prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 19 Cincinnati 31 28.2, 95 Southern Mississippi 21 13.8
77% 7 Southern California 49 24.4, 47 Illinois 17 13.5
76% 40 Purdue 51 38.8, 107 Central Michigan 48 27.2
72% 31 Rutgers 52 27.1, 81 Ball State 30 18.1
71% 34 Texas Christian 20 31.1, 91 Houston 13 23.2
70% 26 Utah 35 34.6, 69 Navy 32 24.8
70% 24 Texas Tech 31 28.1, 61 Virginia 28 19.1
66% 64 New Mexico 23 31.6, 82 Nevada - Reno 0 25.8
66% 22 Brigham Young 17 24.8, 51 California - Los Angel 16 19.1
65% 50 Oklahoma State 49 33.2, 76 Indiana 33 27.8
64% 65 Tulsa 63 37.9, 99 Bowling Green 7 32.9
64% 32 Kentucky 35 30.7, 55 Florida State 28 25.7
64% 15 Penn State 24 24.8, 42 Texas A&M 17 19.6
64% 10 Georgia 41 33.8, 29 Hawaii 10 28.9
62% 6 Kansas 24 21.2, 8 Virginia Tech 21 17.7
61% 35 California 42 27.0, 49 Air Force 36 23.8
61% 23 Boston College 24 33.0, 36 Michigan State 21 30.2
61% 17 Oregon State 21 21.6, 37 Maryland 14 18.4
61% 16 Tennessee 21 32.6, 33 Wisconsin 17 29.4
61% 13 Missouri 38 34.4, 20 Arkansas 7 31.6
59% 53 Appalachian State 49 35.7, 60 Delaware 21 33.7
59% 39 Alabama 30 24.3, 54 Colorado 24 22.2
55% 3 Louisiana State 38 18.7, 4 Ohio State 24 17.8
50% 45 Wake Forest 24 22.2, 44 Connecticut 10 22.2
49% 132 Florida Atlantic 44 32.0, 131 Memphis 27 32.2
45% 18 Texas 52 23.6, 14 Arizona State 34 24.6
45% 11 Auburn 23 17.1, 9 Clemson 20 17.9
41% 74 Mississippi State 10 21.7, 62 Central Florida 3 23.4
40% 5 West Virginia 48 25.3, 2 Oklahoma 28 27.8
39% 21 Oregon 56 26.5, 12 South Florida 21 29.8
36% 188 Jackson State 42 22.0, 174 Grambling 31 26.7
33% 84 Fresno State 40 20.8, 52 Georgia Tech 28 27.2
23% 89 East Carolina 41 22.5, 28 Boise State 38 35.0
21% 25 Michigan 41 21.0, 1 Florida 35 35.0
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.80 16 1.28 8 1.01 1 1.25 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 34 24 21.9 1.10
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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