10 Jan 2009: Average model rankings (NCAA Div IA & IAA) for the 2008 season

Rankings determined from average of model fit over entire season.

rnk  u spd  off  def                          rnk  u spd  off  def
  1  2   7 14.7  8.4 Southern California      124 40   0 11.5  5.1 Albany                  
  2  3   7 16.5  6.9 Florida                  125 35   0 12.7  4.1 Louisiana Tech          
  3  3   7 16.7  6.4 Oklahoma                 126 23   0 12.5  4.3 Florida Atlantic        
  4  3   6 15.9  6.7 Texas                    127 29   0 12.3  4.4 Cornell                 
  5  4   6 15.1  6.7 Penn State               128 37   0 12.4  4.3 Alabama - Birmingham    
  6  5   5 13.6  7.5 Ohio State               129 23   0 12.3  4.4 Fordham                 
  7  4   5 15.7  5.9 Missouri                 130 28   0 12.4  4.3 Toledo                  
  8  7   5 14.4  6.7 Clemson                  131 15   0 12.1  4.5 North Dakota State      
  9  5   5 14.1  6.9 Alabama                  132 22   0 11.9  4.5 Middle Tennessee State  
 10  5   5 13.9  7.0 Texas Christian          133 33   0 13.3  3.5 Akron                   
 11 35   5 15.3  5.9 Georgia                  134 79   0 11.9  4.5 Dayton                  
 12  6   4 16.1  5.2 Texas Tech               135 14   0 11.4  4.9 Maine                   
 13  6   4 14.8  6.2 Florida State            136 67   0 11.3  5.0 South Carolina State    
 14 33   4 14.8  6.1 Louisiana State          137 53   0 11.8  4.6 Western Kentucky        
 15  6   4 14.3  6.5 Boise State              138 44   0 12.2  4.2 Utah State              
 16 29   4 16.2  5.0 Oregon                   139 37   0 12.1  4.3 Kent State              
 17 12   4 14.7  6.1 California               140 14   0 12.0  4.3 Furman                  
 18  7   4 15.1  5.7 Kansas                   141 41   0 12.3  4.1 Miami - Ohio            
 19 25   4 14.6  6.1 West Virginia            142 36   0 11.4  4.7 Temple                  
 20 18   4 13.5  6.8 Virginia Tech            143 51   0 12.4  4.0 San Diego State         
 21 14   4 14.7  5.9 Oregon State             144 34   0 12.0  4.3 Hofstra                 
 22 18   4 15.1  5.6 Brigham Young            145 14   0 13.2  3.3 Georgia Southern        
 23  9   4 15.7  5.1 Oklahoma State           146 34   0 11.3  4.8 Dartmouth               
 24 10   4 14.4  6.0 Boston College           147 25   0 13.3  3.2 Louisiana - Lafayette   
 25  9   4 13.2  6.9 Iowa                     148 35   0 13.0  3.3 South Dakota State      
 26  9   4 14.2  6.1 Rutgers                  149 26   0 11.7  4.4 Columbia                
 27 17   4 14.8  5.6 Arizona                  150 41   0 12.2  4.0 Southern Methodist      
 28 16   4 14.1  6.1 Utah                     151 26   0 11.9  4.1 Western Illinois        
 29 12   4 14.0  6.1 Pittsburgh               152 42   0 11.3  4.5 Monmouth                
 30 10   4 15.3  5.2 Nebraska                 153 14   0 12.2  3.8 Northeast Louisiana     
 31 10   4 16.3  4.4 Tulsa                    154 29   0 12.2  3.8 Bucknell                
 32 20   4 14.5  5.7 Mississippi              155 26   0 12.8  3.2 Eastern Michigan        
 33 10   3 13.6  6.3 South Florida            156 26   0 11.7  4.0 Stony Brook             
 34 20   3 13.4  6.3 South Carolina           157 50   0  9.5  5.8 Army                    
 35 13   3 13.5  6.3 Tennessee                158 14   0 11.9  3.9 Eastern Washington      
 36 14   3 13.5  6.2 Wake Forest              159 41   0 11.6  4.1 Tulane                  
 37 31   3 13.4  6.1 Arizona State            160 47   0 12.2  3.6 Central Connecticut     
 38 10   3 13.4  6.2 Georgia Tech             161 60   0 10.6  4.7 Grambling               
 39 10   3 13.4  6.1 Connecticut              162 40   0 11.5  4.0 Florida International   
 40 14   3 13.7  5.9 Cincinnati               163 13   0 11.1  4.3 Rhode Island            
 41 10   3 14.1  5.5 North Carolina           164 36   0 12.2  3.4 McNeese State           
 42 26   3 14.2  5.4 Miami - Florida          165 41   0 12.1  3.5 New Mexico State        
