prob rnk winning_team actual pred rnk losing_team actual pred
91% 80 Louisiana Tech 55 34.7, 151 San Jose State 20 10.6
90% 8 Boise State 42 55.6, 166 New Mexico State 7 -2.4
88% 2 Texas 13 32.8, 18 Nebraska 12 15.6
83% 59 Villanova 46 35.9, 92 New Hampshire 7 21.5
82% 98 Montana 51 39.8, 127 Stephen F. Austin 0 23.5
81% 5 Oregon 37 40.4, 21 Oregon State 33 24.5
79% 52 Central Michigan 20 31.0, 87 Ohio 10 20.6
78% 116 Arkansas State 24 36.5, 181 Western Kentucky 20 22.5
77% 43 Wisconsin 51 34.6, 100 Hawaii 10 22.1
75% 46 Connecticut 29 30.0, 53 South Florida 27 23.2
71% 32 West Virginia 24 25.8, 61 Rutgers 21 19.5
62% 58 Fresno State 53 27.3, 72 Illinois 52 25.6
62% 10 Cincinnati 45 32.5, 24 Pittsburgh 44 29.6
61% 13 Georgia Tech 39 30.8, 17 Clemson 34 28.7
57% 120 Florida Atlantic 28 36.8, 141 Florida International 21 35.2
54% 216 Texas Southern 30 28.7, 206 Southern 25 28.1
40% 55 East Carolina 38 32.9, 35 Houston 32 35.9
29% 69 William & Mary 24 22.9, 70 Southern Illinois 3 26.9
27% 3 Alabama 32 18.6, 1 Florida 13 24.2
23% 56 Washington 42 24.1, 22 California 10 31.0
22% 89 Appalachian State 35 25.7, 63 Richmond 31 35.9
17% 30 Arizona 21 21.6, 16 Southern California 17 31.0
14% 235 Butler 28 16.5, 177 Central Connecticut 23 32.9
results by prob (number of games, actual/expected):
50%-59% 60%-69% 70%-79% 80%-89% 90%-99% 100%
3 1.17 3 1.62 9 0.74 6 0.80 2 1.11 0 0.00
total results (num_games,num_right,expected,num_right/expected): 23 16 17.2 0.93
actual/expected = 1 -- model right on
actual/expected > 1 -- model probabilities too low (more wins than expected)
actual/expected < 1 -- model probabilities too high (less wins than expected)
Back to: Bassett Football Model Home Page
Please email comments or questions to bfm@BassettFootball.net