prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 174 Morehead State 42 36.7, 245 Campbell 7 1.8
92% 1 Florida 70 61.6, 176 The Citadel 19 8.6
90% 115 South Carolina State 55 29.9, 233 North Carolina A&T 0 7.1
90% 90 Northern Iowa 34 34.2, 224 Southern Utah 24 9.8
89% 70 Appalachian State 35 39.4, 213 Western Carolina 10 17.1
87% 202 Virginia Military 49 40.4, 243 Presbyterian 27 18.7
87% 81 Hawaii 49 39.6, 189 Idaho 17 18.3
87% 37 James Madison 58 38.6, 177 Towson 27 18.7
87% 29 Rutgers 30 26.7, 145 Army 3 4.9
86% 47 Tulsa 56 42.3, 150 Tulane 7 22.1
85% 164 Grambling 33 37.8, 241 Texas Southern 7 19.1
84% 8 Ohio State 42 24.4, 57 Michigan 7 9.0
83% 137 Middle Tennessee State 52 30.7, 203 North Texas 13 14.7
80% 119 Montana 35 26.1, 182 Montana State 3 13.3
80% 24 Virginia Tech 14 26.3, 74 Duke 3 12.3
80% 23 Wisconsin 36 37.9, 102 California Poly 35 19.2
80% 10 Texas Christian 44 25.3, 61 Air Force 10 11.5
80% 5 Penn State 49 29.3, 39 Michigan State 18 15.9
79% 198 Jackson State 26 27.6, 229 Alcorn State 21 13.3
79% 34 Houston 42 42.3, 93 Texas - El Paso 37 28.6
78% 127 San Diego 28 37.3, 185 California - Davis 20 24.2
78% 84 Brown 41 27.7, 144 Columbia 10 16.5
78% 46 Kansas State 38 34.2, 85 Iowa State 30 22.1
77% 88 Troy State 48 37.1, 142 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 25.3
76% 192 Drake 32 28.3, 232 Valparaiso 0 18.6
75% 197 Davidson 46 27.0, 220 Butler 34 17.4
73% 69 Purdue 62 29.3, 94 Indiana 10 20.5
72% 209 Norfolk State 17 26.0, 238 Winston-Salem 14 17.5
72% 206 Alabama A&M 58 29.4, 237 Mississippi Valley Sta 23 21.5
72% 116 Southern Illinois 17 34.2, 187 Illinois State 10 26.1
72% 26 California 37 30.0, 52 Stanford 16 21.4
71% 107 Wofford 35 28.8, 148 Furman 10 19.7
70% 211 Portland State 24 31.6, 221 Northern Colorado 21 23.9
70% 121 Princeton 28 19.2, 147 Dartmouth 10 12.6
70% 103 Arkansas State 28 27.8, 125 Florida Atlantic 14 20.6
70% 19 Iowa 55 25.3, 79 Minnesota 0 17.9
69% 4 Oklahoma 65 37.4, 6 Texas Tech 21 30.9
68% 204 Nicholls State 35 28.8, 218 Southeast Louisiana 28 21.4
68% 9 Clemson 13 23.0, 55 Virginia 3 17.1
67% 196 Delaware State 10 24.2, 228 Howard 6 18.2
67% 110 Massachusetts 28 25.2, 133 Hofstra 14 19.0
67% 16 West Virginia 35 30.4, 64 Louisville 21 24.5
66% 100 Rice 35 35.6, 106 Marshall 10 30.2
65% 59 Northwestern 27 26.8, 66 Illinois 10 21.5
64% 146 Temple 55 23.3, 152 Eastern Michigan 52 18.6
63% 194 Eastern Illinois 38 23.5, 225 Tennessee Tech 20 19.4
63% 75 New Hampshire 28 25.8, 118 Maine 24 21.8
63% 40 South Florida 17 23.3, 42 Connecticut 13 19.2
62% 76 Richmond 23 26.9, 113 William & Mary 20 23.5
62% 31 Cincinnati 28 24.8, 30 Pittsburgh 21 21.1
62% 27 Boise State 41 27.7, 67 Nevada - Reno 34 23.9
61% 181 Hampton 17 21.4, 214 Morgan State 13 18.8
61% 130 Liberty 26 22.9, 122 Elon 3 20.0
61% 87 East Carolina 17 24.4, 136 Alabama - Birmingham 13 21.4
