prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 127 North Dakota State 34 42.6, 242 Indiana State 7 4.5
92% 1 Southern California 56 35.3, 99 Washington 0 3.0
91% 201 Davidson 49 37.6, 245 Campbell 0 10.2
91% 104 California Poly 49 48.7, 229 Idaho State 10 19.5
90% 122 Southern Illinois 40 44.0, 235 North Dakota 21 10.8
89% 174 Bethune - Cookman 24 33.0, 234 North Carolina A&T 14 11.0
89% 17 Louisiana State 35 39.3, 138 Tulane 10 13.2
89% 8 Oklahoma State 59 39.4, 95 Iowa State 17 16.5
87% 134 Maine 55 39.0, 230 Iona 7 12.4
86% 22 Boise State 49 36.1, 149 New Mexico State 0 16.4
85% 182 Southern 31 28.2, 232 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 24 10.6
85% 98 Lehigh 33 27.1, 212 Georgetown 13 9.0
84% 74 Holy Cross 34 42.6, 162 Bucknell 17 24.6
84% 18 Alabama 35 31.5, 91 Arkansas State 0 13.6
83% 165 Grambling 35 33.4, 236 Mississippi Valley Sta 14 17.1
83% 79 Yale 27 24.4, 154 Columbia 12 8.3
83% 10 Texas Christian 44 34.1, 109 Nevada - Las Vegas 14 17.2
82% 16 Brigham Young 45 35.3, 117 Colorado State 42 19.6
81% 51 Harvard 35 27.4, 148 Dartmouth 7 13.3
80% 158 South Dakota State 43 37.1, 223 Missouri State 13 18.9
80% 102 San Jose State 30 29.2, 204 Idaho 24 15.3
79% 193 Eastern Illinois 34 32.9, 226 Murray State 6 18.7
79% 175 Jacksonville State 35 29.2, 220 Austin Peay 22 16.1
79% 130 Fordham 45 28.3, 197 Marist 21 13.2
79% 92 New Hampshire 45 34.8, 163 Hofstra 25 19.0
79% 71 Navy 33 26.9, 141 Temple 27 13.2
79% 45 James Madison 41 25.6, 101 Delaware 7 12.3
79% 4 Oklahoma 62 36.2, 23 Nebraska 28 22.7
78% 113 Montana 45 26.7, 164 Northern Arizona 10 15.3
78% 97 Western Michigan 31 35.6, 145 Eastern Michigan 10 23.0
78% 5 Missouri 31 33.9, 61 Baylor 28 20.9
77% 205 Morehead State 44 27.0, 228 Valparaiso 10 16.0
77% 157 Weber State 31 34.6, 203 Portland State 21 22.6
77% 105 William & Mary 34 31.4, 187 Towson 14 20.1
77% 12 Oregon State 27 29.8, 46 Arizona State 25 18.5
76% 200 Tennessee State 41 31.0, 224 Tennessee Tech 14 19.5
76% 195 Nicholls State 20 31.7, 225 Central Arkansas 17 18.8
76% 185 Sacred Heart 42 25.1, 217 Wagner 20 15.4
76% 125 Louisiana - Lafayette 49 30.9, 159 Florida International 20 20.8
76% 78 Southern Mississippi 70 32.5, 124 Alabama - Birmingham 14 21.6
75% 96 Massachusetts 49 29.9, 171 Rhode Island 0 20.6
74% 87 Villanova 20 26.7, 167 Northeastern 14 17.7
74% 67 Air Force 16 20.3, 142 Army 7 11.3
72% 68 Stanford 58 24.9, 93 Washington State 0 16.9
71% 192 Sam Houston State 34 34.8, 213 Stephen F. Austin 31 25.7
71% 2 Florida 49 30.5, 7 Georgia 10 22.0
70% 161 McNeese State 24 34.5, 218 Southeast Louisiana 14 26.6
70% 112 Bowling Green 45 24.6, 135 Kent State 30 17.5
70% 64 Texas A&M 24 27.0, 83 Colorado 17 19.6
69% 189 Montana State 20 23.9, 208 Northern Colorado 7 16.5
69% 69 East Carolina 13 28.0, 133 Central Florida 10 20.8
67% 28 Kansas 52 34.6, 38 Kansas State 21 28.5
65% 146 Albany 35 20.7, 155 Monmouth 17 16.2
65% 77 Appalachian State 70 31.6, 90 Wofford 24 26.2
