prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
92% 204 Old Dominion 38 44.4, 245 Savannah State 17 15.2
92% 185 Dayton 38 41.4, 244 Valparaiso 7 7.3
92% 151 Central Arkansas 42 35.7, 214 Nicholls State 13 8.2
92% 136 Harvard 37 34.2, 212 Princeton 3 6.2
92% 132 McNeese State 36 40.3, 186 Southeast Louisiana 35 20.2
92% 120 Middle Tennessee State 62 34.5, 179 Western Kentucky 24 13.5
92% 117 Stephen F. Austin 42 46.5, 178 Sam Houston State 3 26.6
92% 113 Northern Arizona 40 52.0, 226 Idaho State 12 13.6
92% 112 Lafayette 26 38.3, 163 Fordham 21 17.8
92% 103 Arkansas State 27 38.2, 139 Florida International 10 21.5
92% 100 Syracuse 28 33.1, 133 Akron 14 20.4
92% 95 Marshall 27 32.9, 137 Alabama - Birmingham 7 15.6
92% 92 Central Florida 49 39.9, 171 Rice 7 21.3
92% 78 Rutgers 27 24.8, 140 Army 10 13.3
92% 74 Montana 45 45.6, 200 Sacramento State 30 16.8
92% 72 Southern Mississippi 43 39.0, 160 Tulane 6 13.2
92% 58 Villanova 36 48.5, 181 Rhode Island 7 6.8
92% 46 South Carolina 14 25.2, 106 Vanderbilt 10 6.0
92% 28 Fresno State 34 47.4, 175 New Mexico State 3 10.8
92% 21 Ohio State 38 30.5, 66 Minnesota 7 7.2
92% 15 California 49 42.7, 111 Washington State 17 14.6
92% 7 Cincinnati 41 47.0, 82 Louisville 10 16.0
92% 6 Boise State 54 44.4, 98 Hawaii 9 18.2
92% 4 Southern California 42 34.6, 43 Oregon State 36 10.2
91% 216 Jackson State 25 24.7, 243 Mississippi Valley Sta 16 10.5
91% 198 Tennessee - Martin 38 35.0, 224 Murray State 24 22.2
91% 64 Southern Illinois 27 35.1, 142 Youngstown State 8 12.7
91% 54 Houston 38 43.3, 101 Southern Methodist 15 27.9
91% 3 Florida 29 35.4, 62 Mississippi State 19 11.2
90% 193 Tennessee Tech 28 31.5, 229 Southeast Missouri Sta 16 15.6
90% 97 Elon 45 29.4, 152 Tennessee - Chattanoog 10 10.0
90% 75 William & Mary 24 29.8, 123 James Madison 3 16.6
90% 68 Troy State 50 47.6, 153 North Texas 26 22.2
90% 20 Oklahoma State 34 34.7, 81 Baylor 7 20.0
89% 130 South Carolina State 21 37.0, 208 Hampton 9 15.9
89% 91 Liberty 20 45.6, 210 Charleston Southern 13 14.0
89% 85 Northern Illinois 27 25.2, 156 Miami - Ohio 22 10.2
89% 1 Texas 41 34.7, 29 Missouri 7 22.1
88% 116 Weber State 28 29.8, 187 Northern Colorado 20 13.6
88% 2 Oregon 43 36.1, 41 Washington 19 21.3
87% 203 Wagner 49 39.1, 236 Sacred Heart 28 21.9
87% 49 Purdue 24 34.6, 94 Illinois 14 19.2
87% 22 West Virginia 28 30.8, 52 Connecticut 24 18.3
86% 86 New Hampshire 18 27.4, 146 Hofstra 10 18.0
85% 191 Delaware State 35 17.7, 211 Morgan State 22 7.2
85% 166 Texas State - San Marc 20 43.9, 221 Northwestern State 17 32.3
85% 9 Alabama 12 29.1, 14 Tennessee 10 16.7
84% 158 Southern Utah 35 32.4, 170 North Dakota 10 25.5
84% 99 Western Michigan 34 28.3, 115 Buffalo 31 20.1
84% 38 Utah 23 21.0, 57 Air Force 16 12.3
83% 232 Marist 24 20.3, 242 Morehead State 14 13.0
83% 162 Stony Brook 16 26.4, 189 Coastal Carolina 10 15.3
83% 129 Holy Cross 42 30.9, 145 Colgate 28 24.0
83% 67 Nevada - Reno 70 35.5, 79 Idaho 45 28.9
83% 13 Louisiana State 31 28.0, 26 Auburn 10 17.3
82% 150 Wofford 35 27.3, 197 Western Carolina 26 17.4
82% 102 Appalachian State 52 41.8, 134 Georgia Southern 16 30.0
