prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 1 Southern California 38 31.4, 62 Notre Dame 3 4.7
90% 4 Texas 49 40.5, 72 Texas A&M 9 15.5
87% 73 Richmond 38 30.9, 176 Eastern Kentucky 10 10.2
83% 108 Montana 31 35.4, 194 Texas State - San Marc 13 16.9
83% 101 Arkansas State 33 34.8, 212 North Texas 28 18.9
83% 38 Cincinnati 30 29.1, 106 Syracuse 10 13.6
80% 25 Nebraska 40 32.4, 77 Colorado 31 18.4
80% 19 Virginia Tech 17 21.8, 66 Virginia 14 9.1
79% 30 Mississippi 45 29.1, 91 Mississippi State 0 15.0
79% 18 Texas Tech 35 36.3, 67 Baylor 28 22.5
79% 10 Alabama 36 20.0, 41 Auburn 0 9.3
79% 7 Clemson 31 24.3, 34 South Carolina 14 12.1
78% 56 Southern Mississippi 28 31.9, 149 Southern Methodist 12 20.0
78% 28 Boise State 61 29.8, 76 Fresno State 10 17.0
78% 27 Tulsa 38 35.4, 110 Marshall 35 23.3
78% 2 Florida 45 33.5, 14 Florida State 15 22.1
77% 51 James Madison 38 34.4, 97 Wofford 35 22.3
76% 213 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 28 26.7, 242 Texas Southern 7 16.7
76% 32 Tennessee 28 25.2, 64 Kentucky 10 15.2
76% 22 Boston College 28 23.5, 52 Maryland 21 14.8
75% 81 Appalachian State 37 26.6, 122 South Carolina State 21 15.4
74% 79 Hawaii 24 29.8, 113 Washington State 10 20.0
73% 60 Ball State 45 27.6, 90 Western Michigan 22 19.0
73% 40 Arizona State 34 23.9, 57 California - Los Angel 9 15.5
70% 134 Memphis 45 28.0, 159 Tulane 6 20.6
70% 123 Florida Atlantic 57 25.2, 167 Florida International 50 18.0
70% 3 Oklahoma 61 38.1, 13 Oklahoma State 41 30.4
68% 109 Northern Iowa 40 20.5, 128 Maine 15 14.2
67% 68 Nevada - Reno 35 36.1, 124 Louisiana Tech 31 30.3
65% 49 Wake Forest 23 20.5, 55 Vanderbilt 10 16.0
64% 95 Villanova 55 27.7, 99 Colgate 28 22.9
64% 85 East Carolina 53 28.7, 93 Texas - El Paso 21 23.5
62% 45 North Carolina State 38 24.9, 46 Miami - Florida 28 21.1
61% 160 Utah State 47 28.4, 153 New Mexico State 2 25.6
61% 83 New Hampshire 29 29.9, 118 Southern Illinois 20 27.2
54% 115 Ohio 41 25.3, 141 Miami - Ohio 26 24.5
54% 69 Navy 16 27.2, 92 Northern Illinois 0 26.4
52% 144 Temple 27 29.2, 121 Akron 6 28.7
49% 54 North Carolina 28 20.0, 80 Duke 20 20.1
47% 36 Pittsburgh 19 25.4, 15 West Virginia 15 26.0
44% 164 Grambling 29 18.2, 161 Southern 14 19.2
41% 98 Bowling Green 38 23.8, 112 Toledo 10 25.9
38% 88 Rice 56 38.3, 42 Houston 42 41.9
33% 53 Arkansas 31 23.1, 23 Louisiana State 30 29.1
33% 21 Kansas 40 25.2, 8 Missouri 37 30.8
33% 20 Oregon 65 29.3, 11 Oregon State 38 35.2
32% 151 Eastern Michigan 56 30.6, 86 Central Michigan 52 37.0
30% 31 Georgia Tech 45 18.8, 12 Georgia 42 26.5
28% 139 Kent State 24 22.7, 103 Buffalo 21 32.1
26% 135 Alabama - Birmingham 15 17.9, 102 Central Florida 0 26.6
18% 184 Weber State 49 21.2, 105 California Poly 35 38.1
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
7 0.79 14 0.99 22 1.14 6 1.00 2 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 51 38 36.3 1.05
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net