64% 209 Alabama State 24 20.1, 233 Alcorn State 17 16.1
62% 183 Eastern Kentucky 29 24.2, 216 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 20.4
62% 180 Illinois State 54 20.6, 179 Youngstown State 44 17.2
62% 150 Wyoming 35 22.7, 147 San Diego State 10 19.0
62% 54 Wake Forest 33 18.7, 59 Duke 30 15.1
62% 31 South Carolina 27 18.2, 27 Tennessee 6 15.2
61% 172 Robert Morris 27 24.0, 170 Central Connecticut 14 20.7
61% 137 Furman 28 23.0, 178 Samford 27 19.6
61% 34 Michigan State 25 26.2, 30 Wisconsin 24 22.9
60% 214 Western Carolina 27 20.4, 211 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 18.3
60% 24 California 26 34.8, 19 Oregon 16 32.6
59% 70 Purdue 48 20.7, 57 Michigan 42 19.1
57% 144 Georgia Southern 44 35.0, 176 The Citadel 41 33.8
56% 191 Jacksonville 45 24.0, 210 Butler 9 22.8
55% 80 Kentucky 14 19.5, 110 Mississippi State 13 18.5
55% 50 Mississippi 17 19.1, 32 Auburn 7 18.3
54% 20 Clemson 27 21.7, 42 Boston College 21 20.9
53% 107 Princeton 31 20.9, 139 Cornell 26 20.4
51% 40 Utah 13 21.1, 63 New Mexico 10 20.9
49% 103 Colgate 21 20.2, 73 Lafayette 13 20.3
48% 207 Charleston Southern 31 30.5, 188 Virginia Military 21 30.8
48% 62 Cincinnati 24 20.5, 39 South Florida 10 20.7
48% 47 Arkansas 30 34.8, 25 Tulsa 23 35.2
48% 14 West Virginia 35 25.9, 26 Connecticut 13 26.3
47% 41 Georgia Tech 31 21.8, 21 Florida State 28 22.4
42% 222 Norfolk State 49 25.3, 227 Howard 12 27.1
42% 53 Northwestern 24 24.6, 66 Minnesota 17 26.1
41% 190 Morgan State 13 24.8, 199 Florida A&M 10 26.9
41% 52 Pittsburgh 36 20.4, 56 Notre Dame 33 22.4
40% 168 South Carolina State 23 16.8, 184 Delaware State 17 18.7
40% 108 Northern Iowa 30 20.3, 115 Western Illinois 6 22.9
40% 88 Rice 49 39.5, 100 Texas - El Paso 44 41.3
39% 119 Dayton 30 25.4, 123 San Diego 22 28.5
39% 86 Central Michigan 37 27.3, 89 Indiana 34 30.4
39% 85 Brown 34 16.0, 94 Pennsylvania 27 18.4
39% 33 Miami - Florida 24 18.3, 37 Virginia 17 21.5
38% 55 Illinois 27 18.7, 15 Iowa 24 22.1
37% 202 Northwestern State 34 23.9, 196 Texas State - San Marc 31 28.6
36% 121 Buffalo 32 24.2, 116 Ohio 19 29.0
36% 11 Texas Tech 39 26.6, 3 Texas 33 31.6
32% 169 Gardner - Webb 34 16.4, 152 Stony Brook 33 23.0
32% 143 Northeast Louisiana 31 25.5, 81 Troy State 30 32.9
29% 151 Louisiana Tech 38 22.6, 76 Fresno State 35 31.0
29% 106 Marshall 37 23.9, 44 Houston 23 31.3
24% 156 Utah State 30 21.6, 72 Hawaii 14 31.7
23% 118 Syracuse 28 19.8, 35 Louisville 21 30.3
22% 237 Bryant 24 14.4, 181 Duquesne 10 29.8
21% 186 North Texas 51 12.7, 126 Western Kentucky 40 27.8
16% 219 Sacramento State 15 17.8, 153 Eastern Washington 13 35.4
11% 241 Winston-Salem 35 6.5, 173 Hampton 30 32.5
8% 244 Presbyterian 31 12.8, 111 Liberty 28 47.3
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
22 0.82 26 0.91 35 1.09 17 1.03 5 0.87 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 105 73 74.5 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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