 43 31   3 14.4  5.2 Arkansas                 166 24   0 11.7  3.7 Towson                  
 44 29   3 14.1  5.4 Michigan State           167 36   0 11.8  3.6 Weber State             
 45 50   3 12.1  6.9 Auburn                   168 21  -1 12.7  2.9 The Citadel             
 46 19   3 12.7  6.4 Virginia                 169 13  -1 11.1  4.1 Gardner - Webb          
 47 42   3 14.0  5.5 Wisconsin                170 37  -1 11.6  3.6 Hampton                 
 48 11   3 15.4  4.4 Houston                  171 67  -1 11.3  3.9 Southern                
 49 33   3 14.6  5.0 Navy                     172 28  -1 11.1  4.1 Northeastern            
 50 14   3 13.2  6.0 Maryland                 173 36  -1 11.5  3.7 Duquesne                
 51 11   3 15.0  4.6 Kansas State             174 51  -1 10.6  4.4 Samford                 
 52 24   3 13.9  5.4 North Carolina State     175 44  -1 10.9  4.1 Robert Morris           
 53 20   3 13.0  6.1 Vanderbilt               176 14  -1 11.6  3.6 Jacksonville State      
 54 43   3 13.5  5.7 Harvard                  177 46  -1 11.9  3.3 California - Davis      
 55 21   3 13.4  5.8 Northwestern             178 74  -1 10.2  4.5 Prairie View            
 56 23   3 14.3  5.1 James Madison            179 15  -1 11.4  3.6 Youngstown State        
 57 12   3 13.9  5.3 Purdue                   180 15  -1 12.2  3.0 Illinois State          
 58 36   3 13.3  5.8 Notre Dame               181 27  -1 11.4  3.6 Bethune - Cookman       
 59 35   2 14.1  5.1 Stanford                 182 15  -1 10.6  4.1 Eastern Kentucky        
 60 46   2 11.7  6.6 Yale                     183 15  -1 11.5  3.5 Northern Arizona        
 61 12   2 13.5  5.4 Southern Mississippi     184 14  -1 11.7  3.2 Tennessee State         
 62 42   2 13.6  5.3 Air Force                185 67  -1 10.0  4.5 Drake                   
 63 52   2 13.2  5.5 Michigan                 186 82  -1 10.9  3.8 Morehead State          
 64 30   2 13.5  5.3 Baylor                   187 14  -1 10.7  3.9 Montana State           
 65 43   2 13.1  5.6 California - Los Angeles 188 14  -1 10.8  3.7 Coastal Carolina        
 66 44   2 13.6  5.2 Kentucky                 189 **  -1 11.0  3.6 Jacksonville            
 67 13   2 13.4  5.2 Ball State               190 32  -1 10.2  4.1 Delaware State          
 68 16   2 13.6  5.1 Troy State               191 45  -1 11.4  3.2 Sacred Heart            
 69 20   2 13.1  5.4 East Carolina            192 72  -1 11.8  2.9 Davidson                
 70 13   2 13.7  4.9 Illinois                 193 45  -1 11.7  3.0 Florida A&M             
 71 13   2 14.2  4.6 Appalachian State        194 37  -1 11.7  2.9 Sam Houston State       
 72 25   2 13.0  5.5 Richmond                 195 21  -1 11.9  2.8 Tennessee - Martin      
 73 23   2 12.8  5.6 Duke                     196 69  -1 12.3  2.5 Texas State - San Marcos
 74 25   2 15.0  3.9 Nevada - Reno            197 13  -2 10.4  3.8 Eastern Illinois        
 75 40   2 14.6  4.2 Holy Cross               198 78  -2 10.6  3.7 Marist                  
 76 19   2 12.3  5.9 New Mexico               199 30  -2 11.3  3.1 Idaho                   
 77 54   2 14.3  4.3 Louisville               200 42  -2 10.8  3.5 Jackson State           
 78 46   2 14.1  4.5 Hawaii                   201 61  -2 12.7  2.0 Virginia Military       
 79 14   2 13.0  5.3 Colorado                 202 28  -2  9.6  4.3 Georgetown              
 80 33   2 13.8  4.7 Texas A&M                203 18  -2 10.2  3.9 Charleston Southern     
 81 25   2 14.3  4.2 New Hampshire            204 31  -2  9.8  4.1 Morgan State            
 82 46   2 13.4  4.9 Brown                    205 30  -2 10.6  3.4 Alabama A&M             
 83 21   1 13.5  4.8 Minnesota                206 55  -2 10.5  3.4 Northwestern State      
 84 48   1 11.8  5.9 Pennsylvania             207 23  -2 11.1  3.0 North Texas             
 85 23   1 15.3  3.3 Rice                     208 24  -2 10.7  3.2 Nicholls State          
 86 39   1 11.9  5.8 Lafayette                209 13  -2 11.9  2.3 Portland State          
