24 31.9, 47 Oklahoma State 23 26.9
63% 2 Louisiana State 28 23.8, 4 Florida 24 19.1
62% 66 New Hampshire 35 37.4, 67 Delaware 30 33.7
62% 57 Wyoming 24 18.1, 48 Texas Christian 21 15.0
60% 62 Oregon State 31 27.4, 55 Arizona 16 24.5
59% 175 Monmouth 49 23.3, 197 Sacred Heart 8 21.2
59% 170 Northern Arizona 44 29.5, 190 Portland State 43 27.5
59% 108 Wofford 28 31.5, 136 The Citadel 7 29.4
59% 9 Kansas 30 22.7, 22 Kansas State 24 20.6
58% 123 Memphis 24 28.4, 112 Marshall 21 26.8
53% 172 Eastern Kentucky 28 21.5, 187 Eastern Illinois 21 21.0
53% 145 Toledo 35 36.9, 127 Liberty 34 36.2
51% 33 Missouri 41 33.9, 17 Nebraska 6 33.6
51% 19 South Carolina 38 27.7, 12 Kentucky 23 27.5
49% 79 Harvard 32 19.9, 102 Cornell 15 20.0
49% 54 Illinois 31 23.4, 35 Wisconsin 26 23.6
48% 224 Southeast Louisiana 21 16.8, 214 Stephen F. Austin 3 17.2
48% 42 Tennessee 35 30.5, 25 Georgia 14 30.8
46% 20 Virginia Tech 41 16.2, 31 Clemson 23 16.9
44% 76 North Carolina 33 21.3, 59 Miami - Florida 27 22.5
42% 125 Towson 23 18.4, 90 Richmond 21 19.9
41% 210 Prairie View 17 6.6, 219 Alcorn State 7 8.2
40% 167 Temple 16 26.9, 137 Northern Illinois 15 29.8
40% 111 Southern Illinois 24 22.2, 78 Youngstown State 17 24.4
39% 181 Alabama A&M 33 25.5, 179 Southern 28 28.9
38% 96 East Carolina 52 28.7, 61 Central Florida 38 33.2
37% 218 Norfolk State 20 19.3, 186 South Carolina State 13 23.9
37% 148 Northeast Louisiana 30 21.1, 103 Arkansas State 13 26.3
37% 99 Texas - El Paso 48 29.4, 60 Tulsa 47 34.5
37% 29 Cincinnati 28 18.7, 30 Rutgers 23 23.0
35% 92 San Diego State 24 26.3, 81 Colorado State 20 31.9
33% 213 Morehead State 49 14.0, 196 Davidson 21 21.9
29% 220 Austin Peay 30 18.8, 200 Tennessee Tech 27 27.9
28% 118 Fresno State 49 22.3, 88 Nevada - Reno 41 32.1
28% 113 Akron 39 27.3, 86 Western Michigan 38 36.1
26% 150 Georgia Southern 41 24.6, 80 South Dakota State 38 33.6
25% 171 Buffalo 31 21.1, 101 Ohio 10 31.5
25% 135 Fordham 28 17.6, 69 Lehigh 18 26.9
25% 119 Miami - Ohio 20 17.0, 82 Kent State 13 26.8
21% 70 Utah 44 20.7, 18 Louisville 35 34.6
19% 133 Central Michigan 58 18.7, 63 Ball State 38 36.0
18% 110 Notre Dame 20 12.9, 49 California - Los Angel 6 28.9
17% 117 Northwestern 48 16.6, 53 Michigan State 41 33.5
16% 169 Hampton 48 17.1, 75 Princeton 27 38.4
14% 183 Rice 31 16.9, 106 Southern Mississippi 29 36.8
12% 64 Stanford 24 8.3, 1 Southern California 23 33.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
19 0.95 28 1.04 32 0.98 21 0.83 6 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 74 76.6 0.97
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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