prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 112 Montana 29 41.5, 226 Idaho State 10 13.4
92% 70 Northern Iowa 28 41.2, 239 Indiana State 0 6.6
92% 19 Boise State 45 42.0, 200 Idaho 10 10.7
90% 9 Alabama 32 29.7, 103 Mississippi State 7 6.5
90% 7 Penn State 34 38.6, 100 Indiana 7 13.0
89% 167 Bethune - Cookman 14 35.3, 236 Howard 12 11.9
89% 139 Albany 30 25.7, 221 Wagner 11 5.3
88% 131 North Dakota State 48 37.0, 240 Missouri State 27 11.3
87% 81 Villanova 34 34.1, 179 Towson 31 14.2
86% 174 Coastal Carolina 21 36.4, 242 Presbyterian 13 16.0
86% 31 Utah 63 34.9, 155 San Diego State 14 16.3
86% 2 Florida 56 31.3, 29 South Carolina 6 12.2
86% 1 Southern California 45 28.9, 53 Stanford 23 9.2
85% 188 Prairie View 37 23.4, 228 Alcorn State 3 7.3
85% 160 The Citadel 24 30.3, 223 Tennessee - Chattanoog 21 12.5
85% 122 San Diego 34 37.1, 217 Butler 17 15.6
85% 44 Mississippi 59 37.6, 141 Northeast Louisiana 0 17.6
85% 11 Louisiana State 40 37.0, 91 Troy State 31 17.4
84% 230 Valparaiso 47 25.1, 245 Campbell 14 9.0
83% 6 Missouri 52 36.6, 95 Iowa State 20 20.2
82% 180 Eastern Kentucky 34 30.9, 227 Murray State 7 14.5
82% 126 Fordham 17 28.8, 202 Georgetown 0 12.3
82% 59 Appalachian State 24 33.6, 135 Elon 16 17.6
81% 45 James Madison 48 35.6, 104 William & Mary 24 20.3
81% 14 Clemson 31 31.6, 76 Duke 7 15.5
81% 13 Iowa 22 28.0, 68 Purdue 17 13.5
80% 90 Fresno State 24 37.5, 156 New Mexico State 17 23.4
80% 60 Yale 14 20.9, 107 Princeton 0 9.1
80% 43 Arizona State 31 29.2, 106 Washington State 0 13.8
79% 178 Robert Morris 35 24.8, 232 Saint Francis - Pennsy 20 12.5
79% 108 California Poly 51 37.2, 177 California - Davis 28 21.3
79% 25 Wisconsin 35 30.7, 79 Minnesota 32 16.7
78% 142 Western Illinois 48 31.0, 189 Illinois State 45 18.1
78% 128 Liberty 30 29.4, 182 Gardner - Webb 10 16.6
78% 98 Texas - El Paso 36 39.3, 157 Southern Methodist 10 26.7
78% 89 Lehigh 31 31.2, 152 Bucknell 15 17.8
78% 74 Nevada - Reno 41 29.0, 129 San Jose State 17 16.5
78% 39 Ball State 31 32.8, 137 Miami - Ohio 16 19.8
77% 78 Richmond 31 23.6, 124 Delaware 14 12.5
76% 214 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 34 25.8, 231 Mississippi Valley Sta 0 16.1
76% 85 Western Michigan 27 32.7, 136 Toledo 17 21.6
74% 55 Southern Mississippi 21 27.8, 80 East Carolina 3 18.8
73% 203 Sacramento State 45 21.9, 215 Northern Colorado 25 14.5
73% 176 Montana State 49 28.7, 207 Portland State 32 20.0
73% 162 Stony Brook 40 34.8, 198 Virginia Military 26 24.9
73% 140 South Carolina State 32 24.2, 208 Morgan State 0 15.8
73% 42 Connecticut 39 27.2, 114 Syracuse 14 19.2
72% 113 Southern Illinois 38 33.1, 146 South Dakota State 35 24.1
71% 184 Southern 15 26.3, 222 Alabama State 0 17.9
71% 132 Louisiana Tech 45 26.5, 151 Utah State 38 18.7
70% 22 Oklahoma State 30 30.8, 77 Colorado 17 22.8
70% 8 Ohio State 30 23.6, 54 Illinois 20 16.5
69% 96 Nevada - Las Vegas 22 25.3, 118 Wyoming 14 18.3
69% 10 Oregon State 34 29.5, 24 California 21 22.2
68% 192 Tennessee - Martin 31 28.4, 225 Southeast Missouri Sta 21 21.9
