prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
83% 60 Fresno State 30 40.0, 176 New Mexico State 23 22.4
81% 66 Appalachian State 38 35.2, 136 Eastern Washington 35 19.3
80% 100 Nevada - Reno 49 38.9, 160 Louisiana Tech 10 24.3
80% 27 Brigham Young 48 35.3, 110 San Diego State 27 21.3
78% 4 Southern California 24 23.6, 24 California - Los Angel 7 10.9
74% 21 Arizona State 20 33.7, 44 Arizona 17 24.1
73% 33 Hawaii 35 40.2, 54 Washington 28 31.1
70% 89 Navy 38 38.8, 138 Army 3 31.0
64% 3 Oklahoma 38 32.7, 7 Missouri 17 27.8
62% 128 Dayton 42 20.5, 131 Albany 21 17.3
61% 36 Louisville 41 29.0, 30 Rutgers 38 25.8
60% 200 Florida International 38 28.8, 195 North Texas 19 26.1
60% 6 Louisiana State 21 36.0, 14 Tennessee 14 33.5
59% 76 Central Florida 44 37.1, 61 Tulsa 25 35.2
59% 75 Richmond 21 27.0, 102 Wofford 10 24.9
56% 13 Virginia Tech 30 20.0, 16 Boston College 16 18.8
54% 111 Central Michigan 35 30.5, 113 Miami - Ohio 10 29.7
44% 62 Delaware 39 24.9, 77 Northern Iowa 27 26.4
37% 31 Oregon State 38 18.9, 32 Oregon 31 23.4
32% 86 Stanford 20 20.5, 38 California 13 27.0
30% 105 Southern Illinois 34 20.1, 42 Massachusetts 27 28.1
22% 134 Florida Atlantic 38 21.2, 64 Troy State 32 36.7
15% 56 Pittsburgh 13 17.5, 2 West Virginia 9 42.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.46 7 0.89 7 1.12 3 0.80 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 23 17 15.7 1.08
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net