prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 109 Houston 59 51.0, 235 Texas Southern 6 8.9
87% 37 Massachusetts 49 31.1, 132 Fordham 35 8.8
86% 64 Delaware 44 37.1, 180 Delaware State 7 11.6
86% 61 Richmond 31 38.2, 172 Eastern Kentucky 14 14.7
85% 1 Florida 45 41.3, 44 Florida State 12 21.9
84% 99 Southern Illinois 30 36.3, 182 Eastern Illinois 11 16.0
83% 19 Boston College 28 33.7, 86 Miami - Florida 14 15.6
80% 14 Cincinnati 52 25.7, 90 Syracuse 31 12.1
79% 102 Marshall 46 28.2, 165 Alabama - Birmingham 39 15.1
79% 82 Southern Mississippi 16 29.4, 145 Arkansas State 10 15.9
79% 67 Central Florida 36 42.5, 123 Texas - El Paso 20 29.8
79% 57 Tulsa 48 49.5, 161 Rice 43 35.4
79% 30 Texas Christian 45 34.1, 116 San Diego State 33 20.5
79% 7 Oklahoma 49 37.1, 48 Oklahoma State 17 21.8
79% 5 West Virginia 66 28.8, 36 Connecticut 21 15.8
78% 87 Western Michigan 16 27.9, 149 Temple 3 15.3
78% 63 Ball State 27 29.4, 160 Northern Illinois 21 17.1
77% 138 Florida Atlantic 55 30.6, 202 Florida International 23 19.4
76% 84 North Carolina 20 29.8, 126 Duke 14 18.7
75% 89 Troy State 45 29.9, 136 Middle Tennessee State 7 18.3
74% 18 Auburn 17 22.3, 53 Alabama 10 11.6
73% 85 New Mexico 27 25.4, 117 Nevada - Las Vegas 6 16.7
72% 94 East Carolina 35 32.3, 119 Tulane 12 23.4
72% 10 Virginia Tech 33 18.5, 52 Virginia 21 11.0
70% 9 South Florida 48 25.0, 51 Pittsburgh 37 17.6
68% 114 Northeast Louisiana 17 31.0, 169 Louisiana - Lafayette 11 24.1
67% 101 Bowling Green 37 39.5, 113 Toledo 10 33.3
67% 83 Colorado State 36 25.6, 104 Wyoming 28 18.8
67% 79 Mississippi State 17 23.8, 98 Mississippi 14 17.0
65% 120 Memphis 55 29.8, 142 Southern Methodist 52 23.9
63% 62 Appalachian State 28 34.0, 70 James Madison 27 28.9
63% 12 Georgia 31 25.9, 43 Georgia Tech 17 21.6
61% 68 Northern Iowa 38 29.3, 74 New Hampshire 35 25.6
61% 24 Brigham Young 17 20.7, 22 Utah 10 17.6
59% 152 Utah State 24 22.0, 179 Idaho 19 19.8
58% 17 Tennessee 52 35.0, 40 Kentucky 50 33.2
57% 32 Hawaii 39 35.2, 21 Boise State 27 33.5
54% 13 Clemson 23 21.3, 27 South Carolina 21 20.6
53% 115 Central Michigan 35 30.2, 140 Akron 32 29.6
52% 55 Maryland 37 22.0, 75 North Carolina State 0 21.6
49% 127 Ohio 38 21.0, 108 Miami - Ohio 29 21.2
48% 111 Wofford 23 24.7, 121 Montana 22 25.0
43% 49 Wake Forest 31 20.6, 56 Vanderbilt 17 22.1
41% 93 Fresno State 45 31.3, 59 Kansas State 29 33.6
41% 54 Colorado 65 26.9, 28 Nebraska 51 29.5
40% 156 Eastern Washington 44 19.1, 164 McNeese State 15 21.2
40% 130 San Jose State 27 27.6, 95 Nevada - Reno 24 30.4
39% 158 Buffalo 30 19.5, 159 Kent State 23 22.8
39% 8 Southern California 44 17.8, 11 Arizona State 24 20.5
38% 65 Notre Dame 21 15.5, 76 Stanford 14 19.0
37% 50 Texas A&M 38 22.6, 15 Texas 30 27.6
37% 6 Missouri 36 27.4, 3 Kansas 28 31.7
31% 60 California - Los Angel 16 24.0, 16 Oregon 0 31.2
28% 198 Southern 22 17.3, 171 Grambling 13 25.3
23% 77 Washington State 42 22.0, 39 Washington 35 33.7
22% 23 Arkansas 50 23.5, 2 Louisiana State 48 38.3
21% 197 North Texas 27 21.4, 103 Western Kentucky 26 37.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
12 0.89 17 0.92 20 1.04 7 1.18 1 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 57 40 39.8 1.01
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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