prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
90% 160 South Dakota State 49 41.0, 244 Indiana State 9 15.8
90% 151 Albany 27 34.7, 231 Saint Francis - Pennsy 3 9.8
90% 121 Dayton 43 35.4, 223 Valparaiso 7 11.0
90% 9 Texas Christian 54 28.6, 150 Wyoming 7 2.9
89% 79 Richmond 48 28.6, 191 Georgetown 0 6.0
89% 14 Tulsa 49 43.7, 135 Central Florida 19 18.6
88% 105 Massachusetts 42 42.9, 234 Bryant 7 8.7
87% 11 Brigham Young 42 39.6, 114 Nevada - Las Vegas 35 16.4
86% 91 New Hampshire 42 38.8, 190 Towson 14 17.4
85% 208 Jackson State 29 32.0, 239 Mississippi Valley Sta 27 14.2
85% 3 Florida 63 30.6, 52 Kentucky 5 10.8
84% 188 Marist 28 34.2, 233 Iona 7 16.6
84% 155 California - Davis 34 43.5, 235 North Dakota 21 18.4
84% 133 California Poly 69 36.3, 214 Southern Utah 41 16.6
84% 127 Liberty 42 35.8, 202 Charleston Southern 0 18.1
84% 96 Southern Illinois 23 39.2, 224 Missouri State 17 16.9
83% 85 William & Mary 34 33.7, 171 Rhode Island 24 15.7
82% 178 Bethune - Cookman 27 30.2, 241 Winston-Salem 6 11.9
82% 69 Troy State 45 37.1, 197 North Texas 17 19.2
82% 59 Ball State 38 34.8, 148 Eastern Michigan 16 16.1
80% 137 Georgia Southern 38 36.4, 221 Western Carolina 31 21.8
80% 101 Montana 41 26.9, 204 Northern Colorado 20 12.1
80% 1 Southern California 17 25.8, 18 Arizona 10 12.7
79% 78 Appalachian State 26 36.2, 141 Furman 14 22.4
79% 13 Missouri 58 31.9, 62 Colorado 0 18.1
78% 77 Navy 34 40.2, 139 Southern Methodist 7 27.7
77% 19 Boise State 33 21.3, 98 San Jose State 16 10.7
77% 2 Texas 28 34.3, 8 Oklahoma State 24 22.3
76% 166 Drake 20 30.1, 199 Davidson 17 19.6
76% 103 Northern Iowa 21 24.9, 185 Youngstown State 20 14.7
75% 82 Fresno State 30 31.1, 161 Utah State 28 21.4
75% 76 Northern Illinois 16 24.1, 106 Bowling Green 13 15.1
75% 29 Nebraska 32 28.1, 66 Baylor 20 17.6
75% 4 Oklahoma 58 37.1, 42 Kansas State 35 27.5
74% 46 Maryland 27 26.4, 75 North Carolina State 24 17.5
74% 28 California 41 29.4, 60 California - Los Angel 20 19.7
73% 211 Portland State 36 40.4, 227 Idaho State 13 32.6
72% 97 Brown 27 27.2, 136 Cornell 7 18.5
70% 118 North Dakota State 25 28.9, 181 Illinois State 7 21.1
70% 51 Harvard 24 25.4, 119 Princeton 20 18.0
69% 113 Mississippi State 31 21.3, 128 Middle Tennessee State 22 15.1
69% 20 Florida State 30 24.1, 33 Virginia Tech 20 17.5
68% 218 Austin Peay 31 22.2, 226 Tennessee Tech 28 16.2
68% 37 Miami - Florida 16 23.0, 58 Wake Forest 10 16.2
67% 179 Eastern Kentucky 20 23.4, 187 Eastern Illinois 7 17.8
67% 138 Army 14 17.9, 149 Louisiana Tech 7 12.8
67% 34 Wisconsin 27 29.5, 47 Illinois 17 23.3
67% 23 West Virginia 34 18.7, 27 Auburn 17 13.9
64% 156 Monmouth 30 24.2, 164 Central Connecticut 20 19.7
64% 147 Maine 20 24.9, 154 Northeastern 0 19.8
64% 111 Colgate 52 32.5, 159 Bucknell 28 27.2
64% 80 Holy Cross 35 31.4, 86 Lehigh 21 26.5
63% 84 Hawaii 38 34.8, 89 Nevada - Reno 31 30.1
62% 130 Delaware 17 19.1, 172 Hofstra 0 15.2
62% 81 Lafayette 48 21.8, 132 Fordham 13 18.4
