prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 185 Eastern Illinois 38 35.7, 242 Indiana State 3 5.3
92% 72 Troy State 65 42.3, 224 Alcorn State 0 4.6
92% 32 Oklahoma State 57 66.7, 237 Missouri State 13 4.1
92% 28 Texas Tech 43 48.7, 163 Southern Methodist 7 18.7
92% 6 Florida State 46 43.6, 178 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 3.0
92% 5 Louisiana State 41 49.4, 166 North Texas 3 4.4
92% 4 Penn State 55 42.4, 137 Syracuse 13 10.3
91% 134 Elon 66 39.1, 232 Presbyterian 12 8.2
91% 84 Miami - Ohio 38 37.2, 209 Charleston Southern 27 6.3
90% 71 Mississippi 34 50.5, 221 Samford 10 14.3
90% 40 Nebraska 38 49.6, 171 New Mexico State 7 19.8
89% 36 Tennessee 35 44.4, 156 Alabama - Birmingham 3 17.3
89% 34 Alabama 41 27.4, 135 Western Kentucky 7 5.7
89% 20 Michigan State 17 55.0, 142 Florida Atlantic 0 25.8
87% 87 Minnesota 35 43.3, 213 Montana State 23 13.1
87% 63 Illinois 20 56.0, 188 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 29.6
87% 30 Clemson 27 30.7, 107 North Carolina State 9 9.6
87% 15 Kentucky 20 31.2, 102 Middle Tennessee State 14 8.0
87% 8 Auburn 3 24.4, 103 Mississippi State 2 7.1
87% 2 Oklahoma 55 39.7, 70 Washington 14 18.5
86% 29 Utah 58 40.2, 151 Utah State 10 18.9
84% 184 Morgan State 49 42.3, 241 North Carolina Central 7 10.3
84% 38 Boise State 20 29.7, 100 Bowling Green 7 12.0
83% 130 Northeast Louisiana 37 34.5, 210 Alabama A&M 15 10.9
82% 120 Richmond 45 19.3, 181 Towson 14 5.5
81% 117 Georgia Southern 34 40.7, 179 Northeastern 27 25.4
81% 57 Northwestern 33 39.3, 139 Southern Illinois 7 22.6
80% 22 Texas Christian 31 32.2, 81 Stanford 14 15.6
79% 153 Hampton 38 28.0, 215 Howard 27 8.9
79% 118 Montana 46 31.4, 176 Southern Utah 10 16.4
79% 3 Oregon 32 43.8, 65 Purdue 26 25.2
78% 146 California - Davis 38 32.6, 193 Portland State 24 19.4
78% 136 Liberty 19 39.7, 230 Western Carolina 16 18.6
78% 39 Vanderbilt 38 37.8, 85 Rice 21 23.7
78% 21 East Carolina 28 28.4, 108 Tulane 24 13.2
78% 13 Iowa 17 27.5, 49 Iowa State 5 15.5
77% 201 Marist 30 26.0, 243 Saint Francis - Pennsy 22 8.4
76% 127 Western Michigan 51 35.3, 195 Idaho 28 24.4
76% 83 Lafayette 24 25.2, 192 Georgetown 6 3.7
75% 167 Eastern Kentucky 16 26.5, 204 Morehead State 8 12.7
75% 23 Missouri 69 36.8, 54 Nevada - Reno 17 25.0
73% 231 Jacksonville 52 27.0, 239 Campbell 0 14.6
73% 99 New Hampshire 51 27.7, 183 Rhode Island 43 15.7
72% 110 Marshall 17 33.9, 141 Memphis 16 25.4
71% 187 Norfolk State 27 23.8, 229 North Carolina A&T 21 8.0
71% 186 Illinois State 42 28.5, 233 Murray State 23 17.2
71% 158 Kent State 24 27.3, 191 Delaware State 3 16.8
71% 96 Buffalo 30 22.8, 123 Temple 28 15.6
71% 52 Ball State 41 32.8, 109 Akron 24 25.0
69% 74 Oregon State 45 35.7, 92 Hawaii 7 28.3
67% 207 Southeast Louisiana 31 26.0, 225 South Dakota 30 17.1
67% 78 Baylor 45 15.3, 94 Washington State 17 9.1
67% 9 Southern California 35 15.2, 12 Ohio State 3 9.8
64% 66 Duke 41 29.0, 76 Navy 31 24.1
64% 35 Brigham Young 59 29.0, 41 California - Los Angel 0 23.9
63% 26 South Florida 37 24.2, 27 Kansas 34 20.0
62% 196 Wagner 45 20.2, 214 Iona 28 11.3
62% 14 Wisconsin 13 22.6, 46 Fresno State 10 18.9
61% 37 Air Force 31 28.2, 61 Houston 28 24.8
60% 212 Southern 49 20.7, 217 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 16.8
60% 133 San Jose State 35 20.5, 119 San Diego State 10 18.5
60% 45 Connecticut 45 13.2, 31 Virginia 10 10.9
59% 150 William & Mary 52 32.7, 152 Virginia Military 17 29.1
59% 128 Albany 22 17.6, 159 Hofstra 16 16.1
59% 116 Furman 42 25.6, 155 Colgate 21 23.3
56% 161 South Carolina State 28 12.5, 169 Bethune - Cookman 19 11.1
56% 33 Virginia Tech 20 17.0, 24 Georgia Tech 17 15.9
51% 90 Toledo 41 23.6, 111 Eastern Michigan 17 23.4
51% 10 Georgia 14 21.5, 18 South Carolina 7 21.2
50% 149 Bucknell 17 25.3, 168 Robert Morris 14 25.3
46% 208 Tennessee Tech 29 20.8, 220 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 21.9
42% 125 Villanova 33 19.2, 82 Lehigh 14 22.6
42% 124 South Dakota State 24 22.5, 93 Western Illinois 22 24.1
42% 59 Notre Dame 35 14.2, 43 Michigan 17 16.2
41% 122 Dayton 23 13.0, 79 Fordham 20 16.9
40% 182 Coastal Carolina 26 23.9, 189 Monmouth 7 26.5
39% 114 Wyoming 16 15.9, 77 North Dakota State 13 18.7
38% 175 Maine 28 21.2, 140 Stony Brook 13 25.1
37% 112 James Madison 52 24.2, 68 Massachusetts 38 28.7
33% 244 Savannah State 16 8.5, 236 Winston-Salem 13 15.5
31% 91 North Carolina 44 17.7, 73 Rutgers 12 24.5
30% 199 Tennessee State 41 15.4, 172 Jackson State 18 22.9
30% 56 Southern Mississippi 27 24.3, 42 Arkansas State 24 32.9
29% 121 Central Michigan 31 25.7, 89 Ohio 28 34.7
24% 222 Gardner - Webb 31 12.8, 202 Austin Peay 15 23.0
23% 226 Northwestern State 31 20.8, 165 Grambling 19 34.9
21% 80 Maryland 35 11.4, 11 California 27 25.5
19% 69 New Mexico 36 10.5, 7 Arizona 28 25.4
12% 106 Nevada - Las Vegas 23 14.2, 19 Arizona State 20 38.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 1.06 18 1.04 27 1.08 19 1.04 10 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 89 70 65.8 1.06
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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