 87 13   1 13.2  4.8 Villanova                210 31  -2 10.6  3.2 Sacramento State        
 88 35   1 12.8  5.1 Iowa State               211 35  -2 10.9  2.9 Norfolk State           
 89 45   1 12.7  5.1 Lehigh                   212 48  -2  8.9  4.5 Arkansas - Pine Bluff   
 90 38   1 13.6  4.4 Colorado State           213 12  -2 10.4  3.2 Western Carolina        
 91 61   1 13.8  4.2 Fresno State             214 16  -2  9.4  3.9 Wagner                  
 92 14   1 13.5  4.3 Wofford                  215 17  -2  9.4  3.9 Tennessee - Chattanooga 
 93 39   1 12.7  4.9 Bowling Green            216 53  -2  9.1  4.1 Alabama State           
 94 41   1 12.1  5.3 Princeton                217 49  -2 11.6  2.2 Stephen F. Austin       
 95 21   1 12.4  5.1 Marshall                 218 44  -3 10.5  2.7 Southeast Louisiana     
 96 19   1 14.1  3.7 Central Michigan         219 12  -3 10.1  3.0 Austin Peay             
 97 14   1 12.9  4.6 Western Michigan         220 92  -3 10.3  2.9 Central Arkansas        
 98 54   1 12.0  5.3 Mississippi State        221 13  -3 10.2  2.9 Southern Utah           
 99 14   1 14.1  3.7 Texas - El Paso          222 27  -3  9.7  3.3 Northern Colorado       
100 40   1 13.4  4.2 Colgate                  223 65  -3  9.9  2.9 Butler                  
101 30   1 12.2  5.1 Northern Iowa            224 11  -3 10.1  2.7 Southeast Missouri State
102 60   1 13.3  4.3 Nevada - Las Vegas       225 11  -3 11.1  1.8 Idaho State             
103 42   1 12.4  4.9 Syracuse                 226 11  -4  9.6  2.8 Alcorn State            
104 26   1 12.7  4.7 Massachusetts            227 11  -4 10.0  2.5 Tennessee Tech          
105 55   1 13.9  3.7 California Poly          228 11  -4  9.7  2.5 Howard                  
106 23   1 13.3  4.2 William & Mary           229 12  -4  9.1  2.9 Saint Francis - Pennsylv
107 40   1 11.9  5.2 Montana                  230 10  -4 10.0  2.1 Murray State            
108 26   1 11.8  5.3 Northern Illinois        231 10  -4 10.2  1.9 Mississippi Valley State
109 16   1 12.8  4.5 Arkansas State           232  9  -4  9.6  2.4 Iona                    
110 75   1 12.3  4.9 Washington               233 31  -4  9.7  2.1 Valparaiso              
111 75   0 12.0  5.0 Washington State         234 52  -4  7.9  3.5 Bryant                  
112 27   0 13.2  4.2 Buffalo                  235  8  -4  8.3  3.1 North Carolina A&T      
113 43   0 12.6  4.5 Ohio                     236 32  -5  8.8  2.5 Missouri State          
114 58   0 11.7  5.2 Central Florida          237 18  -5  8.1  3.0 Savannah State          
115 40   0 12.9  4.2 Indiana                  238 26  -5  9.0  2.2 South Dakota            
116 30   0 11.5  5.2 Delaware                 239 13  -5  9.7  1.5 Texas Southern          
117 29   0 13.0  4.1 Memphis                  240 25  -5  9.1  2.0 North Dakota            
118 19   0 12.3  4.6 Southern Illinois        241 46  -5  7.9  2.9 Winston-Salem           
119 35   0 11.0  5.6 San Jose State           242  5  -5  8.1  2.6 Indiana State           
120 64   0 12.5  4.4 Liberty                  243 11  -5  8.8  2.0 Presbyterian            
121 72   0 13.3  3.8 San Diego                244 15  -6  8.2  1.9 North Carolina Central  
122 65   0 11.1  5.4 Wyoming                  245  4  -7  5.2  2.4 Campbell                
123 23   0 11.9  4.8 Elon                    

KEY:
  rnk - rank based on how may games the given team would win if it
        played all other teams.

    u - uncertainty in rank (e.g. u=1 would mean rank uncertain by
        approximately 1 place, u=** for uncertainty greater than 99 places).

  spd - average margin of victory divided by 5 if the given team
        played all other teams.

  off - model offensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards of offense per down in a model simulation.

  def - model defensive power, which roughly corresponds to average
        yards per down that the defense moves the offense back
        in a model simulation.

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