prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 6 Kansas 58 43.0, 114 Baylor 10 13.1
92% 4 Ohio State 48 33.6, 113 Kent State 3 2.8
91% 90 North Dakota State 58 42.1, 231 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 6.6
89% 84 Youngstown State 23 32.0, 191 Southern Utah 22 6.6
88% 62 Delaware 30 31.7, 185 Northeastern 20 5.0
88% 7 Boise State 69 44.1, 98 Nevada - Reno 67 19.2
87% 180 Eastern Kentucky 44 29.7, 227 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 9.3
87% 162 Duquesne 24 34.1, 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 17 10.9
87% 56 Holy Cross 41 40.8, 154 Dartmouth 15 19.9
86% 143 Grambling 30 27.2, 220 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 7.8
86% 127 Illinois State 69 36.5, 219 Indiana State 17 11.2
86% 106 Wofford 52 34.3, 193 Gardner - Webb 17 13.3
86% 12 Oregon 53 42.7, 92 Washington State 7 21.9
85% 110 Montana 17 33.4, 217 Sacramento State 3 11.1
84% 150 Dayton 38 38.0, 225 Davidson 28 16.3
84% 70 Houston 56 41.1, 157 Rice 48 22.7
83% 19 Yale 23 28.8, 85 Lehigh 7 11.9
83% 17 Texas 56 35.7, 120 Iowa State 3 18.5
82% 145 Albany 38 28.9, 203 Sacred Heart 7 11.5
82% 65 New Hampshire 49 38.2, 172 Iona 21 15.5
82% 55 Tulsa 38 39.9, 119 Marshall 31 24.2
82% 14 Southern California 20 32.7, 69 Arizona 13 16.2
81% 196 Eastern Illinois 27 36.6, 234 Murray State 24 21.4
81% 23 South Florida 64 37.5, 89 Central Florida 12 20.2
80% 222 Marist 24 29.0, 235 La Salle 10 11.7
80% 206 Tennessee - Martin 31 32.2, 229 Samford 21 16.8
80% 189 Weber State 23 27.8, 230 Northern Colorado 0 14.7
80% 165 Tennessee - Chattanoog 39 32.1, 205 Western Carolina 21 17.7
79% 175 Morgan State 36 29.0, 211 Howard 33 16.4
79% 105 Richmond 42 34.1, 159 Stony Brook 0 20.5
78% 128 McNeese State 31 28.3, 184 Sam Houston State 21 15.6
78% 21 Penn State 38 34.7, 57 Wisconsin 7 22.0
78% 18 Virginia Tech 43 26.6, 96 Duke 14 14.4
78% 9 Arizona State 44 29.5, 32 Washington 20 17.4
77% 11 Boston College 27 26.2, 81 Notre Dame 14 14.1
76% 188 Northern Arizona 45 39.6, 221 Idaho State 24 27.3
76% 177 Nicholls State 17 21.9, 226 Stephen F. Austin 16 10.7
76% 101 Pennsylvania 59 24.7, 178 Columbia 28 13.0
76% 40 Utah 23 28.9, 82 San Diego State 7 17.7
75% 179 Delaware State 27 20.6, 223 North Carolina A&T 0 11.4
75% 100 Ball State 35 32.4, 142 Western Kentucky 12 20.6
75% 36 Hawaii 42 37.7, 117 San Jose State 35 27.2
75% 16 South Carolina 21 32.2, 73 North Carolina 15 22.6
75% 3 Oklahoma 41 34.5, 10 Missouri 31 22.9
73% 107 Cornell 17 27.0, 136 Colgate 14 18.2
73% 48 Massachusetts 32 27.7, 77 Villanova 24 18.2
73% 34 Brigham Young 24 27.2, 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 17.5
72% 187 Central Connecticut 16 16.9, 199 Robert Morris 10 9.8
72% 71 James Madison 44 27.7, 140 Rhode Island 27 19.3
72% 26 Rutgers 38 24.3, 91 Syracuse 14 16.0
71% 124 Fordham 38 26.7, 183 Georgetown 31 19.0
71% 20 Kansas State 47 26.0, 31 Colorado 20 18.3
70% 28 Tennessee 33 29.7, 95 Mississippi State 21 21.0
69% 87 Western Michigan 17 38.3, 155 Northern Illinois 13 30.2
