prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 97 McNeese State 56 65.5, 245 Savannah State 0 -0.7
92% 81 Central Michigan 48 51.4, 237 Alcorn State 0 4.3
92% 80 South Dakota State 41 48.8, 232 Indiana State 0 3.9
92% 61 Mississippi 52 45.0, 202 Southeast Louisiana 6 6.0
92% 40 South Carolina 38 42.1, 165 Florida Atlantic 16 9.4
92% 35 Oklahoma State 41 56.1, 185 Rice 24 12.2
92% 29 Penn State 31 42.2, 164 Temple 6 5.0
92% 21 Michigan 45 48.4, 167 Eastern Michigan 17 9.2
92% 14 South Florida 59 59.2, 219 Charleston Southern 0 1.0
92% 7 Kansas 44 47.6, 106 Duke 16 11.2
91% 65 Delaware 27 40.2, 189 Delaware State 17 7.1
91% 41 Northern Iowa 30 46.3, 188 Saint Francis - Pennsy 0 7.1
91% 39 Texas Christian 56 48.2, 172 Texas State - San Marc 21 11.2
91% 31 Alabama 53 47.1, 162 North Texas 7 12.3
91% 22 Texas A&M 38 47.7, 147 Utah State 30 11.8
90% 85 North Carolina State 45 33.7, 193 Gardner - Webb 14 3.8
90% 69 Rutgers 23 45.7, 199 Florida International 15 9.9
90% 8 Missouri 52 48.2, 94 Furman 12 16.3
90% 6 Louisiana State 31 50.1, 132 Louisiana - Lafayette 3 7.5
89% 66 Yale 31 36.7, 224 Georgetown 10 4.3
89% 54 James Madison 44 54.8, 217 Virginia Military 16 10.6
89% 17 Kentucky 31 44.1, 93 Louisville 27 17.3
88% 127 San Diego 17 47.4, 236 Marist 10 13.9
88% 98 North Dakota State 59 42.4, 216 Wagner 28 13.6
88% 15 Ohio State 38 46.0, 89 Toledo 0 20.3
87% 146 Georgia Southern 27 41.8, 220 Western Carolina 3 20.0
87% 50 Massachusetts 30 39.0, 129 Rhode Island 10 16.1
87% 23 Arizona State 38 40.9, 116 Northeast Louisiana 14 12.2
86% 139 Eastern Kentucky 17 39.4, 225 Tennessee Tech 7 14.3
86% 138 Northern Arizona 42 38.8, 198 Southern Utah 39 20.7
86% 117 Eastern Illinois 23 38.9, 234 Southeast Missouri Sta 14 8.4
86% 46 Richmond 47 32.6, 114 Hofstra 0 12.0
85% 222 Arkansas - Pine Bluff 27 32.1, 242 Mississippi Valley Sta 7 12.4
85% 88 Montana 49 34.9, 169 Portland State 17 14.5
85% 3 California 35 40.1, 70 Minnesota 21 19.0
84% 157 Weber State 44 39.7, 208 Idaho State 17 22.3
84% 90 William & Mary 27 37.8, 200 Norfolk State 15 16.8
84% 71 Stanford 42 31.3, 136 San Jose State 17 11.6
84% 5 Texas 34 41.0, 32 Texas Tech 24 25.9
83% 110 Western Michigan 48 25.4, 176 Miami - Ohio 26 8.3
83% 33 Air Force 37 31.5, 125 New Mexico 13 12.8
82% 191 Missouri State 35 43.5, 238 Murray State 10 19.0
82% 134 Dayton 21 32.6, 228 Robert Morris 14 14.0
82% 42 Wisconsin 44 36.7, 100 Wofford 14 17.9
81% 144 Louisiana Tech 48 30.1, 212 Nicholls State 13 10.1
81% 25 California - Los Angel 23 28.7, 64 Kansas State 9 13.0
81% 4 Oklahoma 45 39.9, 34 Tulsa 0 19.4
80% 187 Florida A&M 48 31.1, 223 Howard 10 17.7
80% 159 Illinois State 38 37.6, 229 Austin Peay 7 16.1
80% 143 Cornell 33 39.0, 196 Bucknell 9 22.1
79% 154 Hampton 24 34.5, 231 North Carolina A&T 14 18.8
79% 2 Florida 23 39.0, 18 Tennessee 13 25.2
78% 211 Old Dominion 28 31.1, 239 Jacksonville 27 18.6
78% 112 Eastern Washington 16 28.8, 177 Northern Colorado 0 12.2
78% 36 Iowa 27 20.7, 56 Arizona 17 9.3
78% 16 Oregon 31 32.4, 57 Utah 24 16.5
77% 201 Morgan State 16 27.7, 233 Winston-Salem 10 17.2
