prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 109 Jacksonville State 55 35.2, 186 Tennessee Tech 28 8.8
91% 19 Penn State 31 38.9, 93 Indiana 20 11.9
90% 104 Montana 38 37.4, 183 Northern Colorado 10 6.6
90% 79 Northern Illinois 26 32.3, 134 Ball State 20 12.1
90% 62 Northern Iowa 34 44.1, 178 Western Illinois 0 5.5
90% 4 Texas Christian 55 32.9, 38 Utah 28 11.7
89% 141 Montana State 27 32.5, 180 Sacramento State 17 16.5
89% 119 South Carolina State 37 39.4, 208 Morgan State 13 8.2
89% 39 Air Force 45 34.8, 102 Nevada - Las Vegas 17 12.5
88% 153 Colgate 29 40.2, 225 Bucknell 14 12.2
88% 139 Maine 41 34.4, 179 Rhode Island 17 17.9
88% 67 Southern Illinois 44 34.8, 158 Missouri State 24 6.0
88% 11 Louisiana State 24 38.4, 92 Louisiana Tech 16 4.6
88% 9 Oklahoma 65 39.7, 55 Texas A&M 10 15.5
87% 132 North Dakota State 56 41.0, 223 Indiana State 17 15.1
87% 106 Hawaii 24 35.8, 164 New Mexico State 6 15.1
87% 6 Boise State 63 53.2, 98 Idaho 25 14.7
87% 3 Oregon 44 38.2, 44 Arizona State 21 14.3
86% 203 Austin Peay 24 22.5, 216 Tennessee State 21 14.6
86% 184 Coastal Carolina 41 36.8, 233 Presbyterian 37 14.9
86% 91 Northeast Louisiana 21 47.6, 181 Western Kentucky 18 17.6
86% 61 Richmond 49 47.8, 238 Georgetown 10 2.0
86% 7 Ohio State 27 24.6, 33 Iowa 24 7.5
86% 2 Florida 24 31.3, 48 South Carolina 14 10.0
86% 1 Texas 47 44.8, 73 Baylor 14 12.5
85% 147 California - Davis 28 34.7, 175 North Dakota 20 22.3
85% 140 Brown 14 37.7, 190 Dartmouth 7 18.0
85% 60 Villanova 49 41.5, 195 Towson 7 5.0
85% 20 Brigham Young 24 45.8, 150 New Mexico 19 13.5
84% 199 Southern 34 25.2, 237 Alabama State 24 11.8
84% 142 Eastern Illinois 49 37.6, 193 Tennessee - Martin 13 18.0
84% 129 Army 22 37.5, 210 Virginia Military 17 10.7
84% 113 Western Michigan 35 37.1, 168 Eastern Michigan 14 22.9
84% 45 Kentucky 24 28.8, 82 Vanderbilt 13 18.8
84% 42 California - Los Angel 43 31.0, 117 Washington State 7 14.0
84% 5 Alabama 31 29.6, 51 Mississippi State 3 14.2
83% 222 Bryant 35 22.9, 236 Saint Francis - Pennsy 12 13.5
83% 213 Bethune - Cookman 21 24.4, 240 Howard 10 17.5
83% 173 Grambling 47 42.0, 220 Texas Southern 33 21.8
83% 112 Liberty 51 36.9, 197 Gardner - Webb 28 15.1
83% 88 Middle Tennessee State 34 32.9, 133 Louisiana - Lafayette 17 15.9
83% 57 Central Michigan 56 43.5, 120 Toledo 28 21.3
83% 49 Navy 35 42.0, 108 Delaware 18 20.3
83% 24 Oregon State 48 35.7, 50 Washington 21 23.1
83% 23 Arkansas 56 44.5, 70 Troy State 20 24.1
83% 14 Georgia Tech 49 39.8, 75 Duke 10 23.4
83% 12 Virginia Tech 36 40.3, 99 Maryland 9 15.9
82% 176 Prairie View 34 33.2, 228 Alcorn State 14 18.7
82% 21 Pittsburgh 27 28.5, 34 Notre Dame 22 20.9
81% 218 San Diego 13 27.8, 242 Morehead State 7 16.0
81% 202 Alabama A&M 13 26.9, 211 Jackson State 5 19.0
81% 83 Temple 56 26.4, 123 Akron 17 19.6
81% 78 Louisville 10 31.7, 96 Syracuse 9 20.6
81% 13 Clemson 43 38.3, 76 North Carolina State 23 23.0
80% 241 Campbell 17 28.7, 245 Valparaiso 3 20.3
80% 187 Central Connecticut 20 30.5, 204 Monmouth 19 21.6
80% 8 Cincinnati 24 37.9, 31 West Virginia 21 23.1
79% 111 Utah State 24 37.6, 151 San Jose State 9 24.4
78% 174 Norfolk State 21 25.5, 196 Delaware State 16 20.2
78% 135 Youngstown State 30 26.1, 149 Illinois State 18 19.4
77% 215 Jacksonville 36 31.5, 234 Butler 7 21.6