67% 133 Arkansas State 52 28.0, 152 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 21.6
67% 122 Southern Mississippi 28 30.9, 134 Southern Methodist 7 24.0
67% 112 Elon 36 40.0, 129 Georgia Southern 33 33.4
67% 108 Fresno State 37 29.2, 167 Idaho 24 21.6
67% 104 Central Michigan 47 24.0, 125 Army 23 17.0
67% 97 Miami - Ohio 47 27.9, 111 Bowling Green 14 21.5
67% 86 Northern Iowa 30 19.3, 102 Southern Illinois 24 14.1
67% 60 Harvard 27 16.7, 66 Lafayette 17 11.8
67% 27 Michigan 48 26.4, 45 Purdue 21 19.1
67% 5 Auburn 9 25.5, 29 Arkansas 7 19.4
66% 33 Texas Tech 35 34.8, 42 Texas A&M 7 29.2
65% 79 Northwestern 49 35.1, 94 Minnesota 48 28.9
65% 30 Alabama 27 23.0, 78 Mississippi 24 17.3
64% 139 Ohio 48 23.3, 149 Eastern Michigan 42 18.5
63% 163 Eastern Washington 35 17.4, 166 Montana State 13 13.6
63% 158 The Citadel 54 20.2, 160 Furman 51 16.0
63% 138 Buffalo 43 28.8, 144 Toledo 33 24.3
63% 93 Hofstra 20 26.6, 132 Towson 3 22.1
62% 218 Alcorn State 22 17.8, 228 Texas Southern 20 14.2
61% 169 Louisiana Tech 22 23.9, 164 New Mexico State 21 20.5
61% 141 California Poly 63 29.6, 173 California - Davis 28 26.5
60% 200 South Carolina State 49 17.6, 194 Florida A&M 14 15.6
60% 121 Brown 33 37.5, 115 Princeton 24 35.2
58% 147 Alabama - Birmingham 26 28.0, 135 Tulane 21 26.3
58% 63 Iowa 10 19.0, 49 Illinois 6 17.5
55% 148 San Diego 59 26.9, 130 Drake 19 25.8
54% 197 Jacksonville State 42 25.3, 209 Austin Peay 9 24.5
54% 75 Air Force 45 22.8, 99 Colorado State 21 22.1
49% 74 Michigan State 52 30.5, 52 Indiana 27 30.8
49% 43 Georgia 20 21.6, 61 Vanderbilt 17 21.7
48% 123 Middle Tennessee State 21 28.6, 137 Memphis 7 29.0
47% 224 Valparaiso 42 22.4, 214 Butler 37 23.1
46% 202 Tennessee State 45 24.4, 213 Tennessee Tech 28 25.3
44% 204 Prairie View 17 14.3, 212 Alabama State 6 15.4
43% 76 East Carolina 45 31.9, 88 Texas - El Paso 42 33.7
40% 54 Georgia Tech 17 20.3, 59 Miami - Florida 14 23.1
40% 53 Virginia 17 16.6, 24 Connecticut 16 19.1
40% 47 Oklahoma State 45 23.2, 50 Nebraska 14 26.4
37% 198 Jackson State 32 21.1, 190 Southern 26 25.9
36% 44 New Mexico 20 22.3, 38 Wyoming 3 26.9
35% 80 Navy 48 23.2, 64 Pittsburgh 45 28.9
35% 67 Wake Forest 24 18.6, 22 Florida State 21 24.3
33% 176 Wagner 45 11.3, 171 Monmouth 16 16.0
33% 168 William & Mary 21 18.5, 153 Maine 20 24.9
32% 51 Texas Christian 38 12.7, 35 Stanford 36 18.8
31% 25 Kentucky 43 20.2, 2 Louisiana State 37 27.9
24% 41 Louisville 28 27.2, 15 Cincinnati 24 37.7
23% 207 Norfolk State 20 20.3, 131 Hampton 19 33.7
22% 156 Temple 24 17.4, 103 Akron 20 29.8
22% 46 Oregon State 31 24.3, 13 California 28 36.6
21% 233 Jacksonville 34 14.3, 195 Morehead State 24 28.8
19% 236 Northwestern State 27 19.6, 210 Southeast Louisiana 24 36.4
18% 216 North Texas 31 18.2, 116 Northeast Louisiana 21 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 0.90 33 1.03 32 1.12 25 1.09 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 82 77.1 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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