60% 234 Missouri State 27 19.1, 242 Indiana State 24 16.8
60% 175 Samford 30 17.5, 212 Tennessee - Chattanoog 7 15.1
60% 139 Toledo 42 25.4, 131 Miami - Ohio 14 22.6
60% 123 Ohio 49 28.2, 109 Akron 42 26.0
60% 112 Washington State 16 20.7, 108 Washington 13 18.0
60% 82 Pennsylvania 23 21.1, 135 Cornell 6 19.1
60% 60 Harvard 10 18.0, 51 Yale 0 15.9
60% 44 Georgia Tech 41 20.5, 33 Miami - Florida 23 18.3
60% 22 Florida State 37 23.3, 53 Maryland 3 21.2
59% 89 Fresno State 24 22.2, 132 San Jose State 10 20.2
55% 126 Louisiana Tech 35 27.9, 155 New Mexico State 31 26.8
54% 91 Colorado State 31 20.7, 128 Wyoming 20 20.0
54% 21 Boston College 24 20.0, 49 Wake Forest 21 19.3
52% 56 Ball State 31 29.1, 78 Central Michigan 24 28.6
49% 169 Eastern Kentucky 33 22.4, 195 Tennessee - Martin 31 22.6
49% 99 Central Florida 28 23.0, 117 Memphis 21 23.2
48% 101 Villanova 21 20.9, 120 Delaware 7 21.2
48% 17 Oregon State 19 30.7, 28 Arizona 17 31.2
47% 96 Colgate 28 32.5, 73 Holy Cross 27 33.0
46% 162 Northeast Louisiana 31 21.0, 173 Florida International 27 21.9
46% 111 Northern Illinois 42 24.8, 138 Kent State 14 25.6
45% 244 North Carolina Central 10 20.2, 239 Savannah State 7 21.2
45% 35 Utah 48 24.6, 14 Brigham Young 24 25.5
43% 163 Eastern Washington 33 23.0, 165 Weber State 26 24.5
41% 208 Northwestern State 34 27.0, 215 Stephen F. Austin 24 28.8
40% 188 Florida A&M 58 22.2, 171 Bethune - Cookman 35 24.7
40% 154 Bucknell 24 22.8, 114 Fordham 21 25.1
38% 172 Jacksonville 19 21.1, 141 Dayton 14 24.4
38% 168 Rhode Island 29 17.4, 178 Northeastern 14 20.8
37% 223 Idaho State 36 25.9, 201 Sacramento State 33 30.1
37% 199 Texas State - San Marc 48 28.3, 193 Sam Houston State 45 32.7
37% 48 Tennessee 20 16.2, 50 Vanderbilt 10 20.1
35% 98 Mississippi State 31 19.4, 45 Arkansas 28 24.2
34% 157 San Diego State 42 24.4, 95 Nevada - Las Vegas 21 30.2
33% 236 Bryant 23 13.6, 227 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 20.1
33% 105 Buffalo 40 21.5, 92 Bowling Green 34 27.8
33% 97 Lehigh 31 15.0, 86 Lafayette 15 20.2
30% 240 North Dakota 34 18.3, 231 South Dakota 31 26.4
30% 226 Southeast Missouri Sta 33 17.8, 217 Austin Peay 30 25.1
30% 151 South Dakota State 25 25.4, 124 North Dakota State 24 33.2
28% 32 Mississippi 31 22.4, 13 Louisiana State 13 30.9
25% 219 Central Arkansas 47 20.7, 159 McNeese State 30 30.8
25% 68 North Carolina State 41 20.0, 38 North Carolina 10 29.6
23% 230 Murray State 24 22.7, 184 Tennessee State 17 33.8
23% 210 Charleston Southern 24 16.7, 166 Coastal Carolina 0 27.6
22% 104 Syracuse 24 14.3, 58 Notre Dame 23 25.4
20% 190 Youngstown State 31 16.4, 129 Western Illinois 28 31.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
22 0.73 37 1.05 28 0.99 12 1.06 2 1.09 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 68 69.4 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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