prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 38 Northern Iowa 62 53.1, 239 Indiana State 7 -1.4
92% 12 Cincinnati 37 49.8, 183 Miami - Ohio 13 9.3
92% 5 Oregon 52 45.4, 88 Washington State 6 10.5
92% 3 Boise State 34 56.6, 179 California - Davis 16 3.6
91% 94 Jacksonville State 52 42.6, 202 Tennessee - Martin 7 11.3
91% 47 Tulsa 27 51.1, 180 Rice 10 23.0
91% 22 Iowa 24 37.7, 119 Arkansas State 21 7.7
91% 20 Brigham Young 35 49.8, 128 Utah State 17 18.2
90% 34 Texas Tech 48 39.9, 144 New Mexico 28 9.3
90% 25 Texas Christian 39 43.2, 127 Southern Methodist 14 10.8
89% 15 South Florida 34 36.7, 104 Syracuse 20 15.0
89% 7 Virginia Tech 34 42.0, 110 Duke 26 12.0
88% 161 Central Connecticut 24 41.9, 236 Sacred Heart 12 13.9
88% 17 West Virginia 35 38.2, 83 Colorado 24 16.6
87% 157 Stony Brook 52 38.1, 214 Presbyterian 14 16.3
87% 146 Dayton 30 32.3, 235 Morehead State 15 11.4
87% 41 South Carolina 38 37.4, 147 South Carolina State 14 7.3
86% 207 Drake 34 41.3, 243 Valparaiso 14 16.4
86% 67 Baylor 31 36.6, 145 Kent State 15 16.4
85% 77 New Hampshire 57 34.1, 188 Towson 7 13.3
84% 229 Charleston Southern 47 43.0, 245 Savannah State 10 8.3
84% 125 San Diego State 34 35.9, 192 New Mexico State 17 18.0
84% 121 Northeast Louisiana 48 35.3, 185 Florida International 35 17.5
84% 6 Ohio State 33 34.8, 75 Indiana 14 10.8
83% 95 Central Florida 32 34.4, 151 Memphis 14 18.4
82% 118 Eastern Washington 38 40.7, 210 Idaho State 3 22.2
82% 84 Holy Cross 42 37.8, 194 Northeastern 21 19.5
81% 117 Brown 28 39.1, 163 Rhode Island 20 25.1
81% 69 Central Michigan 20 35.9, 158 Buffalo 13 20.1
80% 135 Northern Arizona 35 32.3, 204 Northern Colorado 27 14.4
80% 74 Harvard 28 31.1, 162 Lehigh 14 15.4
79% 51 Villanova 28 35.0, 91 William & Mary 17 19.6
78% 90 Southern Illinois 30 32.8, 182 Western Illinois 10 18.0
77% 187 Samford 16 27.2, 211 Western Carolina 3 14.4
76% 170 Fordham 34 38.7, 206 Old Dominion 29 24.0
73% 198 Bucknell 14 26.1, 217 Georgetown 6 17.4
72% 120 Pennsylvania 30 27.4, 171 Dartmouth 24 18.8
72% 81 Delaware 27 28.6, 152 Maine 17 20.2
72% 32 Wake Forest 30 27.9, 59 North Carolina State 24 18.1
71% 221 Tennessee State 23 25.2, 231 Southeast Missouri Sta 17 17.1
71% 159 Albany 27 29.2, 209 Saint Francis - Pennsy 6 19.0
69% 208 Duquesne 34 16.5, 219 Robert Morris 20 9.1
69% 44 Notre Dame 37 29.2, 56 Washington 30 22.2
68% 48 Pittsburgh 35 33.3, 78 Louisville 10 27.2
68% 31 Wisconsin 31 32.2, 73 Minnesota 28 26.1
68% 14 Alabama 38 28.5, 50 Kentucky 20 21.1
67% 218 Tennessee Tech 31 29.8, 228 Austin Peay 23 23.9
65% 199 Bryant 6 35.1, 200 Wagner 2 29.9
65% 70 Kansas State 24 25.6, 92 Iowa State 23 20.9
64% 42 Penn State 35 20.8, 72 Illinois 17 16.2
63% 216 Howard 7 23.6, 224 Winston-Salem 3 18.8
63% 115 Colgate 45 23.1, 116 Cornell 23 18.4
62% 126 Temple 24 25.2, 164 Eastern Michigan 12 21.8
