prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 82 Appalachian State 48 57.5, 241 Presbyterian 14 9.8
92% 6 Louisiana State 34 34.7, 115 Mississippi State 24 3.9
91% 89 Eastern Washington 45 52.6, 220 Idaho State 31 22.9
91% 18 Boston College 42 43.6, 173 Rhode Island 0 7.9
90% 128 The Citadel 34 43.2, 226 Western Carolina 14 17.6
90% 38 Utah 37 41.5, 177 Weber State 21 10.9
90% 24 Kansas State 45 49.4, 153 Louisiana - Lafayette 37 22.5
89% 5 Penn State 38 41.5, 70 Illinois 24 17.9
88% 8 Texas 52 38.4, 74 Arkansas 10 16.6
87% 9 Ohio State 34 34.6, 95 Minnesota 21 9.0
86% 176 Eastern Kentucky 13 27.0, 229 Austin Peay 10 7.3
86% 66 Texas A&M 21 20.1, 171 Army 17 3.3
86% 59 Ball State 41 34.3, 155 Kent State 20 14.2
86% 42 Tulsa 62 54.4, 214 Central Arkansas 34 13.4
85% 106 Furman 35 33.1, 192 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 12.4
85% 35 South Carolina 26 32.2, 126 Alabama - Birmingham 13 10.4
85% 17 West Virginia 27 32.4, 96 Marshall 3 12.9
84% 100 Elon 23 32.8, 191 Samford 17 11.3
84% 46 Kentucky 41 27.2, 120 Western Kentucky 3 9.7
83% 149 San Diego State 45 37.2, 204 Idaho 17 20.7
83% 4 Oklahoma 35 29.3, 34 Texas Christian 10 11.3
82% 193 Morehead State 36 23.9, 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 21 6.9
82% 129 South Dakota State 50 40.3, 224 Stephen F. Austin 48 22.7
82% 32 California 42 36.5, 105 Colorado State 7 18.5
81% 94 Rutgers 38 28.4, 185 Morgan State 0 8.9
81% 77 Delaware 38 22.9, 143 Albany 7 9.3
80% 189 South Carolina State 43 22.6, 243 Winston-Salem 17 5.9
80% 102 Ohio 51 39.2, 184 Virginia Military 31 20.3
79% 165 Coastal Carolina 20 34.5, 237 North Carolina A&T 7 14.3
79% 98 Holy Cross 38 33.3, 190 Georgetown 14 19.3
79% 13 Auburn 14 21.6, 47 Tennessee 12 9.3
78% 221 Alabama State 47 27.8, 238 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 13.7
78% 156 Sam Houston State 49 31.0, 218 Gardner - Webb 33 17.3
78% 14 Oregon 63 35.4, 88 Washington State 14 21.0
77% 108 Tulane 34 28.4, 161 Southern Methodist 27 15.4
77% 76 James Madison 24 33.7, 163 Maine 10 21.9
76% 182 Sacramento State 41 37.8, 216 Portland State 31 25.3
76% 180 Southern 15 26.3, 230 Alcorn State 12 14.5
75% 152 Northern Arizona 25 27.5, 215 Northern Colorado 22 15.7
75% 122 Rice 77 34.5, 162 North Texas 20 24.5
75% 37 Cincinnati 17 34.3, 107 Akron 15 24.4
74% 212 Howard 49 25.3, 240 Savannah State 21 11.8
73% 225 Southeast Missouri Sta 24 24.2, 242 Indiana State 21 14.7
73% 187 Bethune - Cookman 33 30.4, 213 Norfolk State 17 20.4
72% 186 Alabama A&M 23 24.0, 231 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 17 14.2
71% 168 Davidson 38 32.3, 208 Jacksonville 35 19.3
71% 93 Central Michigan 27 36.6, 118 Buffalo 25 28.4
70% 202 Montana State 37 26.3, 222 South Dakota 18 15.9
69% 151 San Diego 43 24.5, 199 Drake 17 17.0
67% 210 Tennessee - Martin 63 31.5, 234 Murray State 38 24.4