77% 100 Southern Methodist 35 36.2, 118 Texas - El Paso 31 27.3
77% 90 Bowling Green 35 31.3, 137 Miami - Ohio 14 21.8
77% 66 Minnesota 16 30.4, 86 South Dakota State 13 19.3
77% 35 Wisconsin 45 37.1, 59 Michigan 24 23.9
76% 30 Boston College 14 25.6, 64 Virginia 10 18.8
73% 87 William & Mary 20 30.7, 101 New Hampshire 17 23.9
71% 217 Southeast Missouri Sta 49 25.4, 221 Murray State 13 20.7
71% 77 Iowa State 17 24.9, 80 Colorado 10 21.0
70% 214 Nicholls State 28 31.5, 224 Northwestern State 21 24.8
64% 138 Stephen F. Austin 41 32.4, 170 Southeast Louisiana 10 28.1
64% 26 California 24 31.0, 27 Arizona 16 26.9
64% 18 Oklahoma State 24 33.4, 17 Texas Tech 17 29.7
63% 145 Florida International 35 39.9, 156 North Texas 28 34.1
63% 121 Eastern Washington 41 34.7, 152 Southern Utah 28 30.7
63% 29 Georgia 31 33.5, 25 Auburn 24 29.2
63% 22 Nebraska 31 23.7, 43 Kansas 17 21.5
62% 126 Holy Cross 28 33.3, 128 Lafayette 26 29.7
62% 94 Ohio 27 26.3, 114 Buffalo 24 23.7
61% 163 Tennessee - Chattanoog 31 26.0, 159 The Citadel 28 24.4
58% 130 Weber State 27 32.5, 124 Northern Arizona 9 30.9
58% 127 McNeese State 30 38.2, 157 Texas State - San Marc 27 35.9
58% 47 Michigan State 40 31.2, 63 Purdue 37 29.7
53% 37 Missouri 38 27.3, 58 Kansas State 12 26.8
48% 41 Florida State 41 28.7, 54 Wake Forest 28 29.0
46% 56 Nevada - Reno 52 33.5, 40 Fresno State 14 34.5
45% 115 Alabama - Birmingham 31 30.0, 122 Memphis 21 30.8
42% 36 Mississippi 42 23.6, 16 Tennessee 17 24.8
41% 188 Columbia 30 23.0, 198 Cornell 20 23.7
41% 172 Rice 28 32.2, 154 Tulane 20 34.4
40% 125 Florida Atlantic 35 30.6, 105 Arkansas State 18 33.3
39% 235 Duquesne 45 23.5, 239 Sacred Heart 42 25.3
39% 226 Robert Morris 37 23.4, 206 Wagner 10 25.0
38% 74 Southern Mississippi 27 22.8, 84 Marshall 20 24.5
38% 65 East Carolina 44 23.8, 71 Tulsa 17 26.0
37% 212 Idaho State 41 27.4, 192 Portland State 34 31.1
37% 72 Central Florida 37 30.4, 46 Houston 32 35.7
35% 144 Furman 30 30.3, 155 Georgia Southern 22 34.4
34% 229 Marist 14 16.5, 231 Davidson 6 20.0
33% 194 Dayton 23 24.5, 191 Drake 6 29.8
33% 107 Wyoming 30 23.5, 103 San Diego State 27 27.8
32% 207 Hampton 25 24.1, 171 Florida A&M 0 31.2
32% 89 Appalachian State 27 29.5, 81 Elon 10 34.7
30% 185 Lehigh 35 21.7, 177 Fordham 28 26.5
29% 189 Sam Houston State 17 25.2, 162 Central Arkansas 14 30.8
26% 200 Charleston Southern 30 21.6, 166 Stony Brook 27 28.5
25% 69 Rutgers 31 18.1, 32 South Florida 0 26.4
24% 52 North Carolina 33 17.4, 15 Miami - Florida 24 25.0
22% 136 Pennsylvania 17 13.5, 131 Harvard 7 19.5
20% 161 Samford 27 16.5, 148 Wofford 24 25.2
19% 232 North Carolina Central 18 18.9, 230 Winston-Salem 10 24.5
19% 182 Northeastern 14 18.2, 143 Hofstra 13 26.5
19% 167 South Dakota 50 18.3, 146 California Poly 48 29.5
19% 85 Northwestern 21 18.9, 68 Illinois 16 27.7
17% 219 Princeton 24 9.1, 160 Yale 17 25.2
14% 110 James Madison 17 15.4, 97 Massachusetts 14 23.9
13% 28 Stanford 55 19.0, 10 Southern California 21 33.8
12% 201 Western Carolina 24 13.2, 165 Eastern Kentucky 7 29.8
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
11 0.64 23 0.75 20 0.86 60 1.03 4 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 118 84 90.4 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
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