62% 50 Connecticut 40 22.1, 48 Cincinnati 16 18.5
61% 220 Central Arkansas 28 29.9, 222 Southeast Louisiana 21 26.1
61% 194 Florida A&M 31 29.1, 219 Norfolk State 28 26.5
61% 173 Gardner - Webb 34 28.9, 174 Virginia Military 27 25.0
61% 123 Colorado State 38 27.3, 163 San Diego State 34 24.2
60% 61 Notre Dame 33 22.4, 92 Washington 7 20.0
58% 36 Louisville 24 29.0, 30 South Florida 20 27.3
57% 93 Rice 42 33.5, 129 Tulane 17 32.1
57% 57 James Madison 23 26.8, 83 Villanova 19 25.4
55% 26 Oregon 54 28.8, 45 Arizona State 20 27.8
53% 217 Butler 31 18.3, 203 Morehead State 21 17.9
53% 196 Tennessee - Martin 31 24.7, 180 Jacksonville State 30 24.0
53% 7 Georgia 52 26.4, 16 Louisiana State 38 25.9
52% 167 Stony Brook 28 20.5, 182 Coastal Carolina 24 20.1
52% 90 Central Michigan 24 28.2, 115 Toledo 23 27.8
52% 35 Michigan State 35 21.7, 63 Michigan 21 21.2
51% 209 Alabama A&M 17 19.3, 212 Alabama State 16 19.1
51% 183 Robert Morris 35 18.5, 207 Wagner 3 18.2
51% 70 Air Force 23 20.5, 49 New Mexico 10 20.2
50% 165 Columbia 21 18.1, 140 Dartmouth 13 18.1
49% 198 Montana State 31 19.9, 216 Sacramento State 20 20.1
49% 192 Texas State - San Marc 62 39.4, 210 Stephen F. Austin 21 39.5
48% 120 Florida Atlantic 29 23.0, 144 Northeast Louisiana 28 23.5
47% 5 Penn State 13 15.7, 6 Ohio State 6 16.3
44% 146 Temple 14 17.5, 109 Ohio 10 18.6
44% 74 Texas A&M 49 22.7, 87 Iowa State 35 24.0
43% 99 Wofford 55 23.0, 116 Elon 20 24.3
43% 10 Texas Tech 63 30.9, 24 Kansas 21 32.2
42% 193 Morgan State 20 17.8, 169 Delaware State 3 19.2
41% 205 Northwestern State 24 24.9, 176 Sam Houston State 16 27.2
41% 189 Samford 28 22.9, 162 The Citadel 10 24.8
40% 236 North Carolina A&T 21 20.3, 225 Howard 20 22.8
40% 195 Prairie View 24 16.9, 177 Southern 23 19.0
40% 186 South Carolina State 35 21.0, 152 Hampton 13 23.6
40% 15 Alabama 29 18.8, 25 Tennessee 9 20.8
37% 54 North Carolina 45 22.8, 21 Boston College 24 27.0
36% 125 Memphis 36 22.4, 73 Southern Mississippi 30 27.8
36% 71 Minnesota 17 25.9, 64 Purdue 6 31.9
36% 43 Rutgers 54 13.2, 41 Pittsburgh 34 17.8
35% 168 Weber State 42 22.5, 158 Northern Arizona 14 27.6
35% 65 Duke 10 17.0, 56 Vanderbilt 7 21.8
33% 55 Mississippi 23 27.3, 44 Arkansas 21 33.5
31% 40 Virginia 24 13.6, 31 Georgia Tech 17 19.6
30% 104 Indiana 21 19.9, 38 Northwestern 19 28.0
29% 143 Kent State 54 18.4, 117 Miami - Ohio 21 25.8
28% 206 Idaho 20 26.9, 145 New Mexico State 14 35.9
27% 201 Sacred Heart 29 23.3, 175 Duquesne 17 32.0
25% 230 Southeast Missouri Sta 27 24.1, 184 Tennessee State 20 33.6
24% 200 Jacksonville 30 22.2, 110 San Diego 29 34.6
22% 240 Texas Southern 30 17.3, 229 Alcorn State 29 29.4
21% 100 Pennsylvania 9 8.8, 67 Yale 7 19.4
18% 213 Nicholls State 38 17.9, 142 McNeese State 35 36.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
26 0.99 33 0.99 26 0.97 20 1.12 2 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 75 73.8 1.02
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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