prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 107 Montana 52 42.5, 235 Northern Colorado 7 2.5
91% 117 Albany 58 36.1, 230 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 7.5
91% 95 San Diego 62 47.4, 226 Jacksonville 23 11.5
91% 6 Oklahoma 17 42.4, 127 Iowa State 7 11.7
89% 7 West Virginia 38 36.6, 100 Mississippi State 13 6.9
88% 43 Georgia Tech 34 35.2, 151 Army 10 9.8
87% 185 Sam Houston State 42 44.1, 234 Northwestern State 20 19.5
87% 83 Troy State 45 47.9, 199 North Texas 7 21.4
87% 50 Massachusetts 24 30.4, 152 Northeastern 7 7.2
86% 31 Brigham Young 42 40.4, 130 Eastern Washington 7 16.0
86% 16 Texas 31 35.0, 126 Baylor 10 13.9
86% 12 Boise State 45 43.7, 145 Louisiana Tech 31 17.1
86% 1 Ohio State 24 32.0, 44 Michigan State 17 9.5
82% 67 Wisconsin 44 32.4, 149 Northern Illinois 3 14.3
81% 144 Western Kentucky 56 34.9, 229 Indiana State 7 13.0
80% 84 Syracuse 20 26.5, 142 Buffalo 12 12.2
79% 205 Howard 35 25.0, 232 North Carolina A&T 27 11.7
79% 190 Jacksonville State 38 33.8, 220 Tennessee Tech 10 19.7
79% 188 Texas State - San Marc 52 30.0, 218 Stephen F. Austin 29 17.0
79% 178 Montana State 20 19.2, 207 Sacramento State 9 7.0
79% 72 Richmond 38 30.5, 138 Rhode Island 6 15.3
79% 60 Harvard 27 33.4, 122 Princeton 10 19.0
79% 4 Kansas 19 32.5, 55 Colorado 14 18.0
78% 176 Alabama A&M 31 31.7, 212 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 14 17.7
78% 15 Penn State 36 33.7, 88 Indiana 31 19.5
77% 159 Dayton 33 44.3, 224 Valparaiso 7 31.4
77% 37 Clemson 70 39.0, 89 Central Michigan 14 25.6
77% 27 New Mexico 20 28.9, 101 San Diego State 17 16.1
76% 195 Southern 14 25.0, 219 Alcorn State 10 14.4
76% 86 Northern Iowa 42 22.3, 165 Western Illinois 3 10.6
76% 25 Yale 26 26.3, 92 Pennsylvania 20 15.7
75% 174 Duquesne 17 18.3, 196 Robert Morris 14 9.9
75% 154 Liberty 50 31.4, 210 Charleston Southern 10 20.9
75% 69 Northwestern 26 34.1, 133 Eastern Michigan 14 21.6
74% 173 Eastern Kentucky 49 29.6, 197 Tennessee State 7 20.1
74% 164 Northeast Louisiana 28 21.0, 193 Florida International 14 12.7
74% 8 Oregon 55 33.0, 46 Washington 34 23.0
73% 11 Missouri 41 33.5, 20 Texas Tech 10 24.2
72% 204 Sacred Heart 41 27.4, 222 Marist 34 19.0
72% 141 The Citadel 37 39.0, 208 Western Carolina 31 27.9
72% 21 Southern California 38 21.1, 79 Notre Dame 0 12.9
69% 125 Florida Atlantic 39 28.3, 182 Louisiana - Lafayette 32 20.8
69% 14 Michigan 27 25.9, 51 Illinois 17 17.8
68% 225 Mississippi Valley Sta 37 21.0, 228 Texas Southern 35 14.7
68% 147 Dartmouth 37 26.9, 167 Columbia 28 19.9
68% 121 Colgate 27 20.0, 129 Towson 17 13.4
68% 113 South Dakota State 48 32.7, 128 California Poly 35 25.5
68% 94 Fresno State 30 29.5, 111 San Jose State 0 22.8
67% 198 Eastern Illinois 29 22.5, 206 Tennessee - Martin 23 16.9
67% 172 Delaware State 25 20.9, 183 Morgan State 17 15.2
67% 91 Houston 49 35.6, 148 Alabama - Birmingham 10 28.7
67% 2 Florida 45 41.1, 18 Kentucky 37 35.1
66% 156 New Mexico State 45 30.7, 170 Idaho 31 24.1
66% 61 Air Force 20 19.4, 74 Wyoming 12 13.3