61% 122 Wyoming 30 26.9, 148 Florida Atlantic 28 24.0
61% 109 Northern Illinois 38 23.8, 103 Western Michigan 3 21.0
60% 232 North Carolina A&T 23 22.3, 230 North Carolina Central 17 20.1
60% 114 Nevada - Reno 63 27.2, 111 Nevada - Las Vegas 28 24.2
60% 76 East Carolina 21 27.1, 106 Marshall 17 24.4
60% 30 Boston College 28 24.1, 26 Florida State 21 21.3
60% 29 Georgia Tech 42 24.1, 60 Mississippi State 31 21.3
59% 11 Southern California 30 22.3, 21 California 3 20.2
59% 9 Auburn 26 32.5, 23 Tennessee 22 30.9
55% 203 Morgan State 24 20.2, 222 Bethune - Cookman 13 19.1
54% 205 Jackson State 22 29.3, 195 Southern 14 28.4
51% 10 Louisiana State 20 30.5, 16 Georgia 13 30.2
49% 233 Marist 34 18.3, 220 Campbell 13 18.4
49% 61 Navy 16 31.8, 57 Air Force 13 32.0
48% 113 Toledo 37 35.0, 133 Ball State 30 35.3
47% 93 Elon 19 27.9, 101 Furman 12 28.6
43% 89 Appalachian State 30 31.2, 98 The Citadel 27 33.4
43% 37 Stanford 24 19.5, 24 California - Los Angel 16 20.9
41% 191 Gardner - Webb 27 32.6, 193 Virginia Military 23 34.4
41% 71 Mississippi 23 14.5, 79 Vanderbilt 7 17.2
40% 53 Michigan State 26 33.6, 28 Michigan 20 36.0
39% 131 Georgia Southern 26 23.8, 139 Wofford 21 26.6
38% 201 North Dakota 27 31.0, 176 South Dakota 12 34.5
37% 240 Jacksonville 27 22.1, 227 Davidson 21 28.0
37% 55 Arkansas 47 32.6, 35 Texas A&M 19 36.5
36% 165 Montana State 26 19.9, 134 Weber State 21 27.4
34% 123 Idaho 31 25.9, 82 Colorado State 29 31.1
33% 197 Southern Utah 38 37.4, 153 Texas State - San Marc 16 42.6
33% 169 Tulane 17 19.0, 156 Army 16 26.3
33% 107 Ohio 44 22.9, 100 Bowling Green 37 29.1
29% 168 Eastern Kentucky 36 13.1, 141 Eastern Illinois 31 21.2
29% 108 Lafayette 31 14.4, 86 Yale 14 21.9
28% 215 Prairie View 35 16.3, 178 Grambling 32 27.2
28% 39 Miami - Florida 21 12.6, 2 Oklahoma 20 30.1
24% 186 Columbia 38 14.3, 155 Princeton 0 25.4
23% 212 Sacramento State 31 26.0, 190 Portland State 14 38.4
21% 138 California Poly 21 18.5, 66 South Dakota State 14 31.3
21% 99 Northwestern 27 28.2, 63 Purdue 21 41.1
21% 65 Oregon State 28 17.6, 33 Arizona State 17 30.0
20% 154 Hofstra 24 15.6, 62 James Madison 17 31.9
20% 87 Virginia 16 14.8, 58 North Carolina 3 29.2
19% 150 Illinois State 27 23.1, 97 North Dakota State 24 37.9
18% 242 Butler 25 19.0, 160 San Diego 24 47.7
18% 142 Louisiana Tech 27 24.0, 54 Hawaii 6 39.4
18% 85 Maryland 24 18.2, 18 Clemson 21 34.6
15% 166 Alabama - Birmingham 30 21.3, 68 Southern Mississippi 17 38.7
13% 196 Missouri State 17 9.8, 112 Youngstown State 7 32.9
12% 149 Texas - El Paso 58 22.4, 36 Houston 41 42.6
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
15 0.84 27 0.98 21 0.70 28 0.85 10 1.10 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 101 65 74.3 0.87
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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