prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 5 Oklahoma 52 42.8, 121 Baylor 21 8.5
91% 162 Duquesne 51 35.9, 236 La Salle 8 3.3
91% 85 Northern Iowa 68 37.6, 229 Indiana State 14 2.9
91% 3 Louisiana State 58 47.8, 141 Louisiana Tech 10 7.3
90% 68 Appalachian State 79 46.2, 198 Western Carolina 35 18.5
90% 13 Penn State 31 38.0, 163 Temple 0 8.6
88% 140 Liberty 73 41.4, 225 Virginia Military 34 17.5
88% 19 Boise State 52 42.7, 161 Utah State 0 18.5
86% 120 South Dakota State 52 36.3, 200 Southern Utah 27 16.2
86% 81 Navy 74 53.4, 207 North Texas 62 31.9
84% 97 Colgate 45 35.6, 205 Georgetown 12 16.8
82% 60 Central Florida 45 33.1, 167 Alabama - Birmingham 31 16.9
81% 194 Tennessee - Martin 76 37.7, 231 Murray State 34 21.3
81% 149 McNeese State 27 39.9, 219 Northwestern State 21 19.9
80% 169 Hampton 30 33.5, 214 Florida A&M 15 18.1
80% 32 Hawaii 37 44.3, 88 Fresno State 30 29.9
80% 10 Missouri 40 34.8, 57 Texas A&M 26 18.8
79% 119 Dayton 34 31.5, 210 Drake 27 13.9
79% 113 Montana 27 40.7, 218 Idaho State 14 21.8
79% 36 Rutgers 41 30.7, 137 Army 6 14.1
79% 9 Arizona State 24 31.8, 79 California - Los Angel 20 18.5
78% 49 Iowa 21 28.2, 100 Minnesota 16 16.0
78% 8 Virginia Tech 40 16.9, 28 Florida State 21 6.7
77% 168 South Carolina State 28 24.9, 204 Morgan State 21 14.1
77% 62 Harvard 23 19.8, 104 Pennsylvania 7 8.7
77% 22 South Florida 41 27.1, 98 Syracuse 10 15.4
76% 186 Davidson 44 40.0, 223 Valparaiso 6 26.6
76% 73 James Madison 55 37.4, 157 William & Mary 34 26.4
76% 16 Clemson 44 26.7, 43 Wake Forest 10 16.1
75% 7 West Virginia 38 36.1, 27 Louisville 31 23.6
75% 2 Florida 51 36.1, 42 South Carolina 31 23.2
74% 187 Delaware State 28 21.1, 201 Norfolk State 21 13.1
74% 114 Southern Illinois 34 34.7, 153 Illinois State 24 24.3
74% 94 Lehigh 38 23.2, 160 Bucknell 10 14.7
74% 41 Utah 50 24.6, 77 Wyoming 0 15.4
73% 177 Sam Houston State 20 28.1, 221 Southeast Louisiana 16 19.6
73% 166 Eastern Kentucky 28 29.9, 217 Austin Peay 14 20.4
72% 196 Robert Morris 41 29.6, 220 Sacred Heart 31 20.1
72% 132 Youngstown State 31 19.1, 152 Western Illinois 24 11.7
72% 1 Kansas 43 38.8, 40 Oklahoma State 28 26.4
71% 134 San Jose State 51 26.5, 158 New Mexico State 17 18.6
71% 90 Villanova 14 28.7, 156 Towson 12 20.4
71% 74 North Dakota State 31 32.4, 142 California Poly 28 23.6
71% 51 North Carolina State 31 22.2, 78 North Carolina 27 15.1
70% 115 Wofford 42 32.1, 172 Tennessee - Chattanoog 16 24.5
69% 118 Albany 21 23.3, 180 Monmouth 3 16.0
69% 50 Yale 27 18.7, 109 Princeton 6 11.1
67% 232 Jacksonville 24 25.7, 235 Butler 16 18.9
67% 18 Texas 59 27.0, 26 Texas Tech 43 20.9
66% 64 Massachusetts 27 31.4, 80 New Hampshire 7 25.3
64% 188 Alabama A&M 24 24.0, 222 Alcorn State 20 18.7
64% 173 Nicholls State 52 24.5, 184 Texas State - San Marc 28 19.4
64% 91 Brown 56 37.7, 107 Dartmouth 35 32.3
63% 95 New Mexico 26 22.6, 101 Colorado State 23 18.1
63% 89 Troy State 21 26.1, 144 Western Kentucky 17 20.6
63% 63 Washington State 33 21.7, 69 Stanford 17 17.4
63% 34 Oregon State 29 24.6, 38 Washington 23 19.7