67% 109 Lafayette 24 14.2, 131 Pennsylvania 17 6.3
67% 52 Pittsburgh 34 25.2, 113 Syracuse 24 19.3
66% 97 New Mexico 35 29.4, 158 New Mexico State 24 23.0
66% 39 Michigan State 42 23.5, 87 Indiana 29 17.4
65% 116 New Hampshire 42 36.8, 172 Dartmouth 6 30.5
64% 55 Duke 31 15.6, 58 Virginia 3 11.5
63% 217 Southeast Louisiana 38 34.4, 223 North Dakota 35 28.5
62% 53 Notre Dame 38 21.7, 54 Purdue 21 17.6
62% 44 Oklahoma State 55 27.7, 45 Troy State 24 23.7
60% 140 Jacksonville State 23 22.7, 175 Eastern Illinois 10 20.0
60% 90 Villanova 26 29.2, 83 Richmond 20 27.0
60% 84 Bowling Green 45 15.9, 127 Wyoming 16 13.2
60% 43 South Florida 41 24.4, 69 North Carolina State 10 22.1
60% 19 Florida State 39 19.6, 33 Colorado 21 16.4
58% 169 Northeastern 27 24.0, 160 California - Davis 10 22.0
55% 81 Brown 24 14.6, 67 Harvard 22 12.7
49% 124 Princeton 10 17.7, 103 Lehigh 7 17.8
46% 60 Fresno State 36 23.0, 71 California - Los Angel 31 23.9
44% 112 Western Michigan 7 20.4, 121 Temple 3 21.6
43% 130 Texas - El Paso 58 21.8, 99 Central Florida 13 23.4
42% 133 Northern Illinois 37 24.7, 148 Eastern Michigan 0 26.3
41% 198 Sacred Heart 28 22.1, 203 Marist 16 23.9
41% 27 Connecticut 26 24.1, 31 Louisville 21 26.2
39% 166 Liberty 31 15.8, 167 Youngstown State 28 19.3
38% 132 Wofford 38 29.6, 135 Georgia Southern 37 33.1
37% 144 Hofstra 43 17.4, 141 Stony Brook 3 21.3
37% 26 Virginia Tech 35 18.1, 23 Nebraska 30 22.7
36% 196 Towson 31 19.2, 150 Columbia 24 25.4
36% 117 San Jose State 20 19.7, 114 Hawaii 17 24.9
36% 85 Nevada - Reno 49 28.5, 80 Nevada - Las Vegas 27 33.2
35% 125 Colgate 31 19.2, 111 Fordham 24 25.2
35% 68 Houston 41 28.8, 56 East Carolina 24 35.1
33% 207 Central Connecticut 28 22.1, 188 Delaware State 10 29.6
33% 206 Southern Utah 34 30.5, 195 Texas State - San Marc 20 36.4
32% 181 Monmouth 34 11.4, 170 Robert Morris 26 16.9
32% 136 Southern Illinois 27 21.9, 75 Northern Iowa 24 28.3
31% 78 Stanford 35 21.3, 63 Washington 28 28.4
28% 201 Florida A&M 28 28.0, 164 Tennessee State 21 36.2
25% 119 Cornell 17 13.9, 28 Yale 14 29.5
25% 64 Michigan 27 19.0, 12 Wisconsin 25 29.2
24% 20 Alabama 41 11.3, 7 Georgia 30 21.9
23% 194 Duquesne 24 20.5, 101 Dayton 16 34.3
23% 79 North Carolina 28 17.3, 36 Miami - Florida 24 29.7
22% 61 Northwestern 22 10.5, 25 Iowa 17 21.4
22% 41 Maryland 20 16.4, 11 Clemson 17 28.7
19% 147 Memphis 29 21.6, 48 Arkansas State 17 36.2
18% 86 Navy 24 18.9, 22 Wake Forest 17 36.2
17% 178 Florida International 35 17.1, 91 Toledo 16 36.5
14% 49 Oregon State 27 12.7, 1 Southern California 21 35.5
13% 236 Bryant 24 12.6, 174 Wagner 14 38.5
9% 73 Mississippi 31 8.9, 2 Florida 30 38.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.64 28 0.77 30 0.97 26 0.95 6 0.91 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 66 74.6 0.89
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net