prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 27 Arkansas 58 42.9, 190 Florida International 10 4.1
92% 8 Missouri 42 41.2, 120 Iowa State 28 9.2
90% 161 Grambling 57 43.5, 234 Texas Southern 9 14.9
90% 26 Yale 28 38.6, 174 Columbia 7 11.8
89% 127 McNeese State 45 31.0, 218 Southeast Louisiana 17 7.6
89% 5 Auburn 17 30.7, 78 Mississippi 3 5.8
88% 22 Kansas State 51 41.4, 122 Baylor 13 17.5
88% 15 Michigan 34 41.2, 105 Minnesota 10 16.9
87% 45 Hawaii 50 54.6, 143 New Mexico State 13 31.4
86% 42 Holy Cross 45 36.9, 166 Bucknell 21 16.8
86% 33 New Hampshire 49 44.6, 157 Rhode Island 36 17.6
85% 204 Tennessee - Martin 55 29.6, 235 Southeast Missouri Sta 20 10.4
85% 104 North Dakota State 52 31.3, 192 Southern Utah 17 9.6
84% 191 Drake 42 37.8, 232 Jacksonville 14 17.6
84% 146 Eastern Kentucky 46 38.3, 229 Murray State 35 20.3
83% 172 Texas State - San Marc 20 46.1, 233 Northwestern State 17 26.9
83% 111 Middle Tennessee State 48 33.8, 206 North Texas 28 15.8
83% 81 Lehigh 45 26.2, 168 Georgetown 0 7.4
83% 80 Tulsa 29 40.8, 153 Southern Methodist 23 24.2
83% 79 Nevada - Reno 37 47.1, 179 Idaho 21 27.5
83% 30 Vanderbilt 24 30.5, 117 Miami - Ohio 13 8.9
82% 116 Fordham 33 38.6, 217 Marist 0 19.4
82% 63 Harvard 28 32.5, 126 Dartmouth 21 16.7
81% 62 Massachusetts 48 35.9, 164 William & Mary 34 20.3
80% 99 Wofford 47 37.5, 200 Western Carolina 44 20.6
80% 53 Florida State 25 31.8, 106 Duke 6 17.4
79% 188 Morgan State 14 34.4, 222 Florida A&M 12 20.0
79% 101 Elon 38 29.9, 165 Tennessee - Chattanoog 28 16.0
79% 95 Georgia Southern 21 43.0, 159 The Citadel 17 28.9
77% 73 Wyoming 29 22.8, 123 Nevada - Las Vegas 24 11.2
76% 181 Coastal Carolina 42 34.2, 209 Virginia Military 35 22.0
76% 96 East Carolina 41 30.8, 139 Alabama - Birmingham 6 19.3
76% 16 Louisville 24 34.5, 50 Pittsburgh 17 22.4
76% 13 Arizona State 31 32.3, 31 California 20 21.8
75% 137 California Poly 48 37.7, 205 Idaho State 28 27.0
75% 75 Northern Iowa 14 21.2, 118 Youngstown State 13 11.5
75% 52 Wisconsin 33 34.9, 84 Indiana 3 23.9
75% 41 Purdue 35 34.5, 82 Northwestern 17 21.3
75% 28 Oregon State 23 28.0, 56 Stanford 6 18.1
75% 21 Texas 28 25.3, 55 Nebraska 25 15.0
74% 195 Jackson State 17 25.0, 215 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 6 16.1
74% 128 Toledo 70 33.0, 167 Northern Illinois 21 23.1
73% 186 Davidson 44 27.2, 230 Butler 32 17.4
73% 124 Marshall 34 38.5, 148 Rice 21 30.0
72% 77 Villanova 35 25.4, 114 Hofstra 31 16.5
71% 202 Prairie View 26 16.5, 216 Mississippi Valley Sta 21 9.4
71% 182 Alabama A&M 13 25.8, 211 Alabama State 9 18.1
71% 132 Albany 24 19.6, 187 Wagner 10 12.5
70% 189 Sam Houston State 45 29.9, 221 Stephen F. Austin 17 22.5
70% 108 Montana 21 34.0, 171 Northern Arizona 16 25.5
70% 74 Appalachian State 34 34.0, 140 Furman 27 24.2
69% 44 New Mexico 34 21.1, 61 Air Force 31 14.8
69% 4 Kansas 19 27.9, 36 Texas A&M 11 20.0
68% 14 Clemson 30 28.7, 49 Maryland 17 21.5