82% 71 Duke 17 36.0, 90 Maryland 13 28.3
82% 40 Navy 13 36.6, 63 Wake Forest 10 27.3
82% 32 Kentucky 36 36.7, 84 Northeast Louisiana 13 16.4
79% 149 Brown 34 32.3, 182 Cornell 14 26.2
78% 202 Virginia Military 31 33.1, 227 Presbyterian 20 27.8
78% 138 California - Davis 34 32.6, 184 Portland State 31 22.3
78% 60 Richmond 34 29.3, 73 Massachusetts 12 20.1
78% 31 Arizona 27 28.2, 50 California - Los Angel 13 21.5
78% 10 Oklahoma 35 28.0, 27 Kansas 13 20.9
77% 188 Lehigh 35 21.4, 218 Bucknell 16 15.1
77% 157 Albany 35 29.6, 195 Monmouth 10 22.0
77% 131 Eastern Washington 35 26.0, 154 Montana State 24 18.3
77% 56 Central Michigan 24 32.0, 83 Bowling Green 10 26.1
77% 23 Notre Dame 20 31.1, 34 Boston College 16 24.4
75% 53 Kansas State 20 29.9, 59 Colorado 6 24.4
74% 180 Central Connecticut 24 25.1, 209 Bryant 23 20.2
74% 141 Ball State 29 26.9, 176 Eastern Michigan 27 21.0
73% 206 Drake 21 22.9, 234 Davidson 16 16.5
73% 143 Pennsylvania 9 13.7, 144 Yale 0 10.0
70% 192 Northeastern 27 26.9, 190 Towson 7 23.1
68% 44 Stanford 33 26.1, 47 Arizona State 14 23.3
67% 119 Nevada - Las Vegas 34 32.7, 147 New Mexico 17 29.9
67% 96 Northwestern 29 28.5, 87 Indiana 28 25.5
67% 36 Pittsburgh 41 23.3, 37 South Florida 14 20.0
64% 183 Prairie View 16 28.1, 199 Southern 14 25.3
64% 168 Florida A&M 34 28.0, 165 Norfolk State 20 25.2
62% 228 North Carolina A&T 30 16.9, 235 Howard 19 15.4
62% 30 Iowa 15 21.7, 42 Michigan State 13 19.3
59% 18 Georgia Tech 34 25.5, 48 Virginia 9 24.2
57% 39 Florida State 30 21.5, 65 North Carolina 27 20.8
57% 16 Clemson 40 19.5, 33 Miami - Florida 37 18.6
55% 11 Texas Christian 38 27.2, 17 Brigham Young 7 26.8
41% 114 Florida Atlantic 51 32.6, 128 Louisiana - Lafayette 29 33.7
41% 107 Temple 40 29.9, 110 Toledo 24 30.8
39% 88 South Dakota State 24 22.0, 61 Northern Iowa 14 24.1
37% 238 Butler 23 22.0, 241 Campbell 16 24.4
35% 239 Saint Francis - Pennsy 31 19.9, 223 Duquesne 14 23.0
33% 35 Penn State 35 22.3, 24 Michigan 10 24.9
32% 164 The Citadel 38 29.0, 126 Furman 28 35.5
27% 125 Utah State 23 24.8, 104 Louisiana Tech 21 29.1
25% 233 Winston-Salem 16 16.2, 222 Bethune - Cookman 10 23.5
24% 240 Alabama State 24 12.1, 205 Alcorn State 17 23.1
24% 51 Mississippi 30 24.5, 12 Arkansas 17 29.4
22% 194 Dartmouth 28 24.5, 173 Columbia 6 29.9
20% 220 Jacksonville 34 20.7, 207 San Diego 16 29.7
15% 109 San Diego State 42 24.7, 77 Colorado State 28 34.7
12% 213 Austin Peay 24 18.5, 169 Eastern Kentucky 20 29.0
11% 155 Missouri State 21 18.0, 124 North Dakota State 17 29.8
9% 161 Eastern Illinois 28 11.4, 108 Jacksonville State 20 32.5
9% 127 Kent State 20 15.1, 80 Ohio 11 29.2
9% 70 Iowa State 9 9.9, 25 Nebraska 7 30.4
8% 231 Indiana State 17 14.9, 167 Western Illinois 14 33.3
8% 118 Texas - El Paso 28 21.4, 55 Tulsa 24 36.1
8% 93 Texas A&M 52 19.2, 8 Texas Tech 30 50.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
6 1.15 13 0.95 23 0.97 33 1.06 36 0.91 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 111 89 90.7 0.98
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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