77% 87 Central Florida 23 39.3, 135 Buffalo 17 25.9
77% 38 Pittsburgh 27 39.6, 58 Navy 14 26.9
76% 141 Grambling 27 34.2, 213 Jackson State 17 22.7
76% 118 Washington State 30 38.0, 148 Southern Methodist 27 26.5
76% 91 Colorado State 35 30.1, 149 Nevada - Reno 20 15.1
75% 178 Monmouth 17 26.5, 214 Duquesne 10 14.9
73% 113 Troy State 27 33.6, 156 Alabama - Birmingham 14 20.6
72% 10 Cincinnati 28 30.5, 47 Oregon State 18 21.4
71% 51 North Carolina 31 26.3, 62 East Carolina 17 18.5
70% 194 Southern 21 27.3, 218 Tennessee State 17 19.0
70% 171 Memphis 41 33.1, 183 Tennessee - Martin 14 25.2
70% 74 Southern Mississippi 37 24.7, 95 Virginia 34 15.4
70% 20 Virginia Tech 16 30.6, 28 Nebraska 15 22.2
70% 11 Boise State 51 30.5, 43 Fresno State 34 21.8
64% 60 Wake Forest 35 27.1, 75 Elon 7 20.0
63% 180 Tennessee - Chattanoog 29 29.2, 215 Presbyterian 13 24.4
62% 175 North Dakota 27 24.1, 209 Northwestern State 20 19.6
62% 160 Texas - El Paso 38 29.4, 195 New Mexico State 12 23.9
62% 133 Youngstown State 38 22.9, 179 Northeastern 21 18.2
62% 115 Colgate 34 30.3, 142 Dartmouth 15 27.2
62% 103 Colorado 24 26.2, 108 Wyoming 0 22.2
61% 59 Notre Dame 33 30.1, 52 Michigan State 30 26.2
58% 152 Army 24 20.3, 137 Ball State 17 18.6
58% 48 Miami - Florida 33 34.0, 45 Georgia Tech 17 32.3
57% 19 Auburn 41 29.3, 12 West Virginia 30 27.9
56% 76 Villanova 14 25.2, 102 Pennsylvania 3 24.2
53% 184 Towson 21 20.1, 173 Coastal Carolina 17 19.2
49% 82 Liberty 19 22.6, 101 Lafayette 13 22.9
47% 123 Ohio 28 34.1, 99 California Poly 10 34.7
47% 111 Iowa State 34 16.5, 130 Kent State 14 17.0
46% 221 South Dakota 51 25.1, 197 Drake 21 26.1
45% 86 Indiana 38 21.0, 104 Akron 21 22.2
41% 151 Jacksonville State 45 20.0, 158 Alabama A&M 13 22.5
41% 73 Connecticut 30 18.8, 83 Baylor 22 20.5
40% 163 Central Arkansas 28 22.7, 168 Western Kentucky 7 25.8
40% 153 Idaho 34 25.3, 120 San Diego State 20 27.7
40% 26 Georgia 52 30.8, 27 Arkansas 41 34.2
40% 24 Clemson 25 25.9, 13 Boston College 7 28.1
39% 166 Albany 20 18.5, 131 Maine 16 21.4
39% 124 Syracuse 37 25.0, 84 Northwestern 34 28.9
36% 96 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 25.9, 55 Hawaii 33 30.7
33% 109 Holy Cross 27 22.5, 67 Harvard 20 30.5
31% 235 Davidson 24 23.9, 210 Campbell 7 31.0
30% 226 Morehead State 13 17.4, 206 North Carolina Central 10 25.1
30% 170 Stony Brook 21 22.1, 105 Brown 20 29.2
25% 145 The Citadel 38 19.8, 122 Princeton 7 29.7
25% 128 Marshall 17 25.4, 72 Bowling Green 10 34.5
24% 78 Mississippi State 15 14.2, 53 Vanderbilt 3 25.2
22% 186 Columbia 40 23.3, 150 Fordham 28 34.9
17% 119 Middle Tennessee State 32 17.3, 49 Maryland 31 36.1
16% 207 Stephen F. Austin 40 14.2, 155 Western Illinois 30 32.2
13% 92 Northern Illinois 28 20.4, 37 Purdue 21 38.4
13% 44 Washington 16 20.2, 1 Southern California 13 39.6
9% 77 Florida State 54 8.8, 9 Brigham Young 28 36.4
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
14 0.64 18 0.87 26 1.07 37 1.04 16 1.02 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 84 85.3 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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