prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
80% 33 South Florida 41 30.5, 115 Memphis 14 16.7
78% 17 Kansas 42 32.4, 81 Minnesota 21 19.9
77% 44 Connecticut 38 29.2, 104 Buffalo 20 18.3
76% 8 Missouri 30 29.9, 51 Northwestern 23 19.3
70% 12 California 24 29.4, 46 Miami - Florida 17 22.1
69% 1 Southern California 38 19.3, 5 Penn State 24 12.6
66% 22 Rutgers 29 25.1, 48 North Carolina State 23 19.7
66% 4 Texas 24 20.5, 6 Ohio State 21 15.5
65% 16 West Virginia 31 25.1, 43 North Carolina 30 19.5
65% 15 Florida State 42 26.2, 36 Wisconsin 13 21.3
64% 50 Maryland 42 28.6, 73 Nevada - Reno 35 24.0
64% 37 Tulsa 45 35.5, 60 Ball State 13 31.2
64% 18 Georgia 24 30.8, 41 Michigan State 12 25.5
63% 91 Rice 38 37.9, 90 Western Michigan 14 34.2
63% 19 Iowa 31 18.4, 34 South Carolina 10 14.7
61% 54 Houston 34 32.0, 66 Air Force 28 29.3
61% 25 Virginia Tech 20 20.1, 38 Cincinnati 7 17.6
61% 20 Oregon State 3 27.1, 31 Pittsburgh 0 24.4
60% 10 Texas Christian 17 19.1, 13 Boise State 16 16.8
60% 2 Florida 24 32.0, 3 Oklahoma 14 29.7
59% 80 Richmond 24 20.5, 89 Montana 7 18.7
55% 92 Colorado State 40 29.3, 97 Fresno State 35 28.4
55% 14 Oregon 42 36.2, 21 Oklahoma State 31 35.2
52% 39 Wake Forest 29 23.7, 42 Navy 19 23.2
48% 64 Southern Mississippi 30 21.8, 63 Troy State 27 22.1
48% 27 Arizona 31 29.3, 24 Brigham Young 21 29.7
46% 72 Kentucky 25 21.4, 67 East Carolina 19 22.3
45% 57 Notre Dame 49 24.3, 70 Hawaii 21 25.2
42% 26 Louisiana State 38 22.9, 32 Georgia Tech 3 24.7
38% 126 Louisiana Tech 17 20.8, 100 Northern Illinois 10 24.4
38% 58 Vanderbilt 16 19.4, 23 Boston College 14 22.7
38% 28 Mississippi 47 27.5, 11 Texas Tech 34 31.2
34% 131 Florida Atlantic 24 29.6, 93 Central Michigan 21 35.1
33% 29 Utah 31 16.4, 9 Alabama 17 21.9
31% 30 Nebraska 26 22.4, 7 Clemson 21 29.5
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
9 0.81 22 1.14 4 1.29 0 0.00 0 0.00 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 35 24 22.1 1.09
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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