62% 131 Maine 35 19.9, 126 Rhode Island 0 16.8
62% 130 San Diego 27 29.9, 171 Morehead State 14 25.4
61% 176 Stony Brook 34 32.4, 170 Central Connecticut 7 29.6
61% 147 Northeast Louisiana 28 27.3, 146 Grambling 14 24.1
61% 143 Cornell 34 23.5, 138 Columbia 14 20.7
61% 71 Tulsa 56 35.2, 65 Houston 7 32.0
61% 23 Cincinnati 27 23.5, 21 Connecticut 3 20.5
60% 206 Sacramento State 20 18.1, 227 Northern Colorado 17 15.4
60% 117 Bowling Green 39 30.1, 150 Eastern Michigan 32 27.3
60% 61 Georgia Tech 41 19.1, 103 Duke 24 16.7
60% 11 Southern California 24 22.2, 37 California 17 19.7
59% 139 Florida Atlantic 34 27.1, 133 Arkansas State 31 24.8
58% 20 Georgia 45 18.6, 12 Auburn 20 17.0
56% 175 Coastal Carolina 17 29.1, 164 Gardner - Webb 14 27.7
56% 30 Brigham Young 27 22.7, 17 Texas Christian 22 21.5
56% 29 Kentucky 27 29.2, 45 Vanderbilt 20 28.1
55% 58 Air Force 41 18.4, 84 Notre Dame 24 17.2
53% 216 Tennessee State 38 30.4, 228 Samford 28 29.7
53% 25 Tennessee 34 35.4, 15 Arkansas 13 34.8
51% 111 Northeastern 35 17.1, 92 Hofstra 31 16.9
50% 209 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 23 18.9, 199 Southern 21 18.8
47% 215 Alabama State 20 15.5, 224 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 16.1
47% 52 Maryland 42 19.7, 31 Boston College 35 20.3
46% 99 Northwestern 31 28.7, 72 Indiana 28 29.6
44% 151 Tulane 34 31.9, 122 Texas - El Paso 19 33.2
44% 96 San Diego State 38 19.8, 108 Nevada - Las Vegas 30 21.1
42% 59 Virginia 48 18.9, 70 Miami - Florida 0 20.5
40% 154 The Citadel 42 28.8, 123 Elon 31 31.5
40% 82 Iowa State 31 17.6, 46 Colorado 28 19.9
40% 67 Nebraska 73 36.2, 35 Kansas State 31 39.5
39% 191 Montana State 50 22.9, 189 Portland State 36 26.7
39% 159 Akron 48 23.1, 124 Ohio 37 25.8
39% 39 Wisconsin 37 21.8, 14 Michigan 21 25.2
38% 213 Prairie View 30 18.7, 185 Jackson State 27 22.3
37% 54 Richmond 62 26.8, 47 Delaware 56 31.3
36% 212 Bethune - Cookman 37 21.9, 208 Howard 26 26.9
36% 181 Northern Illinois 27 20.4, 129 Kent State 20 25.6
36% 135 Rice 43 33.3, 128 Southern Methodist 42 38.2
35% 112 Central Michigan 34 29.4, 102 Western Michigan 31 35.0
34% 66 Mississippi State 17 18.3, 24 Alabama 12 24.3
33% 125 Furman 24 31.7, 105 Georgia Southern 22 38.8
32% 197 Marist 17 18.0, 183 Iona 14 26.0
31% 178 Eastern Washington 52 20.4, 155 Northern Arizona 24 28.1
29% 195 Eastern Illinois 37 17.1, 179 Jacksonville State 23 24.8
29% 83 Lafayette 31 17.4, 55 Holy Cross 21 25.7
28% 148 Marshall 26 26.7, 75 East Carolina 7 35.2
26% 53 Michigan State 48 26.3, 33 Purdue 31 35.2
20% 190 Louisiana - Lafayette 34 18.6, 127 Middle Tennessee State 24 34.9
20% 145 Memphis 29 15.4, 76 Southern Mississippi 26 30.3
16% 226 Saint Francis - Pennsy 23 9.9, 174 Wagner 20 27.9
14% 48 Illinois 28 7.1, 6 Ohio State 21 25.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
20 1.16 36 0.91 34 1.18 13 0.82 5 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 108 78 75.2 1.04
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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