68% 164 Eastern Washington 28 28.8, 185 Northern Arizona 13 21.8
67% 159 McNeese State 24 27.5, 210 Northwestern State 17 21.8
67% 149 Hofstra 42 23.3, 158 Northeastern 14 17.7
67% 86 New Hampshire 52 29.2, 105 Massachusetts 21 22.9
66% 194 Jackson State 37 18.8, 204 Alabama A&M 21 13.6
66% 15 Brigham Young 38 28.0, 61 Air Force 24 22.4
66% 3 Texas 35 32.4, 18 Kansas 7 26.9
65% 120 Wofford 28 27.2, 169 Samford 7 21.9
64% 171 Jacksonville State 26 32.2, 181 Tennessee State 21 27.3
64% 92 Brown 45 22.8, 150 Dartmouth 16 17.9
63% 123 Maine 37 20.5, 168 Rhode Island 7 16.9
61% 201 Texas State - San Marc 34 31.4, 199 Nicholls State 10 28.1
60% 71 Baylor 41 26.6, 63 Texas A&M 21 24.2
60% 36 Cincinnati 28 25.5, 69 Louisville 20 23.0
60% 33 Miami - Florida 16 21.4, 23 Virginia Tech 14 19.3
59% 145 Kent State 41 17.6, 138 Temple 38 15.9
59% 130 Florida Atlantic 40 30.1, 117 Louisiana - Lafayette 29 28.2
59% 72 California - Los Angel 27 22.2, 102 Washington 7 20.4
59% 30 Oregon 55 33.9, 20 Arizona 45 31.9
57% 57 Notre Dame 27 25.6, 67 Navy 21 24.0
56% 65 Harvard 24 20.0, 93 Pennsylvania 21 18.9
53% 193 Jacksonville 41 20.0, 175 Drake 9 19.4
53% 58 North Carolina State 21 21.1, 41 Wake Forest 17 20.6
52% 16 Georgia 17 19.6, 37 Auburn 13 19.2
51% 163 Central Connecticut 49 26.4, 186 Sacred Heart 14 26.1
50% 144 Columbia 17 23.8, 119 Cornell 7 23.9
49% 56 Maryland 17 23.7, 35 North Carolina 15 23.9
46% 87 Central Michigan 33 26.7, 109 Northern Illinois 30 27.5
44% 50 Vanderbilt 31 20.0, 66 Kentucky 24 21.2
44% 32 Nebraska 56 33.2, 48 Kansas State 28 34.4
43% 205 Florida A&M 45 23.5, 173 Hampton 24 24.9
43% 75 Holy Cross 27 21.6, 83 Lafayette 26 23.0
41% 197 Delaware State 34 19.9, 209 Norfolk State 28 21.7
41% 64 Houston 70 37.2, 27 Tulsa 30 39.4
40% 244 North Carolina Central 23 17.2, 238 Winston-Salem 16 19.2
40% 161 Monmouth 37 18.3, 166 Duquesne 14 20.7
40% 99 Buffalo 43 27.8, 110 Akron 40 30.0
39% 111 Colorado State 20 22.1, 73 New Mexico 6 25.0
38% 235 Bryant 23 19.1, 229 Iona 7 23.9
38% 196 Marist 24 20.4, 195 Davidson 19 24.2
34% 218 Central Arkansas 49 25.1, 213 Stephen F. Austin 41 30.9
33% 143 Middle Tennessee State 21 17.2, 121 Western Kentucky 10 22.8
33% 62 Northwestern 21 17.9, 49 Michigan 14 24.4
33% 40 Rutgers 49 15.7, 34 South Florida 16 21.1
33% 26 Boston College 27 22.9, 17 Florida State 17 29.4
32% 148 Alabama - Birmingham 41 20.4, 134 Tulane 24 27.1
29% 153 Georgia Southern 17 28.1, 133 Furman 10 35.5
26% 234 South Dakota 42 19.6, 216 Southern Utah 20 30.5
24% 125 Central Florida 30 13.3, 84 Marshall 14 23.1
23% 220 Austin Peay 15 15.1, 190 Eastern Illinois 13 25.7
23% 219 Southeast Louisiana 30 21.1, 183 Sam Houston State 27 34.1
17% 191 Morehead State 14 14.9, 115 Dayton 13 30.2
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
23 0.92 27 0.96 30 1.10 24 1.13 3 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 107 80 76.5 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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