66% 3 Louisiana State 30 19.4, 5 Auburn 24 14.3
65% 33 Arkansas 44 26.5, 73 Mississippi 8 20.9
64% 214 Morehead State 24 25.3, 221 Butler 3 19.5
64% 96 Nevada - Reno 31 42.0, 146 Utah State 28 36.9
62% 105 Middle Tennessee State 24 29.4, 108 Arkansas State 7 25.1
62% 58 Purdue 31 22.3, 54 Iowa 6 18.8
62% 49 New Hampshire 40 37.0, 90 Hofstra 3 33.0
61% 136 Toledo 43 37.4, 132 Ohio 40 33.9
60% 47 Holy Cross 59 26.0, 80 Lehigh 10 23.3
58% 115 Cornell 38 26.0, 102 Brown 31 24.5
56% 223 Austin Peay 28 24.9, 227 Samford 25 23.7
56% 202 Norfolk State 33 28.6, 215 Florida A&M 27 27.2
56% 134 McNeese State 28 16.8, 163 Nicholls State 7 15.8
52% 175 Grambling 30 24.8, 192 Jackson State 20 24.4
50% 168 California - Davis 41 22.6, 189 Southern Utah 21 22.6
49% 39 Alabama 41 28.7, 30 Tennessee 17 28.9
48% 36 Connecticut 21 27.8, 24 Louisville 17 28.2
47% 181 Stony Brook 30 19.6, 153 Maine 23 20.3
47% 68 Ball State 27 33.1, 87 Western Michigan 23 33.7
43% 97 Southern Mississippi 33 21.4, 114 Marshall 24 22.8
42% 19 Rutgers 30 19.9, 9 South Florida 27 21.5
41% 169 Northern Arizona 29 20.7, 177 Weber State 20 23.0
41% 110 Illinois State 27 24.1, 118 Youngstown State 22 26.5
40% 155 South Carolina State 28 17.5, 161 Hampton 24 19.9
40% 98 North Dakota State 27 30.3, 103 Minnesota 21 33.2
40% 70 North Carolina State 34 21.3, 76 East Carolina 20 23.9
39% 166 Furman 28 22.9, 162 Tennessee - Chattanoog 22 27.0
39% 56 Stanford 21 19.9, 57 Arizona 20 23.4
38% 64 Wake Forest 44 34.8, 59 Navy 24 38.5
37% 233 Murray State 31 25.4, 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 30.2
37% 211 Davidson 24 23.4, 184 Drake 21 28.3
37% 140 Bowling Green 31 27.3, 135 Kent State 20 32.4
37% 62 Texas A&M 36 24.3, 53 Nebraska 14 29.0
37% 41 Utah 27 18.0, 40 Texas Christian 20 22.2
37% 32 Oklahoma State 41 24.6, 13 Kansas State 39 29.1
36% 203 Gardner - Webb 36 20.2, 200 Virginia Military 22 25.0
36% 150 Memphis 38 25.9, 139 Rice 35 31.1
36% 143 Tulane 41 21.5, 137 Southern Methodist 34 26.7
36% 63 California - Los Angel 30 26.2, 23 California 21 31.8
35% 217 Idaho State 38 27.4, 194 Portland State 20 32.7
35% 112 Colorado State 48 15.8, 104 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 20.5
34% 48 Virginia 18 16.1, 35 Maryland 17 22.0
33% 186 Central Connecticut 21 15.7, 171 Wagner 13 21.2
33% 116 Fordham 34 17.7, 93 Lafayette 23 24.0
32% 123 Central Florida 44 39.9, 65 Tulsa 23 45.8
28% 180 Georgetown 20 18.7, 158 Bucknell 17 26.8
27% 85 Pittsburgh 24 18.9, 29 Cincinnati 17 28.0
26% 119 Elon 24 23.3, 82 Wofford 13 33.2
24% 157 Temple 24 16.2, 77 Miami - Ohio 17 26.6
24% 71 Miami - Florida 37 13.4, 38 Florida State 29 22.7
21% 52 Vanderbilt 17 14.0, 17 South Carolina 6 26.8
16% 124 Georgia Southern 38 28.0, 45 Appalachian State 35 45.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
16 0.68 42 0.81 31 1.06 13 1.08 4 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 106 69 74.4 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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