prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
87% 8 Kansas 40 45.0, 229 Florida International 10 12.0
85% 3 Oklahoma 57 42.0, 196 Tennessee - Chattanoog 2 14.4
83% 29 North Dakota State 41 37.2, 211 Austin Peay 6 14.3
82% 76 Wofford 38 38.0, 237 Presbyterian 21 14.0
82% 60 Air Force 41 34.4, 208 Southern Utah 7 16.8
82% 49 Arizona 70 37.4, 222 Idaho 0 15.6
81% 32 Wisconsin 38 32.9, 180 Akron 17 15.1
80% 34 Boise State 49 40.0, 213 Idaho State 7 19.1
80% 30 Auburn 34 31.3, 160 Northeast Louisiana 0 14.5
79% 106 Southern Mississippi 51 32.1, 215 Louisiana - Lafayette 21 18.0
79% 73 Kansas State 45 39.4, 223 North Texas 6 20.1
79% 33 San Diego 40 38.8, 202 Marist 22 19.4
79% 26 Boston College 21 31.7, 178 Kent State 0 15.7
79% 22 Arizona State 30 35.5, 163 Northern Arizona 13 19.8
79% 20 South Florida 56 33.8, 158 Tennessee - Martin 7 18.4
79% 4 Ohio State 43 28.5, 79 Youngstown State 0 14.1
78% 186 Eastern Michigan 52 32.7, 243 Indiana State 0 19.4
78% 129 Miami - Florida 52 31.4, 225 Charleston Southern 7 16.6
78% 28 Penn State 66 30.4, 136 Coastal Carolina 10 17.4
78% 14 Cincinnati 40 31.9, 114 Eastern Kentucky 7 18.7
77% 141 Central Connecticut 42 34.0, 232 Bryant 35 17.2
77% 56 Georgia Tech 41 30.2, 155 Jacksonville State 14 18.2
77% 16 Georgia 45 32.0, 105 Georgia Southern 21 19.2
77% 12 Texas 52 35.6, 148 Florida Atlantic 10 19.2
77% 1 Missouri 52 32.5, 59 Illinois 42 20.1
76% 204 Jacksonville 20 31.1, 244 Savannah State 7 17.3
76% 40 Arkansas 28 30.2, 134 Western Illinois 24 18.9
76% 15 Texas Tech 49 32.9, 98 Eastern Washington 24 20.9
76% 2 West Virginia 48 32.2, 51 Villanova 21 20.6
74% 157 Prairie View 34 27.8, 240 Texas Southern 14 17.6
74% 10 Oregon 44 32.6, 67 Washington 10 23.2
73% 169 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 28.5, 217 Utah State 17 19.3
73% 48 South Carolina 34 26.8, 107 North Carolina State 0 18.4
71% 74 Tulsa 45 32.7, 203 Alabama - Birmingham 22 23.5
69% 142 Wyoming 21 27.1, 184 Ohio 20 20.1
69% 139 Mississippi 41 28.1, 175 Memphis 24 21.2
69% 138 Northwestern 30 26.1, 174 Syracuse 10 19.3
69% 13 Massachusetts 28 25.8, 57 Albany 16 18.1
69% 6 Florida 56 37.4, 41 Hawaii 10 28.7
68% 154 Minnesota 31 30.4, 190 Northern Illinois 27 23.5
68% 68 Nebraska 47 31.7, 122 Western Michigan 24 24.0
68% 5 Louisiana State 41 31.6, 19 Appalachian State 13 24.4
67% 27 Richmond 28 29.4, 133 Elon 10 22.8
66% 61 Wake Forest 41 26.9, 159 Baylor 13 21.2
66% 37 Oklahoma State 39 30.2, 95 Washington State 13 24.5
66% 7 Southern California 52 24.7, 66 Virginia 7 18.5
65% 88 Vanderbilt 34 25.1, 183 Miami - Ohio 13 19.7
64% 128 Central Michigan 31 30.7, 147 Eastern Illinois 12 25.6
64% 99 Navy 41 29.4, 124 Towson 13 24.7
64% 91 Iowa 46 20.3, 110 Maine 3 15.6
63% 101 Indiana 31 27.1, 117 Western Kentucky 13 23.1
62% 104 Ball State 48 25.0, 112 Northeastern 14 21.6
62% 103 North Carolina 35 25.8, 113 McNeese State 27 22.3
62% 87 Colorado 38 25.2, 132 Colorado State 17 21.7
62% 84 Troy State 31 26.7, 161 Middle Tennessee State 17 23.1
62% 70 Hampton 17 29.5, 121 Jackson State 13 25.1
62% 17 Brigham Young 41 25.5, 24 Northern Iowa 17 22.0
61% 78 Central Florida 17 26.7, 82 South Carolina State 0 23.1
61% 64 Connecticut 35 22.9, 63 Hofstra 3 19.9
61% 44 California 38 29.7, 50 Michigan State 31 26.1
60% 195 Rice 56 31.9, 192 Southern Methodist 27 29.0
60% 127 Houston 55 27.0, 120 Southern 3 24.3
59% 55 California - Los Angel 27 25.1, 35 Tennessee 24 23.4
59% 46 Texas Christian 26 22.1, 102 New Mexico 3 19.9
58% 100 California Poly 29 29.0, 164 San Diego State 27 27.0
56% 191 Buffalo 42 29.6, 176 Texas - El Paso 17 28.3
55% 212 Tennessee Tech 28 24.8, 199 Gardner - Webb 12 23.8
55% 193 Florida A&M 30 21.3, 168 Alabama State 20 20.3
50% 69 Maryland 14 24.5, 36 Delaware 7 24.5
49% 118 Stony Brook 42 24.8, 81 Colgate 26 25.0
48% 140 Nevada - Reno 49 25.7, 96 Grambling 13 26.1
47% 182 San Jose State 13 23.5, 144 California - Davis 10 24.0
46% 150 Rhode Island 27 22.2, 111 Monmouth 24 23.0
41% 152 Marshall 35 24.9, 92 Illinois State 10 26.8
40% 145 Iowa State 44 23.8, 85 South Dakota State 17 26.0
39% 115 Stanford 36 21.2, 45 Oregon State 28 24.2
39% 54 Kentucky 27 29.5, 43 Louisville 2 33.1
35% 219 Temple 35 18.7, 200 Army 7 24.2
32% 62 Alabama 34 20.8, 9 Clemson 10 27.4
32% 58 Utah 25 18.2, 18 Michigan 23 24.6
31% 221 Southeast Louisiana 34 17.3, 185 Alcorn State 28 24.2
30% 89 Fresno State 24 22.1, 39 Rutgers 7 30.4
29% 209 Louisiana Tech 22 19.2, 97 Mississippi State 14 27.5
28% 172 Duke 31 20.2, 25 James Madison 7 31.0
26% 197 Tennessee State 34 21.5, 130 Alabama A&M 13 31.3
26% 108 East Carolina 27 18.8, 11 Virginia Tech 22 29.4
25% 170 Bowling Green 27 19.6, 77 Pittsburgh 17 30.9
22% 181 Arkansas State 18 18.1, 53 Texas A&M 14 32.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
13 0.97 35 1.23 33 1.07 7 1.20 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 88 69 61.0 1.13
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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