68% 6 Oregon 24 28.0, 11 Southern California 17 20.6
67% 199 Gardner - Webb 29 22.4, 214 Charleston Southern 25 16.3
67% 115 South Dakota State 28 33.6, 163 California - Davis 21 27.4
67% 54 Wake Forest 37 28.0, 66 North Carolina 10 22.1
67% 24 Boise State 34 36.2, 76 Fresno State 21 28.2
65% 160 Eastern Washington 38 20.3, 198 Sacramento State 30 15.3
64% 196 Eastern Illinois 38 28.6, 220 Tennessee State 35 23.1
64% 67 Illinois 28 25.9, 72 Ball State 17 20.7
63% 46 Utah 27 27.8, 83 Colorado State 3 23.2
62% 210 Bethune - Cookman 24 21.3, 228 North Carolina A&T 20 17.8
62% 197 Morehead State 16 27.6, 224 Valparaiso 14 22.1
62% 175 Iona 28 17.9, 170 Duquesne 23 14.7
62% 90 Troy State 27 27.7, 129 Arkansas State 0 23.7
60% 7 West Virginia 31 27.9, 17 Rutgers 3 25.2
56% 141 Buffalo 26 23.1, 125 Akron 10 21.9
55% 60 North Carolina State 29 17.9, 43 Virginia 24 17.1
54% 133 Louisiana Tech 31 23.0, 162 Utah State 21 22.1
52% 119 Princeton 34 21.9, 97 Cornell 31 21.6
52% 70 Delaware 59 31.7, 91 Navy 52 31.3
48% 71 Houston 34 33.2, 88 Texas - El Paso 31 33.7
47% 69 Iowa 34 23.1, 48 Michigan State 27 23.7
46% 113 Brown 31 31.4, 85 Pennsylvania 17 32.3
43% 3 Ohio State 37 17.0, 12 Penn State 17 18.3
40% 201 Weber State 73 18.3, 207 Portland State 68 20.3
40% 58 Tennessee 27 22.3, 29 South Carolina 24 24.6
40% 18 Boston College 14 17.0, 25 Virginia Tech 10 19.4
38% 134 Memphis 28 24.9, 131 Tulane 27 29.4
38% 65 Richmond 17 20.3, 68 James Madison 16 23.8
37% 136 Eastern Michigan 19 23.8, 92 Western Michigan 2 28.8
37% 112 Colgate 36 17.7, 100 Lafayette 27 22.0
37% 89 Central Florida 34 25.8, 86 Southern Mississippi 17 30.3
36% 227 Samford 59 25.9, 225 Tennessee Tech 52 30.8
35% 151 Central Michigan 41 26.4, 135 Kent State 32 32.7
35% 64 Arizona 48 23.7, 57 Washington 41 29.1
35% 37 Connecticut 22 15.1, 10 South Florida 15 20.1
33% 155 Dayton 35 28.7, 102 San Diego 16 35.5
31% 223 Saint Francis - Pennsy 35 25.9, 208 Sacred Heart 30 35.0
31% 152 Maine 20 11.7, 145 Northeastern 14 17.2
31% 51 Colorado 31 18.8, 35 Texas Tech 26 26.7
30% 184 Monmouth 51 12.6, 173 Central Connecticut 36 18.9
29% 130 Ohio 38 29.7, 110 Bowling Green 27 38.4
28% 212 Howard 17 24.8, 194 Norfolk State 10 33.8
28% 183 Delaware State 17 13.0, 154 South Carolina State 16 21.1
25% 109 Washington State 27 22.0, 40 California - Los Angel 7 32.5
24% 156 Northeast Louisiana 33 20.2, 121 Florida Atlantic 30 30.7
20% 32 Georgia 42 20.4, 1 Florida 30 34.8
19% 231 Northern Colorado 16 7.5, 177 Montana State 13 24.0
18% 178 Western Illinois 27 12.0, 103 Illinois State 14 28.5
15% 87 Mississippi State 31 18.6, 19 Kentucky 14 37.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.90 34 0.85 28 1.10 25 1.00 4 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 103 73 74.6 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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